MRBI II

Part II of MRBI will, apparently, be released in tomorrow’s IT. They have favoured us with the following snippet

When asked if they would like to see Brian Cowen remaining as Taoiseach and leader of Fianna Fáil until the next election 61 per cent said he should step down while 29 per cent said he should remain and just 10 per cent had no opinion.

So, is that him gone? Well, possibly not….

…among Fianna Fáil voters the position was reversed with 61 per cent saying he should remain and 32 per cent saying he should step down.

ahhh … right, most non-FF voters want him to go, and most FF voters want him to stay …. and the number of people who want him to go is actually less than those supporting parties looking for him to go. Not really saying anything there, I think….

Of interest, given the amateurish attempts by Quantum regarding who should succeed him (70% Lenihen, 30% Martin, 0% all others, according to them)

Mr Lenihan was supported by 39 per cent of voters followed by Micheal Martin on 18 per cent, Mary Hanafin on 8 per cent and Dermot Ahern on 6 per cent. Other candidates attracted the support of 5 per cent while 24 per cent had no opinion.

Sounds a bit more accurate, doesn’t it? No doubt there’ll be more snippets tomorrow….

Well, that’s that argument sorted….?

As I outlined here, there has been much debate as to the MRBI adjustments, and a good deal of p.ie bandwidth devoted to the effect of the new methodology. As I stated in the post linked, I’ve been of the opinion that the facts didn’t stack up to it making a significant difference, and it would appear that I was broadly correct, with the changes going in the opposite direction to that assumed.

When people were asked who they would vote for if there was a general election tomorrow, the figures for party support when the undecided voters are excluded, compared with the last Irish Times poll on June 11th last, were: Fianna Fáil, 24 per cent (up three points); Fine Gael, 24 per cent (down three points); Labour, 33 per cent (up four points); Sinn Féin, 8 per cent (down two points); Green Party, 2 per cent (down two points); and Independents/ Others, 9 per cent (no change).

I’ve just run this through the spreadsheet, and it produces the following seat totals;

LP 66
FG 45 (a good number of these the result of large LP surpluses)
FF 40
SF 7
GP 0
OTH 8

FG/FF on 85 seats between them … who will Shatter be cuddling on these figures….?

Compared to Lansdowne/MB that’s LP down 1, FG down 9, FF up 1, SF up 6, and OTH up 3, which would suggest that the SF vote in that poll was a blip (and the RedC similarly out in the opposite direction). FG are depending on LP transfers to come second on these figures, and so it would appear that their tactics this week have been less than successful. Certainly on this poll, it’s hard to see FG or FF come even close to LP on seats, and there’s no reason that Gilmore would choose FF over FG to be his junior partner. In fact, if this was reproduced in a GE, the only barrier to a LP/FG coalition would be the temptation Enda would have to do a ‘historic’ deal with FF, “burying civil war politics”, him taking Taoiseach and and new FF leader Brian Lenihen continuing in the role of Finance Minister (all in the national interest, of course).

In practise, he’d probably not even had this option, as a number of FG deputies would have been elected on LP surpluses (e.g. Brian Hayes), and might conceivably cross the floor rather than agree to that. So it’d be Tanaiste Kenny, or more likely the leadership would skip a generation. What price Leo the Prince?

It would be interesting though to hear Kenny asked if he’d serve under Gilmore if this was what the result was, or if he’d try to do a deal with FF… Funny old game, politics…..

The poll also shows a moderate recovery in FF’s fortunes, and while they’re not at a critical mass to take much advantage of this yet, another rise on top of this would steady their nerves. Indeed, another poll that showed them 1-2% ahead of FG might even tempt them to go to the people, as they’ve known for a while they couldn’t win the election, but if they run while Kenny is still leader, they could emerge as the official opposition, and ahead of FG. Silver linings in there, alright, and they know that Kenny won’t survive much more of this, and could soon be replaced.

For LP, it shows them on the brink of a very big breakthrough, but the suspicions linger that they’re not ready for it electorally. This is two polls in a week that show them getting more seats than the number of candidates they propose fielding. Even the 66 here excludes another 5 or so where they could pull it off with a better local strategy than I’ve assumed.

And who comes out of this the worst? Well, in my opinion, it’s not FG. It’s RedC. They are now consistently an outlyer against all the other polls (including those which have track records as least as good as them), and their defenders are running out of excuses.

Maybe they need a new leader.

The final chapter…..

…. of this post – sorry it took so long. Any longer and I’d have had to add MRBI to it.

Louth
While this should be increasing to 5 seats, the unpleasantness about JOD resulted in the swash-buckling Seamus “T” Kirk taking over as CC, making this a 4-seater with an additional FF seat added automatically. A parcel of Meath E – I understand quite pro-LP is also going in, which makes it a little more volatile.

L/MB
FF 19%-2
FG 37%-2
LP 30%-1
SF 11%

A Gilmore Gale in the Lansdowne/MB poll, which should see the Drogheda based LP candidate (probably Nash) elected, and take the spare seat. FG would also gain, on these figures, with McGuinness taking the seat from SF’s Morgan, given the collapse of the SF vote in this poll. Dermot Ahern would, on these figures, be elected on transfers…. it would however vindicate Kirk’s selection as CC, given they wouldn’t have got 2/5 on these figures.

RedC
FF 20%-2
FG 36%-2
LP 15%
SF 20%-1
GP 5%

Very close contest for the last seat, but I’d probably have FG2 shading it from LP1, on the grounds that MCGuinness (sp?) is North of the county, and GP transfers, which LP would need on these figures, are from that end of the constituency. That may not be the outcome of course, and it would be very much re-count material.

Mayo
Given the freakishly high FG vote last time (boosted by the then popular Mayo Manager John O’Mahony), the fact that Bev was an Indo and is now FF, the fact that Dr Jerry was an Indo and is now LP, the likelihood that ex-LP Cllr Kilcoyle will run as an Indo … all make this one a hard one to call

L/MB
FF 25%-1
FG 54%-3
LP 15%-1

The good Dr to get in again, this time courtesy of a national swing. FF to lose out, although who? I’ve got it as Bev, but given she was an Indo before I’ve nothing to base that upon, other than a perhaps over-optimistic faith in human nature. Plus Calleary is likely to be a Minister whenever FF do come back, and I suspect local FF supporters will take that long term view.

RedC
FF 26%-1
FG 54%-3
LP 8.3%-1
SF 7.7%

Same outcome, but much much closer, Cowley staying ahead of FG4 on SF and IND transfers, and then getting sufficient surplus from FG3 to take the 4th seat, with the 5th between the 2 FF candidates.

Meath E

L/MB
FF 18%
FG 29%-1
LP 41%-2 (yes, yes, I know….)

LP’s Hannigan would take one seat from FF, and on these figures, LP2 (if such a creature existed) would take the other. Unlikely to see a running mate here for Hannigan, unless LP stay in the 30s.

RedC
FF 21%-1
FG 31%-1
LP 27%-1
SF 6%

Here, FF hold one of the seats, although interestingly LP would not be in trouble if they ran 2 candidates, with SF and OTH transfers making them comfortable for the single seat.

Meath W

L/MB
FF 27%-1
FG 36%-1
LP 28%-1
SF 8%

LP gain at the expense of FF, probably Brady, but with local man Shane Cassels attacking Dempsey, it’s unclear if the seat at cabinet will save him. He should probably hold on, but if you’re looking at high profile casualties, this could be one.

