Irish Polling Report

A place to discuss Irish opinion polls

Better late than never…

with 5 comments

OK, been busy, but finally got around to the RedC in last Sunday’s Business Post.  Not going to ponder on results especially, just to say that , in the absence of a ULA total I’m taking them with SP and assuming a similar proportion of them among the OTH (as SP do, incidentally, rating at 1%).  Also I’ll continue using current constituencies until they are amended by the Oireachtas (although proportions are unlikely to change hugely as a result of that, even if overall seat numbers are reduced a smidgeon)

Anyways, this is what it says….

Projected result % seats
FG 28.00% 50
LP 12.00% 23
FF 26.00% 45
SF 16.00% 24
ULA/SP* 2.70% 4
GP 2.00% 1
OTH* 13.30% 19
  100.00% 166

FF closing in on FG on those figures (I’m assuming they get a good transfer from SF)  SF, on the other hand barely ahead of LP, despite looking like they might leave them for dead some months ago…this would appear to suggest that the FF revival is, in part, taking from SF as well as from FG/LP.

It may sound obvious, but on this projection, FF regaining votes is bad news for all other parties.  Sometimes when one party does well, another party does disproportionately badly as a result, and others get away relatively lightly, but on this showing they would be taking seats across the board, showing the reach of the FF vote…evenly spread can see you do very badly on a low vote, but recover remarkably well if you pass above a certain threshold.  On these last few polls, it appears to me that they have risen above that threshold, and being in opposition are unlikely to fall below it again, IMO.

It may be time to get used to it….

*Drink* *Arse* *Feck*

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Written by Dotski

March 1, 2013 at 10:18 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

5 Responses

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  1. Hi Dotski, how would you call the Meath By Election?…

    Tom

    March 6, 2013 at 4:55 pm

    • Tom,

      Sorry, forgot to get back to that. On a uniform swing, FG and FF would be battling it out for 1st place c.30%, and LP and SF for 3rd at c.14%. However, these elections rarely go by uniform swing (hence Nulty being the only Govt candidate elected since 1981, and even he was pretty much on an anti-Govt platform).

      FG have of course the additional sympathy factor, but their candidate seems to have a position on abortion which is out of line with majority sentiment in the country, and Labour may try to exploit that. While the ‘rural’ nature of the constituency has been played up by some commentators, a very large portion is commuter belt, and it should be remembered they elected an openly gay TD – this is not Leitrim. Hard though to see LP catch FG on first preferences, even if latter fumbles this ball badly LP would need good transfers from SF to catch them, which I don’t see happening on this occasion, and while they seem to be campaigning hard (and well with a good candidate), victory would present them with candidate selection difficulties in #GE16. The effect might see a bigger LP vote than otherwise at the expense of FG, and then a poorer transfer to their Govt partners. Either way, my gut doesn’t see this being the second Govt bye-election success in 32 years.

      FF have to be considered in with a good chance here. There’s a decent FF core vote, they are up in the polls, and their candidate would be seen as best placed to beat the Govt. I thought a strong Independent candidate would emerge here, but apparently not (unless their strength is lying below the national media). While uniform swing would put them 20% or so shy of the winning post, they would be (a) expected to pick up “give the govt a kick” voters, who will ultimately vote FG or LP in #GE16 but want to register their displeasure with service cuts, tax increases or proposed cuts to their pay; and (b) SF transfers to FF, again the context of giving the Govt a kick, are likely to be higher than normal. While it’s possible that a good performance *could* see LP do better on SF transfers (if they manage to be ahead, which is far from certain), LP will probably be eliminated before it came down to FF/FG, and those SF-LP transfers would be more likely to favour FF over FG.

      SF don’t have the vote or transfers to win this time, but will be hoping to finish ahead of LP, with a view to being contenders in #GE16. FWIW, I think they may do this.

      So basically, while you can never be sure of these things, I think it’s FF’s to lose,

      Dotski

      March 16, 2013 at 10:47 am

      • FG have of course the additional sympathy factor, but their candidate seems to have a position on abortion which is out of line with majority sentiment in the country, and Labour may try to exploit that.

        *That* worked out well, didn’t it?

        Perhaps it’s time for Labour to reconsider just how high a priority the general public (as opposed to the Twittersphere) gives to these issues. A more productive approach might be to focus on the economy, and on demonstrating how Labour can moderate FG/Troika instincts – if it can, of course; if it can’t, then it might be time to think about what exactly Labour are achieving in government.

        PaddyM

        March 28, 2013 at 9:45 pm

  2. Instinct says Fine Gael will take it.

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