Irish Polling Report

A place to discuss Irish opinion polls

Well, if Berlusconi can do it….

with 2 comments

A leaked poll on the Twittersphere suggests that FF are now ahead of FG.  According to what ppl are saying, the Sindo will have a Millawrd/Brown survey tomorrow showing the Soldiers of Destiny 3% ahead of their nearest competitors   Poll findings  along with IPR projections, are as follows;

Projected result % seats
FG 24.00% 44
LP 12.00% 21
FF 27.00% 49
SF 16.00% 22
ULA & SP ** 3.04% 4
GP * 2.00% 1
OTH 14.96% 17
  99.00% 158

FF climb is in line with the trend in other polls, but this one shows them ahead on seats, which if it happened in a GE would be quite a story.

A bad poll for FG, who would have hoped that the by-election would have bolstered support for them, but the normal advice about those elections holds, they are often local/temporary things, and not good national predictors.  FF will be pleased, given how the Govt won a second by-election (against recent tradition) to see that nationally they appear to be continuing to make traction.

Labour will be relieved.  The B&A poll, despite their lack of track record, was so low that many thought it signalled a collapse in their vote, especally in the context of the Meath East by-election.  But RedC did a poll around the same time that had them up to 13%, and this one has them up 3% also on the previous MB/L poll, and so while I doubt things are hale and hearty with the LP vote, they are more likely to be where the 2 established (and generally successful  pollsters have them, than where B&A (who have little in the way of track record) had them.

SF appear to have scaled back from earlier heights  and are are averaging just about enough to shade it on seats from LP, assuming the latter get decent FG transfers.  The dynamic between them and FF, who are chasing a similar vote in some instances  will be one to watch over the coming months.

ULA/SP remain a mess to project, but one does one’s best.  On these figures, they aren’t far off an additional seat in Cork NC, but that’s too hard to call, really.

Anyways, sin é for tonight.

D

 

EDIT:

Figures have been confirmed as above, with 35% being undecided.  This figure will vary from company to company, as they have different methods for ‘pushing’ reluctant declarees, but this is high.  General opinion internationally is to assume DKs either don’t vote (and 35% no-vote is not surprisingly high), or go to parties in the proportions that other people do (some assume they have a slight bias towards how they personally voted previously).  No doubt some will argue this shows potential for another party, although given the failure of “Others” to make headway there, the success of such a project would, IMO, be unlikely to be very successful

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Written by Dotski

April 13, 2013 at 8:58 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

2 Responses

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  1. What were undecideds 2 years out from the last (expected) GE? i.e. in early 2009-ish. 35% seems about right.

  2. Hi Keith,

    Not sure, there’s press coverage of a MB poll in the Indo in Feb 2009, but no reference as far as I can see to DKs, which I suspect means they weren’t remarkable. http://russell-banks.blogspot.ie/2009/02/consideration-of-irish.html

    Different methodology, but RedC had 26% between DKs and would not votes in Jan 2009 ( http://redcresearch.ie/blog/do-undecided-voters-desire-for-new-party) this actually peaked highest just before #GE11 (@30%) and the current RedC DK/WV (30-33% for a year, now I look at it) isn’t actually much lower than this one. Both would, however, indicate a higher DK of about 6%+, which might have some impact on turnout, but suggest a ‘new’ party would be unlikely to make an enormous difference to electoral arithmetic unless it managed to capture most of what are probably a pretty disparate group.

    D

    Dotski

    April 15, 2013 at 7:25 pm


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