RedC
FF 29%-1
FG 36%-1
LP 14.4%-1
SF 15.9%

Much closer for LP, with them getting ahead of SF on transfers. If SF do poll 10% and LP aren’t much over 20%, LP are depending on polling more than FG2 and then getting a surplus from the election of English.

Roscommon/Leitrim

The Ming factor will be one to watch here. Luke Flanagan may have a high profile campaign, but with Indos set to have no leverage in the next Dail, he may find his support softer than he’d wish. If he does well though, he’ll damage ex-Indo Kelly, who is competing with him for the same votes.

L/MB
FF 24%-1
FG 43%-1
LP 20%-1

LP would gain a historic seat, with transfers pushing them ahead of FG2.

RedC
FF 25%-1
FG 43%-2
LP 11.8%
SF 12.5%

LP lose out – I have them getting ahead of SF on transfers, but never catching FG2 on the RedC figures.

Sligo / Leitrim

L/MB
FF 26%-1
FG 44%-1
LP 19%-1
SF 8%

O’Keefe takes a seat for LP, although presumably not the same as (ex-?) CPI member Declan Bree did in the Spring Tide. The seat would be at the expense of one of the 2 “Ind” FFers who I expect to be back on the ticket by then.

RedC
FF 27%-1
FG 43%-2
LP 11%
SF 16%

This time, the RedC surge for SF puts them ahead of LP, and FG benefit with a second seat, again at the expense of FF.

Tipp Nth
Lowry country. The spreadsheet assumes no responsibility for the predictions here, in much the same way Newtonian physics don’t work at the sub-atomic level….

L/MB
FF 20%
FG 20%-1
LP 25%-1
Lowry 28%-1

LP’s “The Quiet Man” Alan Kelly gets elected on a shoe-string budget, leaving FF (and Maire Hoctor) bereft of a seat here on these figures.

RedC
FF 21%-1
FG 21%-1
LP 16%
SF 6%
Lowry 30%-1

With RedC, LP lose out, with FF getting enough Lowry transfers to stay ahead of LP, regardless of SF no.2s.

Tipperary Sth

L/MB
FF 30%-1
FG 24%-1
LP 23%-1
Healy 16%

Prendergast takes a seat from FF – most likely Martin Manseragh (I can’t see
Mattie losing out – he’ll take their only seat if he runs as an Indo).

RedC
FF 32%-1
FG 25%-1
LP 15%
SF 5.5%
Healy 17%-1

Healy this time is the one to take the FF seat, with LP coming up short.

Waterford

The retirement of Martin Cullen (and the possibility of a by-election victor on the scene before the GE) makes this a harder one to call than most.

L/MB
FF 21%-1
FG 31%-1
LP 39%-2

On these figures, LP2 (possibly the by-election victor) would take Cullen’s seat, with no other changes.

RedC
FF 24%-1
FG 33%-2
LP 24%-1
SF 10%

On RedC, FG take the final seat instead, with SF and LP2 a distance behind. LP1 is safe though, whether they run 1 or 2 candidates.

Wexford

L/MB
FF 27%-1
FG 35%-2
LP 32%-2
SF 4%

LP2 (probably Enniscorthy based Pat Cody) would take a FF seat fairly comfortably, possibly Browne losing to Connick.

RedC
FF 29%-1
FG 36%-2
LP 22%-1
SF 11%-1

On the RedC figures, a big swing to SF means that they are the beneficiaries of FF’s fall from grace in Wexford.

Wicklow

The retirement of Liz McManus, the possibility of a Nicky Kelly solo-run, and Joe Behan’s intentions make this a very hard one to call.

L/MB
FF 17%-1
FG 30%-2
LP 39%-2

LP gain one from FF, probably Behan’s. The mooted 3 candidate strategy would not endanger the 2nd seat on these figures, and would have a long-shot chance if they pulled in extra votes at the expense of FG and/or FF.

RedC
FF 20%-1
FG 31%-2
LP 23%-1
SF 8%
GP 5%
Behan 10%-1

LP 2 loses out to Behan (if he runs). LP3 would need to pull in extra votes to be a benefit, rather than a hindrance to their chances. Definitely a constituency where LP can’t decide on final line up until they know what range of support they’re looking at.

So that’s what last weeks polls suggest in each area. I hope it’s been worth the wait!

Dotski

Three of Four

Part Three

A continuation of this

Galway E

L/MB
FF 17%-1
FG 48%-2
LP 26%-1 (yes, yes, I know….)

On the Lansdowne/Millward Brown poll, LP would come from way behind to taking a seat here, on these figures. It seems a lot, even to me, and if they fell short of that, I’d not be surprised, even with Gilmore being from here. However, if they did worse on the same national total, it’d have to be somewhere else.

RedC
FF 19%-1
FG 50%-2
LP 14%-1

Looks a bit more reasonable to me, I have to say, although tellingly it’s the same outcome. Colm Keaveney looks good to take a seat here, triggering a mass exodus of transsexuals from Tuam

Galway W
This is a tough one, as I’m not sure whether to include Michael D as a LP candidate, given he’s said it will depend on the timing of the election vis-a-vis the Presidential election. I’ve assumed he’s standing, so if he doesn’t you can assume a worse LP result

L/MB
FF 14%-1
FG 24%-1
LP 37%-2
OTHs 22%-1

It would appear that FF would hold onto a single seat here on these figures (O’Cuiv), if the swing in this poll materialised and MDH was running. Noel Grealish would also hang on, and LP2 would be elected on transfers.

RedC
FF 17%-1
FG 26%-1
LP 23%-1
OTHs 26%-2

On these figures, the FF seat would fall not to LP2, but to a second leftwing Indo, making Galway West the most diverse constituency delegation in the nest Dail.

Kerry N -Limerick
L/MB
FF 18%-1
FG 36%-1
LP 25%-1
SF 16%

Cliffhanger! LP take a seat, but the identity of the loser goes to a re-count. SF may do better in FG transfers than FF in a lot of places, but the general Limerick area may not be one of them.

RedC
FF 18%-1
FG 34%-1
SF 26%-1
LP 15%

Red C figures, LP well down (on other polls, that is…), SF well up, would see LP fighting it out with FF for the last seat. Very very close, and LP could definitely get it, but I’ve FF just a bit too far ahead to be pulled in without very good FG transfers, which Arthur may not pull off.

Kerry S

L/MB
FF 25%-1
FG 27%-1
LP 29%-1
H-R 17%

LP gain from the Healy-Raes, rather than FF.

RedC
FF 26%-1
FG 28%-1
LP 20%-1
H-R 18%

The same result, but much closer. The 2 polls together suggest that this constituency is between LP and IND for the last seat.

Kildare N

L/MB
FF 14%
FG 23%-1
LP 48%-2
Murphy 10%-1

On these figures, LP would gain one from FF, and the second FF seat would also fall to either Indo Catherine Murphy or LP3, with Murphy favourite to shade it, as a result of poor LP vote management.

RedC
FF 18%-1
FG 26%-1
LP 33%-1
Murphy 13%-1

In this scenario, LP2 loses out, but Murphy takes one of the 2 FF seats.

