A Public Service

Another RedC out today, which suggests little movement from the recent polls across all the main companies (B&A being somewhat of an outlier…).  Poll findings (and IPR projections) as follows;

Projected result	%	seats
FG	28.00%	50
LP	11.00%	18
FF	25.00%	44
SF	16.00%	23
ULA & SP **	3.07%	4
GP *	1.85%	1
OTH	15.08%	18
	100.00%	158

No massive movement from recent offerings of the other main polling company, so not a lot new to say – GP I have being lucky in Dublin North, taking a 5th seat that isn’t really falling to anyone but have Sargant as last man standing….  Dublin Rathdown is also very hard to call.

Recent polls including this show a significant (if not catastrophic) drop in LP support, and rise in FF.  A number of reasons one could ascribe to this, although, being a PS worker, I’ve unsurprisingly been conscious of the CP2 effect – Brendan Howlin in particular is getting little love among my work colleagues.  Today’s polls asks related questions of the general public which suggest (perhaps surprisingly to some) that most voters – including those in the private sector, have more sympathy for the PS unions than you’d believe following mainstream media outlets.

1. “The government should cut public service pay.”

Agree: 30%

Disagree: 50%

Don’t know: 20%

2. “The government should accept the unions position and should try to renegotiate the Croke Park agreement.”

Agree: 56%

Disagree: 23%

Don’t know: 21 %

 

Fewer than a third supporting PS paycuts?  Calls for Govt to “accept the unions position and try to renegotiate”? Not sure any pundit would have seen this coming, and it suggests that LP’s position seems to have painted themselves into a corner here.  They are losing PS support, but there’s no corresponding private sector boost, with those voters perhaps feeling that after 2 paycuts any problems we still have with the Exchequer aren’t going to be fixed by going back for a third round.  But the only means by which the cuts could be avoided (or reduced, at least) would appear to be a tax on higher earners , which FG have set themselves full against.  Given the larger party is likely to lose out on the abortion issue to Labour (should the coalition survive), it’s hard to see them move on this also.

As I said, hard to see it not end in tears….

Other Question asked included ;

3. “The government should ease off on austerity by reducing pubic spending cuts.”

Agree: 54%

Disagree: 25%

Don’t know: 21%

4. “If the government has any spare cash left over, it should reduce taxes for working people.”

Agree: 68%

Disagree: 18%

Don’t know: 14%

Number 3 is unsurprising, particularly in the context of the PS question, Q4 though is almost a joke question…who, exactly, envisages the Govt having spare cash “left over”…?!  Biggest “If” I’ve ever seen in a polling question…

 

Anyways, must head.  Have a nice Sunday.

D