Labour poll in Dun Laoghaire
I’ve heard from a pretty good source that Labour ran a poll recently in Dun Laoghaire. Only figures I heard were FF, which were 7% Andrews and 6% Hanafin (whatever the sample size that’s well within the margin of error, but good-ish news for Andrews, given the 2007 result). If anyone reading has had sight of the overall results, please share!
13% for FF is pretty much the territory my spreadsheet was putting them, which is interesting (I had suspected that the swing away might be slightly less, given the social profile of the constituency). It would leave them fighting for the last seat, but depending on a lot going right for them to avoid falling short. A 50/50 split like that isn’t great for them, the 13% would be expected to drop to about 11.5% after transfer leakage (if lucky). If the GP were about 4-5% (again hopeful), they could expect to be brought to about 13% on their transfers, and they could expect about 1.5% in SF transfers, pushing them to 14.5%. Poor vote management by Gilmore could see them pick up about 2% in leaked transfers from there. If that put them ahead of the second FG candidate (which it probably would), Sean Barrett would be elected on other FG transfers, and there’d be a good 5-7% surplus at least going, and 2-3% of those going to FF would probably get them scrape the last seat (without reaching the quota).
The effect of this poll if true (and I assume if I’ve heard it, so has Hanafin) will be interesting. This is a hard constituency to call. Many would consider it FG heartland, and yet in 2002-2007 they held none of the 5 seats. It’s had 2 left TDs before, at a time when the left vote nationally was significantly lower than current polls suggest, and some would suggest that with Cuffe, there were two of the current incumbents elected on a broad left platform. PBP’s Richie Boyd Barrett makes it all even harder to call, given the irrelevance of the “Others” national total to many micro-parties’ fortunes. Add to that 3 Ministers, all fighting for their political lives, including one who is considered a potential (if long-shot) chance of Taoiseach if there’s an anti-Cowen heave and Lenihen isn’t keen, add the loss of a seat in the revisions…
Very hard one to call, so it would be nice if anyone out there could share the full figures…..
Irish Polling Report 
Not bad!
Interesting to hear that Andrews is ahead of Hanafin, I’d have thought she was the front-runner, but I suppose the demotion didn’t do her any favours. I’d not right her off though.
Any chance of 2 Labour and 1 PBP, do you think?
Elaine
August 23, 2010 at 8:53 pm
Thnx Hon – first to comment (no change there then!)
“Any chance of 2 Labour and 1 PBP, do you think?”
Not really. I’ve not seen this poll, but LP got 16% here last time, so with uniform swing they could get into the 40s, but some of that would be at PBP’s expense (if it happened). Left/Green/Republican vote was about 34% here last time, and while it might top 50% next time, that’s still another 50% between FG and FF, and there’s enough of the FF/FG vote (IMO) that will transfer between themselves to ensure 2 right-wing/non-left/call them what you will seats.
Still, what do I know, eh? 🙂
Dotski
August 23, 2010 at 9:53 pm
Although fairly well to do, it probably works against FF as a far higher than average % of voters would have lost money / pension funds etc with the collapse of the Bank Shares. Also even though they say they wont bring it in, the idea of a property tax wont go down well here either especially as the house prices would be higher than the average.
Fianna Fail were slaughtered here in the Local Elections having just one councillor elected between Blackrock, Ballybrack and Dun Laoghaire LEAs. Things have surely got worse for them since.
Were certain of at least one Fine Gael and one Labour.
I’m assuming Cuffe is as good as gone, so its a question if his transfers as well as Sinn Feins will go to Boyd-Barrett or Labour.
I’d have to think Fine Gael will win two seats but you never know.
As you say a fascinating constituency.
2 Labour and 1 PBP is a possibility if FF totally implode, Gilmore for Taoiseach looks a real possibility , RBBs vote holds up from the locals and Fine Gael manage their vote badly.
Plus I think the boundary change will not favour FG/FF.
irishelectionliterature
September 9, 2010 at 2:00 pm
I see John Drennan mentioned an internal FF poll in the Sunday Indo
http://www.independent.ie/national-news/polls-leave-fianna-fail-fearing-total-decimation-2124732.html
“in Dun Laoghaire the polls suggest that the high profile FF Ministers Mary Hanafin and Barry Andrews are both in real danger of losing their seats. Fine Gael, in contrast, is poised to win two while Labour will almost definitely take a seat.”
irishelectionliterature
September 21, 2010 at 12:21 pm