Kildare S

L/MB
FF 33%-1
FG 20%-1
LP 41%-1

FG take a seat from FF, nudging ahead of LP2, who don’t manage their vote sufficiently well enough to pull of a gain.

RedC
FF 37%-1
FG 22%-1
LP 32%-1

Same outcome, just less suspense….

Laois-Offaly

L/MB
FF 45%-2
FG 33%-2
LP 16%-1

LP win back the seat they took in the Spring Tide with Pat “Can Cope” Gallagher. Assuming they find a candidate….. Mental health Minister Maloney would lose the seat.

RedC
FF 46%-3
FG 33%-2
LP 8.6%
SF 8.5%

FF hold on to 3 out of the 5, with LP getting ahead of FG3 on SF transfers, but falling too far short to catch Moloney.

Limerick City

L/MB
FF 22%-1
FG 28%-1
LP 46%-2

Major changes here, a large chunk of FG-friendly votes being pushed out of the constituency, a loss of a seat, two FG finance spokespersons, a disgraced poll-topping former Minister sharing a FF ticket with a junior that many would see as more capable, a SF candidate who brought said Minister down, and a LP looking to capitalise on a Gilmore Gale.

Figures come out with LP and the boundary revision taking one each from FF and FG. I’d like to think O’Dea and Noonan would be the ones to go, but unfortunately I think it will be O’Donnell and Power. Both, however, would be back, IMO, the following election.

RedC
FF 25%-1
FG 31%-1
LP 32%-2
SF 7%

Same outcome, but closer between O’Donnell and Leddin (likely LP2) who gets in on SF transfers.

Limerick County

L/MB
FF 29%-1
FG 43%-1
LP 27%-1

LP pull off a seat at the expense of FF. This constituency has been volatile in the past, with the 3rd seat passing between FF, FG2 and even the PDs (when FG1 didn’t get in!).

RedC
FF 25%-1
FG 45%-2
LP 20%

RedC polling has FG take the seat ahead of LP on the final count

Longford Westmeath

L/MB
FF 24%-1
FG 30%-1
LP 42%-2

On these figures, Mae Sexton takes the last seat ahead of FG, continuing a bizarre LP/PD relationship in this constituency

RedC
FF 26%-1
FG 32%-1
LP 33%-2
SF 6%

As above, only closer.

Final part here

Another 48 hours

Part II of this post

Sorry this took a while, part 2 of 4. I’ll try to get the rest up tomorrow.

Dublin C

L/MB
FF 15%
FG 13% – 1
LP 47% – 2
OTHs 18%-1
SF 5%

A bit of a hard one to call, as there may be a number of strong indos running, and there’s no guarantee that O’Sullivan will be one of them. Perry will have a good chance if she doesn’t (or possibly even if she does) and Christy may jump into the melee and see what happens. Lp may even run a 3rd candidate. But when I run the Lansdowne figures, it’s LP 2 comfortably enough (with LP3 losing out due to poor splitting of the vote), Donaghue getting through (almost by default, given the collapse in SF) and O’Sullivan beating Fitzpatrick on the last count.

RedC
FF 17% -1
FG 14%
LP 32%-2
SF 12%
OTH 23%-1

The significant difference would be FG gaining little in LP surplus loses to FF, who are that bit closer to the line from the start. A 3rd candidate for LP actually makes them a little safer, by reducing Joe’s share of the total LP fpv, and therefore his surplus, from which there’ll be be leakage due to his personal vote. That’d probably be the end of Paschal’s career here – 3 times tipped to win, and a 3-time loser.
Dublin MW

L/MB
FF 13%
FG 21% -1
LP 49%- 3
SF 5%
GP 5%
PBP 3%

LP get 3 seats, gaining one each from FF and the GP, and FG gain one from Mary Harney. Seems unlikely? Well, they are 43% in Dublin in this poll, and 49% is what the spreadsheet is throwing up here. FG for all their bluster aren’t going to go from 0 to 2, they’ll get the one gain and barring a bigger swing, that’ll be that. The GP seat being up for grabs is probably beyond debate (there are rumours that Gogarty may not run) which plays largely into LP’s hands, and that combined with the drop in SF in this poll means that at 49%, LP would be well placed to have 3 candidates ahead of everyone except FG (when the second candidate is eliminated), including FF. Of course a stronger performance by FF would see them take the seat, or a poorer LP one, but if Tuffy goes with one running mate in each ward (Dowd & Jones perhaps) and particularly pushes LP voters in Lucan to give Jones No.1s, they would be very well placed on these figures, with nearly 4 times the FF vote, and transfers from SF to come (transfers from GP aren’t likely to unduly favour FF, I would have thought). It’d be close, certainly, but in the absence of a FF recovery, or a bigger swing to FG, it’d be what looks likeliest.

RedC
FF 15% -1
FG 23%-1
LP 33%-2
SF 12%
GP 7%

LP wouldn’t get a 3rd seat with 3rd candidate, no matter how well managed and FF would then hang on, making it a constituency in Dublin where FF don’t lose a seat. The second LP seat would still appear to be safe enough, even with 3 candidates if they ran them, however it split. SF would have an outside chance of beating Curran, but would probably fall just short.

Dub N

L/MB
FF 18%-1
FG 18%-1
LP 40%-2
GP 8%

Both Govt parties lose a seat to LP – probably not a shock, in the current circumstances.

RedC
FF 21%-1
FG 20%-1
LP 25%-1
GP 11%-1
SP 11%

Assuming LP don’t split the vote well here, LP2 behind SP/GP, and helping Sargant more (based on his personal vote). Last seat is however between GP, SP and LP2. Main FF interest is who takes the remaining seat.

Dub NC

L/MB
FF 19%-1
FG 29%-1
LP 37%-1
FmcG 13%

Assuming 1 LP candidate here, a second would possibly outpoll McGrath, depending on the split, but still there’d be too much ground to make up for LP2 on FF. Haughey would sweat a little, nevertheless.

RedC
FF 21%-1
FG 30%-1
LP 23%-1
FMG 16%

LP still get the seat, but should only run a running mate if they will bring in votes that McGrath would otherwise take. I’d like to see a few more polls with LP over 25% before I’d recommend it.

Dub NE

L/MB
FF 15%
FG 24%-1
LP 52%-2
SF 8%

Two handy seats for LP on these figures, as there was when LP went from 0 to 2 in ’92 (a 4-seater then). FF and SF not even close on these figures.

RedC
FF 17%
FG 26%-1
LP 36%-1
SF 16%-1

The very high polling for SF in the RedC figures puts them back into contention. LP would need to split their vote unreasonably well to win a second. No danger to the 1st seat in 2 candidates, though.

Dublin NW

L/MB
FF 20%-1
FG 11%
LP 58% (yes, I know)-2
SF 8%

The general assumption is that LP can’t win 3 out of 3 anywhere. If the polls showing them over 30% come to fruition, this will be tested. In this poll, LP were up and SF down, and FF only barely beat LP3 as a result of poor split in LP vote and a significant SF non-transferable vote. With the same figures and a well run LP campaign, they’d take the 3 seats. But I reckon they’ll not go for it.

RedC
FF 23%-1
FG 12%
LP 40%-2
SF 19%

Even if they run 3 candidates, whatever the split LP would be sure of 2 seats here, thanks to FG transfers. No chance of the 3rd on those figures, but no harm in trying, given the possibility of polling higher.

