Irish Polling Report

A place to discuss Irish opinion polls

Polar opposites

with 5 comments

Well, 48 hours is a long time in polling. Red C has hit the newstands again, and this time, they show enough difference to Thursday’s Lansdowne/TV3 poll to establish that one of them is well out of kilter. I’ll being doing a cross-poll analysis tomorrow as promised elsewhere, so I’ll reserve analysis on that matter until then.

Tonight’s results are;

FF 24%
FG 31%
LP 23%
SF 10%
GP 3%
OTH 9%

I’ve just run the results through the spreadsheet, and they threw up the following outcome in seats;

FG 59
LP 44
FF 42
SF 12 (!)
GP 1
OTH 8

Very very different, and LP and SF aren’t just getting different ratings to Thursday’s poll, well outside normal variances, but going in opposite directions. LP are of course 12% down on Lansdowne (although still 2.3 times their 2007 vote), whereas SF go from oblivion to record heights in the blink of an eye.

Where does that leave the parties? Well, FF and FG in fairness are pretty much the same as Thursday, so unsurprised about their own performances. Kenny however will be delighted that LP appear to be back in their rightful place, fighting with FF over who is third. FF will also take some comfort at being neck and neck for the silver medal.

LP will be very disappointed, particularly after Thursday, despite this being a rating that would see them outperform every LP election result in the history of the State.

More tomorrow…..

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Written by Dotski

September 25, 2010 at 6:20 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

5 Responses

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  1. i dont know about that TV3 poll anyhow look forward to your recview.

    SF at record height you say but this is there third 10% in 6 months . guess you mean the seats. Are your transfer patterns predicated on the locals, the GE , the euros or a type of mix between them.

    Poll em

    September 25, 2010 at 6:44 pm

    • yes, SF up and down a lot, will probably look at that in a separate post soon. I think in particular there may be a voter out there who is particularly fluid between SF and LP.

      In terms of transfers, they are a mix of a number of factors, but yes, the LEs are included, as are more historical patterns, but I also think that they will be more anti-FF than before. I have SF votes closer to the left in Dublin, and but less remote from FF in the West/Border counties.

      Dotski

      September 25, 2010 at 6:56 pm

  2. cheers dotski. sounds like a good model. I’d love to see the spreadsheet but know thats probably a trade secret 🙂
    go raibh maith agat

    Poll em

    September 26, 2010 at 11:10 am

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