Another 48 hours

Part II of this post

Sorry this took a while, part 2 of 4. I’ll try to get the rest up tomorrow.

Dublin C

L/MB
FF 15%
FG 13% – 1
LP 47% – 2
OTHs 18%-1
SF 5%

A bit of a hard one to call, as there may be a number of strong indos running, and there’s no guarantee that O’Sullivan will be one of them. Perry will have a good chance if she doesn’t (or possibly even if she does) and Christy may jump into the melee and see what happens. Lp may even run a 3rd candidate. But when I run the Lansdowne figures, it’s LP 2 comfortably enough (with LP3 losing out due to poor splitting of the vote), Donaghue getting through (almost by default, given the collapse in SF) and O’Sullivan beating Fitzpatrick on the last count.

RedC
FF 17% -1
FG 14%
LP 32%-2
SF 12%
OTH 23%-1

The significant difference would be FG gaining little in LP surplus loses to FF, who are that bit closer to the line from the start. A 3rd candidate for LP actually makes them a little safer, by reducing Joe’s share of the total LP fpv, and therefore his surplus, from which there’ll be be leakage due to his personal vote. That’d probably be the end of Paschal’s career here – 3 times tipped to win, and a 3-time loser.
Dublin MW

L/MB
FF 13%
FG 21% -1
LP 49%- 3
SF 5%
GP 5%
PBP 3%

LP get 3 seats, gaining one each from FF and the GP, and FG gain one from Mary Harney. Seems unlikely? Well, they are 43% in Dublin in this poll, and 49% is what the spreadsheet is throwing up here. FG for all their bluster aren’t going to go from 0 to 2, they’ll get the one gain and barring a bigger swing, that’ll be that. The GP seat being up for grabs is probably beyond debate (there are rumours that Gogarty may not run) which plays largely into LP’s hands, and that combined with the drop in SF in this poll means that at 49%, LP would be well placed to have 3 candidates ahead of everyone except FG (when the second candidate is eliminated), including FF. Of course a stronger performance by FF would see them take the seat, or a poorer LP one, but if Tuffy goes with one running mate in each ward (Dowd & Jones perhaps) and particularly pushes LP voters in Lucan to give Jones No.1s, they would be very well placed on these figures, with nearly 4 times the FF vote, and transfers from SF to come (transfers from GP aren’t likely to unduly favour FF, I would have thought). It’d be close, certainly, but in the absence of a FF recovery, or a bigger swing to FG, it’d be what looks likeliest.

RedC
FF 15% -1
FG 23%-1
LP 33%-2
SF 12%
GP 7%

LP wouldn’t get a 3rd seat with 3rd candidate, no matter how well managed and FF would then hang on, making it a constituency in Dublin where FF don’t lose a seat. The second LP seat would still appear to be safe enough, even with 3 candidates if they ran them, however it split. SF would have an outside chance of beating Curran, but would probably fall just short.

Dub N

L/MB
FF 18%-1
FG 18%-1
LP 40%-2
GP 8%

Both Govt parties lose a seat to LP – probably not a shock, in the current circumstances.

RedC
FF 21%-1
FG 20%-1
LP 25%-1
GP 11%-1
SP 11%

Assuming LP don’t split the vote well here, LP2 behind SP/GP, and helping Sargant more (based on his personal vote). Last seat is however between GP, SP and LP2. Main FF interest is who takes the remaining seat.

Dub NC

L/MB
FF 19%-1
FG 29%-1
LP 37%-1
FmcG 13%

Assuming 1 LP candidate here, a second would possibly outpoll McGrath, depending on the split, but still there’d be too much ground to make up for LP2 on FF. Haughey would sweat a little, nevertheless.

RedC
FF 21%-1
FG 30%-1
LP 23%-1
FMG 16%

LP still get the seat, but should only run a running mate if they will bring in votes that McGrath would otherwise take. I’d like to see a few more polls with LP over 25% before I’d recommend it.

Dub NE

L/MB
FF 15%
FG 24%-1
LP 52%-2
SF 8%

Two handy seats for LP on these figures, as there was when LP went from 0 to 2 in ’92 (a 4-seater then). FF and SF not even close on these figures.

RedC
FF 17%
FG 26%-1
LP 36%-1
SF 16%-1

The very high polling for SF in the RedC figures puts them back into contention. LP would need to split their vote unreasonably well to win a second. No danger to the 1st seat in 2 candidates, though.

Dublin NW

L/MB
FF 20%-1
FG 11%
LP 58% (yes, I know)-2
SF 8%

The general assumption is that LP can’t win 3 out of 3 anywhere. If the polls showing them over 30% come to fruition, this will be tested. In this poll, LP were up and SF down, and FF only barely beat LP3 as a result of poor split in LP vote and a significant SF non-transferable vote. With the same figures and a well run LP campaign, they’d take the 3 seats. But I reckon they’ll not go for it.

RedC
FF 23%-1
FG 12%
LP 40%-2
SF 19%

Even if they run 3 candidates, whatever the split LP would be sure of 2 seats here, thanks to FG transfers. No chance of the 3rd on those figures, but no harm in trying, given the possibility of polling higher.