Dublin S

L/MB
FF 18%-1
FG 32%-2
LP 44%-2
GP 5%

Well, the swings were always of a higher quality in Dublin South! Two safe as houses seats for LP, one from each coalition partner, and safe to run a third if they wished.

RedC
FF 21%-1
FG 34%-2
LP 30%-2
GP 7%
SF 5%

Same result, but LP in on SF transfers (presumably against FG3). Ryan well behind. A 3rd Lp candidate is unlikely to cause difficulties, and more likely to knock Ryan out even earlier by taking some of his vote, arguably making 2nd seat even safer.

Not that they’ll believe me….

Dublin SC

L/MB
FF 10%-1
FG 16%-1
LP 56%-3
PBP 9%
SF 5%

LP would not only be safe for 3 seats on these figures, but would be competitive for a 4th seat if they ran a Byrne-HUpton-Conaghan-Moynihan ticket. They’d ultimately fall just short, but it would be close enough, and I’d not like to guess who’d win the 3rd seat. FF would probably win the last seat without reaching the quota.

RedC
FF 12%
FG 17%-1
LP 40%-3
SF 12%-1
PBP 11%
Ding-dong battle here. By my reckoning, SF would hold onto this seat from PBP transfers, which would also be helping LP3 across the line ahead of FF1. But it would be very close, and it’s hard to call – SF would be the most vulnerable to a stronger FF challenge, and PBP would be very close also. In the spreadsheet I have them running both Collins (who was Indo last time) and Smith, and there’s some leakage in the transfers. If they ran a single candidate who managed to take all of the votes that would have gone to both of them last time, they’d probably stay ahead of SF and take that last seat.

Dub SE

L/MB
FF 16%-1
FG 22%-1
LP 49%-2
GP 6%

I’ve given the GP a ‘leaders bonus’, but it’s done nothing for them here. On the basis of this poll, the tide is out big time, and there’s little that would appear could save Gormley. LP on the other hand, with a very balanced ticket, appear well placed to deliver on the promise from the LEs and take a second seat, but a comfortable margin. FF’s Chris Andrews would appear well placed, particularly if he doesn’t have a running mate imposed on him.

RedC
FF 18%-1
FG 24%-1
LP 35%-2
GP 10%
SF 6%

Not quite as comfortable, but no change from Lansdowne. At least Gormley gets to contest the last seat with Humphries, but the outcome is the same.

Dub SW

L/MB
FF 14%-1
FG 22%-1
LP 51%-2
SF 9%

This is a constituency where LP could pull in a 3rd candidate, but show no interest in it, from what I can see. If they are 43% in Dublin, they are over 50% here, even losing Rabbitte’s “leaders bonus”, and other left-wing transfers should push them to the 58-9% required on the last count to get a 3rd seat, but Rabbitte is unlikely to run more than one running mate no matter what the situation, I’m given to understand. The beneficiary would, most likely, be FF who’d hold one of their 2 TDs, although they would face a stiff challenge from SF, who would benefit from SP transfers and a fair bit of Labour’s surplus.

RedC
FF 16.7%
FG 23%-1
LP 33.2%-2
SF 17.2%-1

As you can see, much closer here. FF despite having a higher first pref, would lose out to SF who perform much better under RedC, taking the 3rd seat, and LP2 takes the 4th seat on SP transfers. Very very close though, and if you argued FF would take this at the expense of LP, I’d not get into an argument with you – it’d just be too close to call.

Dublin W

L/MB
FF 18%-1
FG 15%
LP 52%-2
SP 13%-1

I’ve made an adjustment to the base here to account for what I believe will be a bigger personal vote for Lenihen here, for reasons I think most of you will understand. LP appear unlikely to run 3 candidates (although there’s merit in the idea, Nulty running to take votes from Higgins, and Kelleher to take votes in the new Swords part of the constituency). Their surplus is likely to help Higgins a bit more than Leo, although I’d not write him off, even on these figures.

RedC
FF 21%-1
FG 17%-1
LP 38%-2
SP 17%

Here, the lower LP vote means no LP surplus to help Joe haul in Leo. It’s also a case where LP running that 3rd candidate could lose them the 2nd seat.

Dun Laoghaire

L/MB
FF 18%-1
FG 24%-1
LP 47%-2
PBP 8%

Well, LP got above their average here last time, they have their leader here now, a bad area for LP has been moved in the revision, and they are 43% in Dublin on this poll, so I guess it’s no surprise that they’d be 47% here. RBB would have have to postpone the revolution for another 5 years. Interestingly, FF would hang on, with a vote that’s a bit better than the LP poll we heard of last month The most interesting part of the count might be which FF Minister hold on at the expense of the other.

RedC
FF 21%-1
FG 27%-1
LP 34%-2
PBP 10%
GP 5%
SF 4%

No change on above, but LP2 depending on transfers from PBP (if GP/SF don’t elect them first).

Continued here…

48 Hours

Two polls, and two very different results. P.ie has been dissecting the results, and predictably, those who prefer the outcome of RedC are arguing that Lansdowne and Millward Brown are somehow unfit for purpose. LP at either 23% or 35%? SF at 4% or 10%? While it would appear that there is a significant vote floating between those two parties, it’s still not enough to explain these variances.

As (I think) I showed in this exchange , Lansdowne/Millward are as good as most, and have in fact been pretty impressive in the past. But RedC have a fine GE record also, even though they’ve been out of sync to a degree with MRBI recently, and particularly the last 12 months.

In fact, the best argument in favour RedC’s methodology is that Quantum Research also disagree with it on LP and SF support rating LP at 33% when undecideds are excluded, which means that QR is closer to MRBI (32%) and Lansdowne/Millward (35%) than RedC. Although personally, I’ve assumed that this is a lack of imagination on the good Doctor’s part, rather than professional excellence on the part of QR.

RedC could of course be out of kilter, as they’ve been disagreeing with MRBI also regarding the level LP are at, although this argument may be resolved in the coming days

MRBI may move with the change in methodology, but if they don’t (and they had LP on 29% without adjustments), that puts RedC on their own, as no-one else is currently putting LP in the 20s, never mind 23%. If MRBI put them at below 25% next week, most analysts (including myself) will believe it). But if MRBI keep them above 26%, RedC are pretty isolated, and from companies with comparable track records to themselves.

Anyways, I told people on p.ie that I’d do a breakdown of the 2 polls by constituency, and (for reasons best known to who knows) I’ll keep my word. Before reading this, please bear in mind that local results always vary somewhat from the uniform swing. This gives you an idea of what that uniform swing is that they’d be deviating from, rather than is some sort of portal into the future. However, if your party over-performs the national swing somewhere, it will under-perform elsewhere. Effectively, unless you’re a small party, the differences will cancel out.

The spreadsheet takes the 2007 results as a base for the distribution of the vote, and makes some small changes, e.g. Regarding PD votes, personal votes, effects of boundary changes etc.

