Three of Four

Part Three

A continuation of this

Galway E

L/MB
FF 17%-1
FG 48%-2
LP 26%-1 (yes, yes, I know….)

On the Lansdowne/Millward Brown poll, LP would come from way behind to taking a seat here, on these figures. It seems a lot, even to me, and if they fell short of that, I’d not be surprised, even with Gilmore being from here. However, if they did worse on the same national total, it’d have to be somewhere else.

RedC
FF 19%-1
FG 50%-2
LP 14%-1

Looks a bit more reasonable to me, I have to say, although tellingly it’s the same outcome. Colm Keaveney looks good to take a seat here, triggering a mass exodus of transsexuals from Tuam

Galway W
This is a tough one, as I’m not sure whether to include Michael D as a LP candidate, given he’s said it will depend on the timing of the election vis-a-vis the Presidential election. I’ve assumed he’s standing, so if he doesn’t you can assume a worse LP result

L/MB
FF 14%-1
FG 24%-1
LP 37%-2
OTHs 22%-1

It would appear that FF would hold onto a single seat here on these figures (O’Cuiv), if the swing in this poll materialised and MDH was running. Noel Grealish would also hang on, and LP2 would be elected on transfers.

RedC
FF 17%-1
FG 26%-1
LP 23%-1
OTHs 26%-2

On these figures, the FF seat would fall not to LP2, but to a second leftwing Indo, making Galway West the most diverse constituency delegation in the nest Dail.

Kerry N -Limerick
L/MB
FF 18%-1
FG 36%-1
LP 25%-1
SF 16%

Cliffhanger! LP take a seat, but the identity of the loser goes to a re-count. SF may do better in FG transfers than FF in a lot of places, but the general Limerick area may not be one of them.

RedC
FF 18%-1
FG 34%-1
SF 26%-1
LP 15%

Red C figures, LP well down (on other polls, that is…), SF well up, would see LP fighting it out with FF for the last seat. Very very close, and LP could definitely get it, but I’ve FF just a bit too far ahead to be pulled in without very good FG transfers, which Arthur may not pull off.

Kerry S

L/MB
FF 25%-1
FG 27%-1
LP 29%-1
H-R 17%

LP gain from the Healy-Raes, rather than FF.

RedC
FF 26%-1
FG 28%-1
LP 20%-1
H-R 18%

The same result, but much closer. The 2 polls together suggest that this constituency is between LP and IND for the last seat.

Kildare N

L/MB
FF 14%
FG 23%-1
LP 48%-2
Murphy 10%-1

On these figures, LP would gain one from FF, and the second FF seat would also fall to either Indo Catherine Murphy or LP3, with Murphy favourite to shade it, as a result of poor LP vote management.

RedC
FF 18%-1
FG 26%-1
LP 33%-1
Murphy 13%-1

In this scenario, LP2 loses out, but Murphy takes one of the 2 FF seats.

Kildare S

L/MB
FF 33%-1
FG 20%-1
LP 41%-1

FG take a seat from FF, nudging ahead of LP2, who don’t manage their vote sufficiently well enough to pull of a gain.

RedC
FF 37%-1
FG 22%-1
LP 32%-1

Same outcome, just less suspense….

Laois-Offaly

L/MB
FF 45%-2
FG 33%-2
LP 16%-1

LP win back the seat they took in the Spring Tide with Pat “Can Cope” Gallagher. Assuming they find a candidate….. Mental health Minister Maloney would lose the seat.

RedC
FF 46%-3
FG 33%-2
LP 8.6%
SF 8.5%

FF hold on to 3 out of the 5, with LP getting ahead of FG3 on SF transfers, but falling too far short to catch Moloney.

Limerick City

L/MB
FF 22%-1
FG 28%-1
LP 46%-2

Major changes here, a large chunk of FG-friendly votes being pushed out of the constituency, a loss of a seat, two FG finance spokespersons, a disgraced poll-topping former Minister sharing a FF ticket with a junior that many would see as more capable, a SF candidate who brought said Minister down, and a LP looking to capitalise on a Gilmore Gale.

Figures come out with LP and the boundary revision taking one each from FF and FG. I’d like to think O’Dea and Noonan would be the ones to go, but unfortunately I think it will be O’Donnell and Power. Both, however, would be back, IMO, the following election.

RedC
FF 25%-1
FG 31%-1
LP 32%-2
SF 7%

Same outcome, but closer between O’Donnell and Leddin (likely LP2) who gets in on SF transfers.

Limerick County

L/MB
FF 29%-1
FG 43%-1
LP 27%-1

LP pull off a seat at the expense of FF. This constituency has been volatile in the past, with the 3rd seat passing between FF, FG2 and even the PDs (when FG1 didn’t get in!).

RedC
FF 25%-1
FG 45%-2
LP 20%

RedC polling has FG take the seat ahead of LP on the final count

Longford Westmeath

L/MB
FF 24%-1
FG 30%-1
LP 42%-2

On these figures, Mae Sexton takes the last seat ahead of FG, continuing a bizarre LP/PD relationship in this constituency

RedC
FF 26%-1
FG 32%-1
LP 33%-2
SF 6%

As above, only closer.

Final part here