Dublin S

L/MB
FF 18%-1
FG 32%-2
LP 44%-2
GP 5%

Well, the swings were always of a higher quality in Dublin South! Two safe as houses seats for LP, one from each coalition partner, and safe to run a third if they wished.

RedC
FF 21%-1
FG 34%-2
LP 30%-2
GP 7%
SF 5%

Same result, but LP in on SF transfers (presumably against FG3). Ryan well behind. A 3rd Lp candidate is unlikely to cause difficulties, and more likely to knock Ryan out even earlier by taking some of his vote, arguably making 2nd seat even safer.

Not that they’ll believe me….

Dublin SC

L/MB
FF 10%-1
FG 16%-1
LP 56%-3
PBP 9%
SF 5%

LP would not only be safe for 3 seats on these figures, but would be competitive for a 4th seat if they ran a Byrne-HUpton-Conaghan-Moynihan ticket. They’d ultimately fall just short, but it would be close enough, and I’d not like to guess who’d win the 3rd seat. FF would probably win the last seat without reaching the quota.

RedC
FF 12%
FG 17%-1
LP 40%-3
SF 12%-1
PBP 11%
Ding-dong battle here. By my reckoning, SF would hold onto this seat from PBP transfers, which would also be helping LP3 across the line ahead of FF1. But it would be very close, and it’s hard to call – SF would be the most vulnerable to a stronger FF challenge, and PBP would be very close also. In the spreadsheet I have them running both Collins (who was Indo last time) and Smith, and there’s some leakage in the transfers. If they ran a single candidate who managed to take all of the votes that would have gone to both of them last time, they’d probably stay ahead of SF and take that last seat.

Dub SE

L/MB
FF 16%-1
FG 22%-1
LP 49%-2
GP 6%

I’ve given the GP a ‘leaders bonus’, but it’s done nothing for them here. On the basis of this poll, the tide is out big time, and there’s little that would appear could save Gormley. LP on the other hand, with a very balanced ticket, appear well placed to deliver on the promise from the LEs and take a second seat, but a comfortable margin. FF’s Chris Andrews would appear well placed, particularly if he doesn’t have a running mate imposed on him.

RedC
FF 18%-1
FG 24%-1
LP 35%-2
GP 10%
SF 6%

Not quite as comfortable, but no change from Lansdowne. At least Gormley gets to contest the last seat with Humphries, but the outcome is the same.

Dub SW

L/MB
FF 14%-1
FG 22%-1
LP 51%-2
SF 9%

This is a constituency where LP could pull in a 3rd candidate, but show no interest in it, from what I can see. If they are 43% in Dublin, they are over 50% here, even losing Rabbitte’s “leaders bonus”, and other left-wing transfers should push them to the 58-9% required on the last count to get a 3rd seat, but Rabbitte is unlikely to run more than one running mate no matter what the situation, I’m given to understand. The beneficiary would, most likely, be FF who’d hold one of their 2 TDs, although they would face a stiff challenge from SF, who would benefit from SP transfers and a fair bit of Labour’s surplus.

RedC
FF 16.7%
FG 23%-1
LP 33.2%-2
SF 17.2%-1

As you can see, much closer here. FF despite having a higher first pref, would lose out to SF who perform much better under RedC, taking the 3rd seat, and LP2 takes the 4th seat on SP transfers. Very very close though, and if you argued FF would take this at the expense of LP, I’d not get into an argument with you – it’d just be too close to call.

Dublin W

L/MB
FF 18%-1
FG 15%
LP 52%-2
SP 13%-1

I’ve made an adjustment to the base here to account for what I believe will be a bigger personal vote for Lenihen here, for reasons I think most of you will understand. LP appear unlikely to run 3 candidates (although there’s merit in the idea, Nulty running to take votes from Higgins, and Kelleher to take votes in the new Swords part of the constituency). Their surplus is likely to help Higgins a bit more than Leo, although I’d not write him off, even on these figures.

RedC
FF 21%-1
FG 17%-1
LP 38%-2
SP 17%

Here, the lower LP vote means no LP surplus to help Joe haul in Leo. It’s also a case where LP running that 3rd candidate could lose them the 2nd seat.

Dun Laoghaire

L/MB
FF 18%-1
FG 24%-1
LP 47%-2
PBP 8%

Well, LP got above their average here last time, they have their leader here now, a bad area for LP has been moved in the revision, and they are 43% in Dublin on this poll, so I guess it’s no surprise that they’d be 47% here. RBB would have have to postpone the revolution for another 5 years. Interestingly, FF would hang on, with a vote that’s a bit better than the LP poll we heard of last month The most interesting part of the count might be which FF Minister hold on at the expense of the other.

RedC
FF 21%-1
FG 27%-1
LP 34%-2
PBP 10%
GP 5%
SF 4%

No change on above, but LP2 depending on transfers from PBP (if GP/SF don’t elect them first).

Continued here…