It then computes uniform swings in (a) the vote each party received, and (b) the vote each party didn’t receive (e.g. Non-LP vote down from 90% to 65% is X% etc). The composite of these effects is combined with a further swing which take into account the proportion of the national swing in ’92 experienced in each area (the idea of this is that while LP got big gains then nationally, it was quite low in some areas such as Kerry). The composite of all these votes is them calculated. In each constituency, the total will now be above/below 100%, and each party total is then apportioned up/down to adjust to 100%. National totals are then calculated, and where they are deviating from the input figures, there is an adjustment across the board to bring them back in line. You then have a distribution of votes that adds up, and is remarkably similar in pattern to what has happened in the past when there was significant swings.

Sounds like a lot, but it takes less than a second, running on OpenOffice on a pretty old laptop.

Next, it feeds into 43 constituency tabs. Each of these assumes a percentage of each parties vote will go to particular candidates, and is set up to auto-compute counts when you enter your estimation of how the transfers go. This is a manual job, and is the most subjective part. I’m assuming good transfers between FG and LP, except when there’s a good left-wing candidate present (although FG still get a decent share there also). Better transfers too to SF this time, and also more SF transfer to FG than in the past (but more to LP, about 35-40%). GP / FF about 35-40% each way. A typical LP vote split is 2:1, although late 3rd additions are assumed to do pretty badly (3.5/2/1).

When I’ve finished the final count, I enter the party seats in each tab, and that feeds back to the ‘front’ tab, although if it’s very obvious from the headline figures, I may not bother with the constituency tab, and just enter the seat totals on the front tab.

So that’s how I do it. Disagree with the assumptions? Fine. Do your own, and share the results!

This post would be rather long without breaking it up a bit, so I’ll do that alphabetically (for no better reason than it’s how I’ve laid out the front page of the spreadsheet….). It’s lunchtime and I’ve done the first of 4 instalments (Carlow-Kilkenny to Donegal South-West). I’ll stick this up now, and the other 3 as they’re done (hopefully this evening, other duties permitting…..)

Dotski
————

Carlow-Kilkenny to Donegal South-West

Carlow-Kilkenny
Lansdowne/MB
FF 32% – 2
FG 34% – 2
LP 26% -1
GP 4%

Fairly straightforward. The spreadsheet is adjusted to assume a lower swing against FF on the grounds that McGuiness will tap into a lot of the ex-PD vote for his “rebel” grandstanding (despite his happiness to feed from the trough when offered the opportunity). FG gain from FF, and LP gain from GP, with only a good FF performance (and the lack of a bad one from FG) stopping them taking another seat from FF.

RedC
FF 34% – 2
FG 35% -2
LP 17%-1
SF 7%
GP 6%

The same outcome, but no outside chance of LP getting a second seat. No risk to the single seat from a 2nd LP candidate though (30% in the broad left/green camp) so it would still appear prudent for LP to run 2 candidates. There’s no risk to FG running 3 candidates, as their 2 seats are safe.
————-

Cavan-Monaghan

L/MB
FF 24% – 1
FG 37% – 2
LP 13% – 1
SF 16% – 1

This was a 4-seater last time out, due to Ardal O’Hanlon’s Dad being the CC. FF on these figures would lose 2 seats, one to FG and one to LP who will most likely field Teacher Des Cullen. I’m told that LP in Cavan has seen an a number of new people looking to join, with a new branch to be established in South Cavan, and these could be the bodies who help them over the line here. Unlikely? Well LP couldn’t run a candidate in 1989, but got 8.3% in ’92, when getting 19.5% nationally, i.e. about 43% of their national vote. The same proportion here would amount to 15% in Cavan-Monaghan, so this is far from impossible, particularly given the influx of Dub refugees since then.

RedC
FF 24% – 1
FG 34% – 2
SF 26% – 2
LP 6%

The much lower LP vote in this poll would be a result of SF, a party they are competing with for votes, and who are very strong here, getting much more, as a result of a general swing to them.

There’s a further 10% who would largely be well disposed to LP, but not enough for them to pull in the Cavan SF candidate on these figures. Looking at this, I think LP have to be about 4 times SF’s national polling to be pulling the seat here, e.g. 6% SF and 24% LP.
————-

Clare

L/MB
FF 29% – 1
FG 40% – 2
LP 14% – 1
Breen (Ind)11%
GP 3%

Well, assuming they run a candidate….. LP famously went from no candidate in 1989 to having a TD in ’92 with Dr Bhamjee who pulled in 11.5%. On the basis of this poll, a similar result is likely in Clare this time out.

RedC
FF 30% -1
FG 40% – 2
Breen(Ind) 11% – 1
LP 7%
SF 6%
GP 4%

In the RedC, LP would be likely to lose out to former a Indo TD, should he run. Should he not be in the race, LP are right back in it, fighting it out with FF for the last seat.
——————–

Cork East

L/MB
FF 21% – 1
FG 30% – 1
LP 44% – 2

Fairly straightforward, with the second LP candidate (preumably Mulvihill the Younger) taking a second LP seat at FF’s expense.

RedC
FF 23% – 1
FG 31% – 1
LP 34% – 2
SF 8%
GP 2%

Closer, but still LP would be favourite to take the second seat, regardless of candidate split, given SF and GP transfers are more likely to benefit them than FG, who’d start off 3% behind anyway.
—————-

Cork NC

L/MB
FF 12%
FG 30% – 2
LP 40% -2
SF 5%
SP 5%

LP’s Gilroy gain one seat very handily, and FG2 takes the last seat on SP transfers (with Mick Barry very nearly getting ahead of him – penultimate count being FG2 13.96%, FF1 13.59% and SP on 11.24%). Very tight.

RedC
FF 14%
FG 32% – 2
LP 24% -1
SF 11% – 1
SP 7%

Here LP lose out to SF. No threat to the 1st LP seat though (and it’s still possible if they split the vote fairly evenly), so 2-candidate strategy is justified, particularly as Gilroy is likely to be brining in extra votes.
—————-

Cork NW

L/MB
FF 35% – 1
FG 42% – 1
LP 21% – 1

LP gain the seat, with a vote just over half that of FG (by about 0.5%). A handful of GP transfers, and the FF surplus would have to favour FG 2:1 over LP for the latter to lose out. Not safe, but very probable in these circumstances.

RedC
FF 38% – 1
FG 43% – 2
LP 14%

Rather worse for LP… in this case LP would be transfer fodder for FG.
—————

Cork SC

L/MB
FF 20% – 1
FG 34% – 2
LP 37% – 2
GP 4%
SF 2%

Pretty straightforward, LP’s Paula Desmond gains at the expense of FF. Dan Boyle tweeting about life being sooooo unfair 😦 LOL!

RedC
FF 23% – 1
FG 36% – 2
LP 23% – 1
SF 8% – 1
GP 6%

Somewhat more surprising this one…. LP are still in the hunt, but a poor vote split (about 2:1) would see her fall 0.7% behind SF’s new recruit O’Leary, who would be elected on LP surplus and GP transfers. It is quite a soft SF gain however, and even if they fell back to 9% nationally, they’d probably lose this to LP. Still, they’ll take some heart from the idea that they’d even have a chance, and this could see O’Leary stay south of the river.
—————-

Cork SW

L/MB
FF 26%
FG 38%
LP 29%

1/1/1.

