Irish Polling Report

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Another RedC out today, which suggests little movement from the recent polls across all the main companies (B&A being somewhat of an outlier…).  Poll findings (and IPR projections) as follows;

Projected result % seats
FG 28.00% 50
LP 11.00% 18
FF 25.00% 44
SF 16.00% 23
ULA & SP ** 3.07% 4
GP * 1.85% 1
OTH 15.08% 18
100.00% 158

No massive movement from recent offerings of the other main polling company, so not a lot new to say – GP I have being lucky in Dublin North, taking a 5th seat that isn’t really falling to anyone but have Sargant as last man standing….  Dublin Rathdown is also very hard to call.

Recent polls including this show a significant (if not catastrophic) drop in LP support, and rise in FF.  A number of reasons one could ascribe to this, although, being a PS worker, I’ve unsurprisingly been conscious of the CP2 effect – Brendan Howlin in particular is getting little love among my work colleagues.  Today’s polls asks related questions of the general public which suggest (perhaps surprisingly to some) that most voters – including those in the private sector, have more sympathy for the PS unions than you’d believe following mainstream media outlets.

1. “The government should cut public service pay.”

Agree: 30%

Disagree: 50%

Don’t know: 20%

2. “The government should accept the unions position and should try to renegotiate the Croke Park agreement.”

Agree: 56%

Disagree: 23%

Don’t know: 21 %

 

Fewer than a third supporting PS paycuts?  Calls for Govt to “accept the unions position and try to renegotiate”? Not sure any pundit would have seen this coming, and it suggests that LP’s position seems to have painted themselves into a corner here.  They are losing PS support, but there’s no corresponding private sector boost, with those voters perhaps feeling that after 2 paycuts any problems we still have with the Exchequer aren’t going to be fixed by going back for a third round.  But the only means by which the cuts could be avoided (or reduced, at least) would appear to be a tax on higher earners , which FG have set themselves full against.  Given the larger party is likely to lose out on the abortion issue to Labour (should the coalition survive), it’s hard to see them move on this also.

As I said, hard to see it not end in tears….

Other Question asked included ;

3. “The government should ease off on austerity by reducing pubic spending cuts.”

Agree: 54%

Disagree: 25%

Don’t know: 21%

4. “If the government has any spare cash left over, it should reduce taxes for working people.”

Agree: 68%

Disagree: 18%

Don’t know: 14%

Number 3 is unsurprising, particularly in the context of the PS question, Q4 though is almost a joke question…who, exactly, envisages the Govt having spare cash “left over”…?!  Biggest “If” I’ve ever seen in a polling question…

 

Anyways, must head.  Have a nice Sunday.

D

 

 

 

 

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Written by Dotski

April 28, 2013 at 1:11 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

7 Responses

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  1. Reducing pubic spending cuts? Love to know what that would involve!!!

    Ruairí Ó HEithir

    April 28, 2013 at 7:41 pm

    • There’s a few ways proposed, but the only realistic one involves higher taxes.

      Dotski

      April 29, 2013 at 8:42 pm

  2. Where do you get the 35% undecided from? RTE report 22% http://www.rte.ie/news/2013/0427/386928-croke-park/

    However, given that Red C have funny ways of cutting the number of undecided, I don’t know if that is the ‘raw’ undecided figure, or not.

    Cian P

    April 29, 2013 at 9:41 am

    • Sorry, are you talking about this post? Not sure I mentioned 35% for this poll…

      Dotski

      April 29, 2013 at 8:44 pm

  3. A very odd person has been trolling the blog with allegations that I am, er, a troll! No doubt drunk, god love him…

    Dotski

    August 24, 2013 at 10:56 pm

  4. I don’t know who you are, but I’m delighted I’ve upset you so much!

    Dotski

    August 24, 2013 at 11:08 pm

  5. For anyone reading the last couple of posts, the IP address that was trolling me (on a Saturday night!) 109.77.84.121 as it happens, has been blocked as Spam, so his (rather hysterical) rants are blocked from view now (sorry!).

    Dotski

    August 25, 2013 at 9:10 am


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