Fine Gael poll in Donegal SW

As mentioned by SFInbhear in politics.ie, The Donegal Democrat this week have an article which makes mention of an internal poll done for Fine Gael in advance of the Donegal South-West bye-election (whenever that may be held). I had a look at the paper today to see if there were more details than s/he posted, but there wasn’t.

The poll, if accurate (and that *is* a big if), is quite amazing, and particularly bad news for FG’s ambitions. Voters were asked who, among the likely FF, FG, LP and SF candidates they were likely to support, and it had FF neck and neck with SF, LP’s Frank McBrearty in 3^rd place, and FG in a disappointing (for them) fourth. Given the options didn’t include two independents who pull from the FG candidate Barry O’Neill’s area, he probably would be lower still in a real poll.

Without full figures, its hard to work out the result from this, but it suggests that McBrearty has gone from very long shot to genuine contender. If he out-polls FG, he can expect extremely high transfers from them, which may be likely to see him haul in SF’s Pearse Doherty, most of whose transfers might be expected to stay in the anti-Government pile. While a number of Donegal SF posters on p.ie have refered to him as a bit of a curmudgeon, his standing up to Garda corruption does appear to generate some admiration – sufficient, one presumes, to see him stay ahead of FF in their preferences.

To be still at the races, SF would need to be very close to 33% in first preferences to stay ahead of Labour (or FF would have to be a decent margin ahead of them, pushing the combined LP/FG vote down). If they’re not, the combined LP/FG vote would be expected to catch them. If, for example, FF are on 30%, SF on 28%, LP on 22% and FG at 20%, it would be game on. FG transfers, if they went one fifth each to FF and SF, and three fifths to LP, would see a second count of FF 34%, with both SF and LP on 32%.

A few ifs and buts there, but nothing compared to what faced McBrearty last Summer.

For FG it’s hard to see why they leaked the poll, although an un-named FG source seems to suggest to the Democrat that they may re-visit O’Neill’s candidacy, with a high profile candidate. But that’s unlikely to be a serious proposal. Whoever wins will be back on the trail a month or so later in a General Election (probably), and there’s only 1 FG seat (23% last time out, and lower now, going by this), which would most likely stay in Dinny McGinley’s mits. Even George Lee would baulk at that.

For FF, similarly, it’s not a great prospect. While the poll reportedly has them in first place, it suggests that they are ‘neck and neck’ with the Shinners in first preferences. Even SF might be expected to draw more transfers than a Govt candidate in a bye-election, but even this prospect is eclipsed by the prospect of a transfer friendly LP challenge with enough first preferences to make that count.

For SF, it would seem that they have a greater fight on their hands than I suspected. Indeed, if this trends, they may start planning ahead to the GE, when a vote in and around 25% will get them elected, without having to beg for transfers from voters who are antagonistic towards them.

And for McBrearty? Well, again, if it’s true, it’s remarkable. He came (in electoral terms) from nowhere to take a seat for LP in the locals, but this would be an achievement of altogether greater proportions. There is no shortage of political animals in Donegal, and the implications of this poll won’t be lost on them. Whatever McBrearty is, he’ll no longer be seen as a “wasted vote”, and that will be very positive for him, whether he pulls it off or not.

It also suggests that the national polling for LP isn’t just detecting a swing to them in Dublin. If this is the case here, one has to wonder how they are doing in places like Donegal North East, Roscommon, and Sligo.

Interesting times. Needless to say, if anyone out there has the full results, please let us know.