RedC
FF 28%
FG 39%
LP 21%
SF 7%
GP 5%

Again 1/1/1, this time LP depending on at least a third of SF/GP transfers to get a quota.
—————-

Donegal NE

L/MB
FF 35% – 1
FG 27% – 1
LP 18% – 1 (yes, I know…)
SF 12%

Quite a surprise, even if LP are 35% and SF 4% nationally. Or is it? LP went from nowhere here in 1989 to 11.34% in 1992, when they were 19.5% nationally. An equivilent vote on 35% would be 20% this time, and presumably Harte has brought some amount of a personal vote.

RedC
FF 35% – 1
FG 26% – 1
SF 21% – 1
LP 11%

Less surprising, SF taking a FF seat, and Harte doing slightly less well than Maloney did for LP in 1992. A run as Indo by McDaid could of course throw it all into confusion, of course….
————–

Donegal SW

L/MB
FF 35% – 1
FG 26% – 1
LP 21% – 1
SF 17%

As above for LP in Donegal. What odds Frank McBrearty as Minister for Justice? 😉 This shouldn’t surprise anyone who read this

RedC
FF 34% – 1
FG 25% – 1
SF 26% -1
LP 12%

Again, the national trends matter, as they are a composite of what is happening locally. LP need to be high 20s (and SF 6% or less) to be in with a shout here.

More at….

… and here…..

and final part here

Polar opposites

Well, 48 hours is a long time in polling. Red C has hit the newstands again, and this time, they show enough difference to Thursday’s Lansdowne/TV3 poll to establish that one of them is well out of kilter. I’ll being doing a cross-poll analysis tomorrow as promised elsewhere, so I’ll reserve analysis on that matter until then.

Tonight’s results are;

FF 24%
FG 31%
LP 23%
SF 10%
GP 3%
OTH 9%

I’ve just run the results through the spreadsheet, and they threw up the following outcome in seats;

FG 59
LP 44
FF 42
SF 12 (!)
GP 1
OTH 8

Very very different, and LP and SF aren’t just getting different ratings to Thursday’s poll, well outside normal variances, but going in opposite directions. LP are of course 12% down on Lansdowne (although still 2.3 times their 2007 vote), whereas SF go from oblivion to record heights in the blink of an eye.

Where does that leave the parties? Well, FF and FG in fairness are pretty much the same as Thursday, so unsurprised about their own performances. Kenny however will be delighted that LP appear to be back in their rightful place, fighting with FF over who is third. FF will also take some comfort at being neck and neck for the silver medal.

LP will be very disappointed, particularly after Thursday, despite this being a rating that would see them outperform every LP election result in the history of the State.

More tomorrow…..

TV3 Poll – 23/09/10

As you’re all aware, TV3 have published their Millward Brown/Lansdowne poll this evening, and the figures are great for Labour, so-so for FF, worrying for FG, and disastrous for SF and the GP.

The state of the parties (excluding 17% DKs) is as follows;
FF 22%
FG 30%
LP 35%
SF 4%
GP 2%
OTH 8%

I’ve put these figures into the spreadsheet, run each constituency, and come up with the following seat totals;
LP 67 (yes, 67)
FG 54
FF 39
SF 1
GP 0
OTH 5

The multiplicity of polls which may or may not be coming our way this week is confusing enough, but on these figures, Enda Kenny is no safer a man than Cowen, and may even be in greater trouble. The poor showing for both of their parties will cause much soul searching in their respective memberships, but Cowen will know, at least, that the Greens won’t be pulling the plug any time soon.

If these figures were repeated on polling day, it would be extremely difficult for FG to match LP on seats, and LP have to start thinking about candidate strategy pretty soon. Areas like Dublin South West and Dublin Central (in my simulation) saw LP lose out on a 3rd seat as a result of poor vote splitting (which would be inevitable if a candidate was added at the last minute).

FG should be unhappy with this poll. Having seen off Bruton (who is damaged goods now) Kenny now has to convince he people he’s up to the job of Taoiseach in challenging times, and this poll suggests that he’s not sealing the deal at the moment. Not alone are FG up about a tenth since the 2007 GE (compared to LP who are on 3.5 times their 2007 score), but Kenny barely rates over half Gilmore’s score on preferred Taoiseach (19% compared to 36%), and is even behind Mr None of the Above, who is the preferred choice of 20%. Cowen rates 11%, which must make depressing reading for him.

FF are pretty much where they’ve been in polls generally. A large percentage of the population believe he lost credibility over garglegate (71%), but that’s not as much as the non-FF vote. More interestingly, 59% of FF voters believe the same, and that may be what ultimately seals his fate. A majority of voters want Cowen to lose the FF leadership, (52/40), with Lenihen leading the only credible challenger Martin (46/15). 27% have no opinion, with Hanafin and Ahern at 4% and 2% respectively.

The GP would be looking at wipeout with these figures. To quote Frank Cluskey in the ’80s after a particularly bad poll for Labour, they are now in the margin of error. LP recovered on that occasion, to the extent of holding 12 seats the following GE on 6.4% of the vote, but it’s looking much grimmer for the GP now. LP had WP transfers to save them, and their vote was ‘lumpier’ than that of the Greens. Most Greens won’t be polling nearly enough to benefit from transfers from anyone.

SF similarly would see their vote well down on ’07, and would be out of the running in all but 5 constituencies, and would be unlikely to win more than 1 seat (in Cavan-Monaghan). With a 3% m.o.e., they will hope that this is just an unfortunate quirk that will be shown up by polls later this week (or night?)

A result like this would cause very testy negotiations for government, and it couldn’t be ruled out that FG would go into coalition with FF – Kenny as Taoiseach and new FF leader Brian Lenihen continuing as Finance Minister (all in The National Interest, of course…)

Right, that’s my initial reaction. I’ll be back with another post if MRBI is released this evening, and plan to do RedC on Saturday evening, and do a more in depth, cross-poll analysis on Sunday.

That’s if the missus doesn’t smash up my laptop before then! 🙂

Polls apart

Am just in from work and the TV3 poll is out (link posted by Paddy Matthews on the previous thread)

The headline figures are LP 35% (!), FG 30%, FF 22%, SF 4%, GP 2% and OTH 8%. As Paddy notes, the 101% total is probably a rounding, rather than a Quantum, issue!

I’ve a couple of family-related things to do, but hopefully will get a proper analysis done by 8-8:30 or so.

You wait ages for a decent poll…..

…. and then two come along together. MRBI poll being released probably Thurs evening for publication on Friday morning in the Irish Times, and RedC in SBP being published Sunday (probably released on Saturday evening).

It’ll be the first MRBI using the new methodology, and given the closeness of the the times they are being taken, it will be very interesting to see how close the two sets of results are.

Also of interest will be, given they are reputable companies, whether they ask voting intention in the event that Lenihen (or Martin) were leader of FF. Would also like to see what percentage would expect an immediate GE in the event of Cowen being replaced.

FWIW, I think this’ll be FF down, but not as much as people are expecting. Expect a flurry of political activity in the next few days as politicians try to influence the outcomes.

Party drink-in result

Readers will be aware of my views on Quantum ‘Research’ polls, and their inability to convince, even to the extent of being well above or below 100%.

This time, they’ve eliminated the “Don’t knows” of the figures they’ve “come to”, and carefully made sure that they come to 100%, so it’s pleasing to see that they are increasing their levels of professionalism. The polls are still clearly coming out with ‘findings’ that the paper’s owner wishes them to, though. A complete co-incidence, no doubt…..

