Irish Polling Report

A place to discuss Irish opinion polls

Rogue C?

with 2 comments

EDIT : I missed Act being signed into law on Wednesday, tomorrow’s post on new boundaries will be one based on what would be actual boundaries – my first!

“@gavreilly: @dotski_w FYI: Electoral Amendment (Dáil Constituencies) Act 2013 signed into law last Wednesday”

You’ll probably have heard that there’s a RedC poll in tomorrow’s SBPost.  I’ve run it through the spreadsheet for the {current} Dail Constituencies …

Projected result % seats
FG 28.00% 56
LP 13.00% 26
FF 24.00% 40
SF 14.00% 21
ULA 3.24% 4
GP 1.85% 0
OTH 15.91% 19
  100.00% 166

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Written by Dotski

March 23, 2013 at 7:29 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

2 Responses

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  1. The ULA has split three ways over the past few months. The SP and WUAG left the alliance and now there seem to be two different groupings, the United Left and the ULA. Whatever unity existed in the last general election is now torn asunder. How the “ULA” could get 4 seats is unclear. Would it not just be easier to add them to “Others” or group them separately if info is available?

    ringacoltig

    March 24, 2013 at 11:23 am

  2. Hi,
    Yes, it’s problematic, all the more so now the SP has left them. I do see the SP/PBP/WUAG as very distinct from the other OTH votes though (even Pringle etc) and so they are in a sense ‘different’ and I need to see them separated from the OTH total if I am to accurately extrapolate how they do in terms of seats. For example, if I left them in OTH in Tipperary, I couldn’t tell how much of that vote is Healy, and how much is Lowry (well, not without doing a lot of manual re-working). By leaving separate I can see that Healy is projected to get 10.9% FPV, and looking at transfers available he appears to be elected (just).

    In the latest version I refer to it as ULA and SP as a sub-total, hopefully it’s understood.

    As for how they’d get 4 seats, I have Daly pretty safe (in part thanks to the extra seat in Fingal), Higgins also just under a quota, Collins slipping in with just under 75% of a quota on FPVs thanks to a fragmented field (just ahead of LP2 and FF1) and as I say Healy scraping in in Tipp. RBB loses out as a result of the Ceann Comhairle seat reducing the number of seats up for grabs in Dun Laoghaire.

    Dotski

    March 24, 2013 at 2:49 pm


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