Irish Polling Report

A place to discuss Irish opinion polls

Never been to Meath….

with 3 comments

By-election count tomorrow in #mhe13 and I’ll not dwell on it too much, except to say I think FF are likely to win it, and why.

Were this a General Election, and there was a uniform swing (based on the last RedC) the likely FPVwould be  as follows;

FG 32.8%

FF 26.8%

LP 14.0%

SF 13.1%

OTH 13.3%

However, this is a by-election, and famously there’s just been one such victory for a Govt party candidate since the early 1980s, and in Patrick Nulty’s case it has been argued that he wasn’t *really* a Govt candidate anyway (indeed, the candiate who described herself as the Govt candidate in that election was humiliated .  Even without an adjustment in the FPV, it would be neck and neck between FF/FG, and so it is, in my view, impossible to look past FF in this election, particularly as they are likely to be far less transfer repellent from SF/OTH than in #GE11 , with many of those voters looking to kick the Govt (including some who will stillvote FG or LP in a GE).

Some will point to the sympathy factor for the FG candidate  but a quick scan of by-elections since 1981 will show similar circumstances which repeatedly didn’t yield dividends, and I would be very surprised if this was any different.  Indeed, if the 2 by-elections in this parliament both saw a Govt party win, after 30-odd years of Govts losing similar, it would be quite stunning.

People will also query if FF could do so well, but even before their recent poll recovery, they surprised many with their performance in the Dublin West by-election , edging into second ahead of Cllr Ruth Coppinger and well ahead of FG.

In short, I think FF will challenge FG for top of the poll, and even if they fall short (which I think they will, just) SF transfers will be enough to put them over the line.  LP had, IMO a good candidate, but this wasn’t one he could be expected to win, and if he stay north of 10% it will be a surprise.

Prediction….? Totally unscientific, but here goes…

FG 31%

FF 27%

SF 19%

LP 9%

DDI 7%

OTHS 7%

SF to elect FF on the final count.

Finally, a little song to see us out…

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Written by Dotski

March 28, 2013 at 12:27 am

Posted in Uncategorized

3 Responses

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  1. Expect huge number of SF Non-transferables……

    Joe Hickey

    March 28, 2013 at 12:33 am

  2. Joe,
    Quite possible they will be high, but Irish ppl like to use more than 1 preference in elections. Historically SF were an exception, but that was when they were c.3% and had just come from abstentionist politics. Most of their current supporters aren’t part of that tradition, but are rather ex-FF voters (and some ex-LP voters) and so don’t have that habit. No doubt many will still plump, but I suspect enough will give FF #2 to elect Byrne.
    But sure I’ll probably be proved wrong by the time you read this!! We’ll see, eh?

    Dotski

    March 28, 2013 at 12:42 am

  3. I`m inclined to agree with your view Dotski, not at all happy about ff but would be upst if fg got it.

    Tawdy

    March 28, 2013 at 9:54 am


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