Unsurprisingly, given they’ve been looking to replace Cowen for some time, there’s a poll on who should succeed him. There’s nothing on-line giving figures for whether he should go, which is just as well, as an MRBI poll is expected on Friday, and it will probably ask the same question. A figure showing low levels of support for a putsch would help Cowen, but if it was high, and followed by a more modest figure on Friday, it would look like Cowen was recovering.

So, who do they want as leader? 70% Lenihen, and 30% Martin.

Pardon me? 0% Coughlan, 0% Hanafin, 0% Ahern? I wouldn’t expect any of them to be in the top two, but not registering at all – 0% between the three of them? That’s clearly untrue. The question (if it was asked) could only have asked people to choose between Lenihen (a man who apparently is terminally ill), although the article linked reports that he is making himself available as leader) and Martin (who the Indo were pushing as a potential replacement earlier in the week). But what reputable company would limit this to two men when others have been mooted?

Laughably, it also shows a majority (55/45) in favour of the new man not having to call an election. Aside from the political damage caused by changing Taoiseach twice without recourse to a GE, the question is asked in a vacuum, in that some of those demanding an immediate election would presumably be influenced by the identity of the successful candidate. And a question like that which doesn’t have a “don’t know” option is again a nonsense – up to a third of voters cold be expected to “DK” on a question with as much uncertainties as that (i.e. IF Cowen stepped down, and WHOEVER the new leader was). This poll has a large margin of error anyway (about 5%, again assuming it actually took place, and was sampled perfectly), but given there are presumably DKs that the Sindo are hiding (sorry, excluding) the suggestion that the majority of the population would oppose an election isn’t even borne out by these, rather suspect figures.

FF will of course be heartened to discover Dr O’Reilly still wants a FF-nua, rather than FG, as the poll ‘finds’ that the 65% of the people feel that Simple’s tweet was wrong, despite “almost three quarters” (or, more accurately, over two-thirds) at 70% believe he was hung over. 30% don’t, although again, we’ve no idea how many have no opinion or are unsure.

Or a bright note, MRBI as I said are due a poll on Friday, or so I’ve heard, and this will be the first using their new methodology, and the first real poll since the FF Drink-in. So that’ll be something worth poring over.

Sex and Sin

The Irish Times released the results of a poll over the last two days regarding sexual and religious matters (appropriately over two instalments, a bit like a strip tease), and they make diverting, if less than earth-shattering reading. The survey was conducted by “Behaviour & Attitudes”, a company I confess to knowing very little of. Their Managing Director Ian McShane previously held the same position with MRBI, and they are a member of AIMRO and ESOMAR, with a background (from what I can tell) of conducting surveys more related to lifestyle and attitudes than what might normally be counted as ‘political’.

The first tranche of results showed that the public acceptance of same sex relationships continues to increase (or should we say opposition dies out). The poll, which was of a sample that was 96% heterosexual, showed 67% of those think gay couples should be allowed to marry, with only 25% opposed (and 8% DKs). A Lansdowne poll in October 2006 showed 51% of the population supporting gay marriage, with a further 33% supporting instead civil partnership legislation. That poll included people aged 15+, and the 15-17yo cadre were heavily in favour, so it would probably mean that slightly less than 50% of adults supported same-sex marriage just 4 years ago, so 67% demonstrates substantial momentum. The relatively low opposition also suggests that no major party will win the percentages game in opposing moves towards full equality in this area.

Of greater controversy, but still showing a positive trend (well, IMO), attitudes to adoption by same-sex couples seem to be softening. 46% believe it should be allowed, and 38% are against. It’s still quite close, and I can’t see a stampede from the parties to introduce change here, but there’s strong grounds for at least one of them to stop playing safe on this issue. Increasingly, people recognise that this is a matter of legal rights for children already being brought up by gay couples – adoption results, in the main, in additional duties for gay parents, not “rights”.

Perhaps surprisingly similar are the figures in favour of the rights of transexuals to change their birth certs (48/39), but most of the rest of day one contained pretty predictable results. Apparently, most ppl don’t think sex outside marriage is immoral (15/79), have nothing against gay people (5/91), will have more stable marriages if they shack up beforehand (57/25), but admire those who stay celibate before marriage (48/35), and think the teens should stay out of one another’s pants until they are 18 (61/28).

Of particular interest to parents is the matter of the differential approach to underage activity between them under the Irish law. When asked “In banning underage sex, the law now provides that boys can be prosecuted for having sex with girls under 17, even if consensually. Girls cannot however be prosecuted for having sex with underage boys. Do you believe the law is correct or incorrect?” 7% said “Yes” (presumably this was meant to mean correct) and 87% said no. Of course, there was no breakdown of those who’d change this by being less severe with the boys, and those who’d lock up the girls, but on balance it would appear that a large majority appear to hold more sensible views on this matter than is assumed in political circles.

Today’s instalment focused on morality and religion. The poll consisted of a sample that was 89% Catholic, with all other denominations being in the margin of error (are there really only 2.5% of the population who are atheists?!). They were either moderately or strongly religious, with 47% attending religious services at least monthly (35% weekly or daily). These Catholics seem to be quite out of step with their church’s theology, however, with heavy majorities in favour of married priests (87/10), and women priests (78/14).

Disappointing, there is no figure for those in favour of lesbian priests marrying, but taking both sets of polls, it would appear that there would have to be a majority of the population who are Catholics who are moderately or strongly religious, who believe that the marriage bar for priests should be lifted, and who believe that marriage should be open to same sex couples! If I was a tabloid editor, this would have been worked into a fantastic headline!

A question which perhaps gauges the nature of the liberal/religiosity of the sample is the support for banning the wearing of the burqa in “public places”. While the question helpfully describes what the burqa is, I personally doubt that more than 20% of the population had seen one that week, and so the 49/36 split may reflect unease with Islam, more than support for womens rights. This would appear to be supported by the age split – age categories of 35-44 and under all oppose a ban (18-24s most strongly at 38/51), whereas all older categories support a ban with the highest support being among 55-64s at 66/22 (12% DK’s), even higher than 65+s who were 56/21 (23% DK’s). This may be a result of the oldest correspondents thinking that catholic women should cover up more, but the larger DK figure suggests that a significantly higher percentage didn’t understand the question.

Rather more fun was the question asking what people considered serious sins. Given a list of 11 sins, they were asked to rate in terms of seriousness, and the poll revealed what percentage places them in the top three. Perjury (56%) and fraud (55%) topped the poll, but interestingly, drink driving (48%) and “significant” tax evasion (40%) make the top four, which I’ll wager wouldn’t have happened 20 years ago. Four of the bottom five are the only sexually related sins, including sexual infidelity (18%), unprotected casual sex (12%), watching porn (11%) and pre-marital sex (4%), with only illegally downloading music/films (4%) scoring a less derisory score. Clearly the internet generation were well represented in this survey, but I can imagine some people outraged by this

So, at the end of the day, we’re a pack of quite religious Catholics who also support the wife swapping sodomites (as long as they’re not Muslims).

Good to know, eh?

Fine Gael poll in Donegal SW

As mentioned by SFInbhear in politics.ie, The Donegal Democrat this week have an article which makes mention of an internal poll done for Fine Gael in advance of the Donegal South-West bye-election (whenever that may be held). I had a look at the paper today to see if there were more details than s/he posted, but there wasn’t.

