The Poll-y Trinity #sorry…
In addition to measuring support for the #euref, the polls form the 3 main companies over the weekend measured party support over the weekend. Have been too busy to run all 3, but have done a ‘poll of polls’ for them, with the averages all within the margin of error for each party in each poll, although some more than others of course…
The findings were as follows;
As you can see, significant variance for FG and SF. ULA were polled for by L/MB, and they will be very dissapointed to register 1% (comapred to 2.57% in #ge11, although the moe is big here for them, and you’d need a good few polls before you took this as read. However, ominously for them, the OTH rating is generally down, and it does appear that a more nationalist position is gaining more traction in the face of #euref than the international socialist alternative, and that is something they will be nervy about. Nevertheless, I’ve done my normal formula for them and OTH, assuming that they have a similar proportion to normal, and will do so until there are 3-4 polls that show were they are….Greens are measured in 2, so I’ve averaged them at the 1.5% their 1% & 2% would indicate, slightly below the 1.85% they got last year.
Anyways, the spreadsheet projects….
Very good for SF, but also for FF, who would stay ahead of LP on seats as well as votes on the average of these figures. LP will be nervy on these figures. Basically they’ve been pushing a referendum which isn’t popular with a significant proportion of their voters, and its perhaps unsurprising that they are down in 2 of the 3 findings (RedC having them up may just be a blip). They will of course be watching this closely, and if they are in this territory come October, the Budgetary process could become quite strained…
Other than that, not much to add, so I’ll hit return and go back to the missus….