Irish Polling Report

A place to discuss Irish opinion polls

Welcome to Irish Polling Report

with 15 comments

Dotski here.  If you’ve found this blog, you’re probably a regular on politics.ie.  I’ve been known to post there a bit, particularly following Irish opinion polls, when I crunch the figures through my trusty spreadsheet.  While I’ll keep posting there, it occurred to me during the recent (2010) UK General Election that a dedicated site for discussion of polls (as opposed to slagging off each other’s parties), along the lines of the excellent UK Polling Report,  would be a good thing.  So rather than wait for someone else to do it, I thought I would myself.

While I’ll be running the spreadsheet simulations to calculate the number of seats each party is likely to win based on each reputable poll, I’ll also be interested in any ‘internal polls’ that people get their hands on, so if any readers get their hands on these, please let me know, and we can consider the implications they’d have in that constituency if true, and what sort of national figures they would be consistent with.   While many of these are notoriously unreliable, so is 99% of the internet, and unlike most of that they can be quite fun!  And genuine ones, in fairness, often are interesting in that they can indicate what parties are likely to do in terms of candidate strategy, particularly when national polls are indicating figures very different to any previous General Election (I write this in August 2010).

So what are the rules for anyone wishing to post?  Well, no political point scoring.  Politics.ie is a perfectly good enough a place for that.  The idea of this space is proper analysis of polls.  Also, play the ball, not the poster.  If you think someone has made a crazy extrapolation, say why, don’t say it’s because they are clinically insane (even if you know it’s true.  Actually, especially then).

I’ve no idea yet if this will be read by many (edit: 6 weeks on it is, which is much appreciated!), but I would hope that, particularly as we approach the next election, this will be a useful place for people trying to work out what will happen in what promises to be the most interesting – and unpredictable – Irish election since the 1940s.  You can post anonymously, but if you’re a politics.ie regular it’d be nice if you used that name here.  If you’d like to contact me, you can get me at irishpollingreport@gmail.com

While there’s an archive of posts on the right hand side, you might be interested in the following posts/threads;

My most recent constituency-by-constituency analysis based on national polls

Analysis of constituency polls in Dublin SE Donegal SW, Cork SC, Cork NW, and Dun Laoghaire

There also stuff in there specifically on the relative merits of the polling companies, notably the RedC/ MRBI and Landsowne discrepancy, and somewhat odd aspects of Quantum Research’s work.

And for those who just think the polls must be wrong, because there will always be ‘local factors’ and rural issues that make big changes impossible, you may find this interesting.

So, in summary, I hope you enjoy the posts, that anyone who can will share interesting analysis and information, and spread the word!

Dotski.

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Written by Dotski

August 22, 2010 at 11:39 am

Posted in Uncategorized

15 Responses

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  1. Great idea, well done. I’ve enjoyed your analysis on P.ie and will look forward to perusing it in future untroubled by all the white noise back at the ranch.

    James Lawless

    September 3, 2010 at 1:13 pm

  2. Cheers James, many thanks for the kind words, hopefully it will meet a need.

    D

    Dotski

    September 3, 2010 at 9:06 pm

  3. We need more stuff like this. Well done Dotski.

    Drithleóg

    September 4, 2010 at 9:24 am

  4. Cheers, Drithleóg, will do my best to ensure it is worth visiting, particularly after polls come out (can’t wait for the next one!)

    Dotski

    September 4, 2010 at 10:03 am

  5. Good luck i hope it takes off

    ymmek

    September 7, 2010 at 9:53 pm

  6. Cheers ymmek, have enjoyed your posts on the Limerick thread!
    d

    Dotski

    September 7, 2010 at 10:05 pm

  7. Hi,

    all polls with a sample of 1000+ from December 2005 (Red C, TNS-MRBI, Millard-Brown and IMS) are available at the link below, along with an applet to display and compare them

    http://www.guthanphobail.net/pobalbhreitheanna.htm

    CQ

    September 11, 2010 at 12:10 am

  8. Go raibh maith agat, a CQ!

    Dotski

    September 11, 2010 at 12:24 am

  9. heard today that FG did a poll in limerick city i heard it from 3 different sources one of whom is a journalist.The only info i got was that the 2nd lab candidate is doing well,if you have any FG contacts you might be able to check it out

    ymmek

    December 17, 2010 at 4:21 pm

  10. Is there a link to the history of opinion polls in Ireland? Im very interested in looking at them

    RahenyFG

    January 12, 2011 at 10:43 pm

    • Nothing definitive I’m aware of, a mixture of google and the local library with Newspapers is your best bet. Recent polls on CQ’s blog (link at the side). There was a study that some TCD student did that I found but was very user-unfriendly

      Dotski

      January 12, 2011 at 11:00 pm

      • Thanks I’ll try that. I know Irish Times Opinion Polls on parties go back to 1982 but a history of them is very hard to find on both their site and google.

        RahenyFG

        January 14, 2011 at 1:41 am

  11. Looked up Irish polling from New York City. Looks like you are doing excellent work with modest resources. Have followed UK Polling Report in the past election.

    By the way, had to do a good deal of research to begin to understand the Irish electoral system. Why not just have run-off elections in the individual constituencies–that would still allow “Third” and “Fourth” party candidates a chance to get in the runoff and get elected, even if you had multimember districts? Though maybe your system is better than the British system, which allows minority governments to run up huge parliamentary majorities with no constitutional checks and balances.

    I can’t imagine that most voters truly understand the complexity of voting strategies in your system. But then, every system has its strengths and flaws.

    Hal Porter

    January 27, 2011 at 8:30 am

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