The poll, if accurate (and that *is* a big if), is quite amazing, and particularly bad news for FG’s ambitions. Voters were asked who, among the likely FF, FG, LP and SF candidates they were likely to support, and it had FF neck and neck with SF, LP’s Frank McBrearty in 3^rd place, and FG in a disappointing (for them) fourth. Given the options didn’t include two independents who pull from the FG candidate Barry O’Neill’s area, he probably would be lower still in a real poll.

Without full figures, its hard to work out the result from this, but it suggests that McBrearty has gone from very long shot to genuine contender. If he out-polls FG, he can expect extremely high transfers from them, which may be likely to see him haul in SF’s Pearse Doherty, most of whose transfers might be expected to stay in the anti-Government pile. While a number of Donegal SF posters on p.ie have refered to him as a bit of a curmudgeon, his standing up to Garda corruption does appear to generate some admiration – sufficient, one presumes, to see him stay ahead of FF in their preferences.

To be still at the races, SF would need to be very close to 33% in first preferences to stay ahead of Labour (or FF would have to be a decent margin ahead of them, pushing the combined LP/FG vote down). If they’re not, the combined LP/FG vote would be expected to catch them. If, for example, FF are on 30%, SF on 28%, LP on 22% and FG at 20%, it would be game on. FG transfers, if they went one fifth each to FF and SF, and three fifths to LP, would see a second count of FF 34%, with both SF and LP on 32%.

A few ifs and buts there, but nothing compared to what faced McBrearty last Summer.

For FG it’s hard to see why they leaked the poll, although an un-named FG source seems to suggest to the Democrat that they may re-visit O’Neill’s candidacy, with a high profile candidate. But that’s unlikely to be a serious proposal. Whoever wins will be back on the trail a month or so later in a General Election (probably), and there’s only 1 FG seat (23% last time out, and lower now, going by this), which would most likely stay in Dinny McGinley’s mits. Even George Lee would baulk at that.

For FF, similarly, it’s not a great prospect. While the poll reportedly has them in first place, it suggests that they are ‘neck and neck’ with the Shinners in first preferences. Even SF might be expected to draw more transfers than a Govt candidate in a bye-election, but even this prospect is eclipsed by the prospect of a transfer friendly LP challenge with enough first preferences to make that count.

For SF, it would seem that they have a greater fight on their hands than I suspected. Indeed, if this trends, they may start planning ahead to the GE, when a vote in and around 25% will get them elected, without having to beg for transfers from voters who are antagonistic towards them.

And for McBrearty? Well, again, if it’s true, it’s remarkable. He came (in electoral terms) from nowhere to take a seat for LP in the locals, but this would be an achievement of altogether greater proportions. There is no shortage of political animals in Donegal, and the implications of this poll won’t be lost on them. Whatever McBrearty is, he’ll no longer be seen as a “wasted vote”, and that will be very positive for him, whether he pulls it off or not.

It also suggests that the national polling for LP isn’t just detecting a swing to them in Dublin. If this is the case here, one has to wonder how they are doing in places like Donegal North East, Roscommon, and Sligo.

Interesting times. Needless to say, if anyone out there has the full results, please let us know.

Quantum Engineering

So, the first poll to come out since I set up the blog, and as luck would have it, it’s a Sindo/Quantum ‘Research’ poll on Anglo. Oh dear….

Those who’ve noticed my views on Quantum in the past will know how much time I give their findings. Frankly, they produce figures that just aren’t credible. While SF have averaged 8%+ in the reputable RedC/MRBI surveys, they get 3% when Quantum come-a-asking. Even with the sample size of 500 they usually use, this is well outside the margin of error, which suggests one of three things; (1) There is a problem with their sampling methodology, (2) a flaw has suddenly arisen in the methodologies of both the major polling companies, who use samples of 1,000+ and have a proven track record, or (3) the results are made to order.

Reason #3 has been cited on more than one occasion, largely because the more ridiculous figures have co-incided with the known preferences of “Dr” O’Reilly. The Indo’s antipathy to SF is rarely shrouded in subtlety. There have been some such polls that appear to have been a (rather sad) attempt to persuade renegade FF and FG TDs to form a new party, or to get FF to replace Cowen with Lenihen as leader. Of course, asking people if they would support a new party, without setting out its policies, is going to massively over-state the potential of any such party, drawing support from those to the left and the right of any such new formation.

That previous Quantum poll tried to provide further support to this notion, when it stated “Quantum Research said: Interestingly, there is a five-point increase in the figure for ‘don’t knows’, going up from 22 per cent last year to 27 per cent this time round. This ties in with a lot of people’s anger with the current political system as a whole, and their refusal to countenance voting for anyone. Many of these people would also like to see the establishment of a new party.””. If there was a figure for the number of such people supporting such an development, they should have used it, but they didn’t, as they hadn’t asked that question. Instead, they make an un-supported assertion of very dubious value. It’s hard not to see the hand of their paymaster in this, and so I tend to treat their polls with suspicion.

So, today’s poll. Apparently, 73% of respondents believe that Anglo will bankrupt the country, and 72% believe it will bring down the Government (presumably pretty much the same people). This is quite similar to the figure, in their previous poll of how many voters think that State should end its commitment to the Bank (70%). Interestingly, the previous poll’s figures appear to have excluded “Don’t Knows”, whereas today’s figures include a (laughably low) figure for don’t knows.

On the “bankruptcy” question, 73% of the population said it would, 23% said no, and only 4% appear not to be sure on the matter. Really? Only 4%? One person in 25? All the rest have an opinion on whether it might bankrupt the State? Well I studied Economics at third level, and I’m, not sure. It’ll cost us a lot (everyone accepts that) but will it put the State in a position where it can’t meet it’s financial obligations? My wife who is educated to 4^th level in Politics doesn’t know either (I asked). But 96% of all voters do?  The veracity of this is stretched by the other question, on whether Anglo would bring down the Govt.  72% said yes, and 28% said no!  So, 0% “Don’t knows”?  That’s obviously impossible, at least 1% of the population don’t know what the Government is.  Perhaps they excluded don’t knows?  Perhaps, but why would they do that for this question, and not the other?

I don’t buy this.   25% don’t know which party they’d support in a General Election. I’ll bet 10% don’t know if they’d like to win the Lotto or not. There’s always a significant number of people who say “Don’t Know” in any survey, at least if it’s on a matter there is some dispute over. This very low figure suggests that, either (a) the figure was derived without using an actual survey at all, or (b) “Don’t knows” were pressed really hard to make a decision, perhaps by the questioner ‘dumbing down’ the question to something like “will it cost us a lot of money”, thereby making the question irrelevant (as we all know that it will). The only other possibility is that some questioners excluded don’t knows from their figures, but some of them didn’t.

Of course, Quantum have tied themselves up in knots before.  A previous Quantum poll in January 2009 famously showed 55% in favour of Lisbon, 37% against, and 15% undecided, a grand total of 107%!

So, The Sindo have paid Quantum for a poll, and Quantum have delivered one. 73% of the people think that Anglo will bankrupt us. Apparently. Or will crucify us. Or something.

Next, please!

EDIT : The next instalment in the Quantum story is at https://irishpollingreport.wordpress.com/2010/09/19/party-drink-in-results/