Irish Polling Report

A place to discuss Irish opinion polls

Party drink-in result

with 3 comments

Readers will be aware of my views on Quantum ‘Research’ polls, and their inability to convince, even to the extent of being well above or below 100%.

This time, they’ve eliminated the “Don’t knows” of the figures they’ve “come to”, and carefully made sure that they come to 100%, so it’s pleasing to see that they are increasing their levels of professionalism. The polls are still clearly coming out with ‘findings’ that the paper’s owner wishes them to, though. A complete co-incidence, no doubt…..

Unsurprisingly, given they’ve been looking to replace Cowen for some time, there’s a poll on who should succeed him. There’s nothing on-line giving figures for whether he should go, which is just as well, as an MRBI poll is expected on Friday, and it will probably ask the same question. A figure showing low levels of support for a putsch would help Cowen, but if it was high, and followed by a more modest figure on Friday, it would look like Cowen was recovering.

So, who do they want as leader? 70% Lenihen, and 30% Martin.

Pardon me? 0% Coughlan, 0% Hanafin, 0% Ahern? I wouldn’t expect any of them to be in the top two, but not registering at all – 0% between the three of them? That’s clearly untrue. The question (if it was asked) could only have asked people to choose between Lenihen (a man who apparently is terminally ill), although the article linked reports that he is making himself available as leader) and Martin (who the Indo were pushing as a potential replacement earlier in the week). But what reputable company would limit this to two men when others have been mooted?

Laughably, it also shows a majority (55/45) in favour of the new man not having to call an election. Aside from the political damage caused by changing Taoiseach twice without recourse to a GE, the question is asked in a vacuum, in that some of those demanding an immediate election would presumably be influenced by the identity of the successful candidate. And a question like that which doesn’t have a “don’t know” option is again a nonsense – up to a third of voters cold be expected to “DK” on a question with as much uncertainties as that (i.e. IF Cowen stepped down, and WHOEVER the new leader was). This poll has a large margin of error anyway (about 5%, again assuming it actually took place, and was sampled perfectly), but given there are presumably DKs that the Sindo are hiding (sorry, excluding) the suggestion that the majority of the population would oppose an election isn’t even borne out by these, rather suspect figures.

FF will of course be heartened to discover Dr O’Reilly still wants a FF-nua, rather than FG, as the poll ‘finds’ that the 65% of the people feel that Simple’s tweet was wrong, despite “almost three quarters” (or, more accurately, over two-thirds) at 70% believe he was hung over. 30% don’t, although again, we’ve no idea how many have no opinion or are unsure.

Or a bright note, MRBI as I said are due a poll on Friday, or so I’ve heard, and this will be the first using their new methodology, and the first real poll since the FF Drink-in. So that’ll be something worth poring over.

Written by Dotski

September 19, 2010 at 12:41 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

3 Responses

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  1. […] an air of something made up in the office, somewhat like football transfer gossip, and when their last poll suggested support for an alternative FF leader ran at 70% Lenihen and 30% Martin (and apparently […]

  2. […] […]

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