The final chapter…..

…. of this post – sorry it took so long. Any longer and I’d have had to add MRBI to it.

Louth
While this should be increasing to 5 seats, the unpleasantness about JOD resulted in the swash-buckling Seamus “T” Kirk taking over as CC, making this a 4-seater with an additional FF seat added automatically. A parcel of Meath E – I understand quite pro-LP is also going in, which makes it a little more volatile.

L/MB
FF 19%-2
FG 37%-2
LP 30%-1
SF 11%

A Gilmore Gale in the Lansdowne/MB poll, which should see the Drogheda based LP candidate (probably Nash) elected, and take the spare seat. FG would also gain, on these figures, with McGuinness taking the seat from SF’s Morgan, given the collapse of the SF vote in this poll. Dermot Ahern would, on these figures, be elected on transfers…. it would however vindicate Kirk’s selection as CC, given they wouldn’t have got 2/5 on these figures.

RedC
FF 20%-2
FG 36%-2
LP 15%
SF 20%-1
GP 5%

Very close contest for the last seat, but I’d probably have FG2 shading it from LP1, on the grounds that MCGuinness (sp?) is North of the county, and GP transfers, which LP would need on these figures, are from that end of the constituency. That may not be the outcome of course, and it would be very much re-count material.

Mayo
Given the freakishly high FG vote last time (boosted by the then popular Mayo Manager John O’Mahony), the fact that Bev was an Indo and is now FF, the fact that Dr Jerry was an Indo and is now LP, the likelihood that ex-LP Cllr Kilcoyle will run as an Indo … all make this one a hard one to call

L/MB
FF 25%-1
FG 54%-3
LP 15%-1

The good Dr to get in again, this time courtesy of a national swing. FF to lose out, although who? I’ve got it as Bev, but given she was an Indo before I’ve nothing to base that upon, other than a perhaps over-optimistic faith in human nature. Plus Calleary is likely to be a Minister whenever FF do come back, and I suspect local FF supporters will take that long term view.

RedC
FF 26%-1
FG 54%-3
LP 8.3%-1
SF 7.7%

Same outcome, but much much closer, Cowley staying ahead of FG4 on SF and IND transfers, and then getting sufficient surplus from FG3 to take the 4th seat, with the 5th between the 2 FF candidates.

Meath E

L/MB
FF 18%
FG 29%-1
LP 41%-2 (yes, yes, I know….)

LP’s Hannigan would take one seat from FF, and on these figures, LP2 (if such a creature existed) would take the other. Unlikely to see a running mate here for Hannigan, unless LP stay in the 30s.

RedC
FF 21%-1
FG 31%-1
LP 27%-1
SF 6%

Here, FF hold one of the seats, although interestingly LP would not be in trouble if they ran 2 candidates, with SF and OTH transfers making them comfortable for the single seat.

Meath W

L/MB
FF 27%-1
FG 36%-1
LP 28%-1
SF 8%

LP gain at the expense of FF, probably Brady, but with local man Shane Cassels attacking Dempsey, it’s unclear if the seat at cabinet will save him. He should probably hold on, but if you’re looking at high profile casualties, this could be one.

RedC
FF 29%-1
FG 36%-1
LP 14.4%-1
SF 15.9%

Much closer for LP, with them getting ahead of SF on transfers. If SF do poll 10% and LP aren’t much over 20%, LP are depending on polling more than FG2 and then getting a surplus from the election of English.

Roscommon/Leitrim

The Ming factor will be one to watch here. Luke Flanagan may have a high profile campaign, but with Indos set to have no leverage in the next Dail, he may find his support softer than he’d wish. If he does well though, he’ll damage ex-Indo Kelly, who is competing with him for the same votes.

L/MB
FF 24%-1
FG 43%-1
LP 20%-1

LP would gain a historic seat, with transfers pushing them ahead of FG2.

RedC
FF 25%-1
FG 43%-2
LP 11.8%
SF 12.5%

LP lose out – I have them getting ahead of SF on transfers, but never catching FG2 on the RedC figures.

Sligo / Leitrim

L/MB
FF 26%-1
FG 44%-1
LP 19%-1
SF 8%

O’Keefe takes a seat for LP, although presumably not the same as (ex-?) CPI member Declan Bree did in the Spring Tide. The seat would be at the expense of one of the 2 “Ind” FFers who I expect to be back on the ticket by then.

RedC
FF 27%-1
FG 43%-2
LP 11%
SF 16%

This time, the RedC surge for SF puts them ahead of LP, and FG benefit with a second seat, again at the expense of FF.

Tipp Nth
Lowry country. The spreadsheet assumes no responsibility for the predictions here, in much the same way Newtonian physics don’t work at the sub-atomic level….

L/MB
FF 20%
FG 20%-1
LP 25%-1
Lowry 28%-1

LP’s “The Quiet Man” Alan Kelly gets elected on a shoe-string budget, leaving FF (and Maire Hoctor) bereft of a seat here on these figures.

RedC
FF 21%-1
FG 21%-1
LP 16%
SF 6%
Lowry 30%-1

With RedC, LP lose out, with FF getting enough Lowry transfers to stay ahead of LP, regardless of SF no.2s.

Tipperary Sth

L/MB
FF 30%-1
FG 24%-1
LP 23%-1
Healy 16%

Prendergast takes a seat from FF – most likely Martin Manseragh (I can’t see
Mattie losing out – he’ll take their only seat if he runs as an Indo).

RedC
FF 32%-1
FG 25%-1
LP 15%
SF 5.5%
Healy 17%-1

Healy this time is the one to take the FF seat, with LP coming up short.

Waterford

The retirement of Martin Cullen (and the possibility of a by-election victor on the scene before the GE) makes this a harder one to call than most.

L/MB
FF 21%-1
FG 31%-1
LP 39%-2

On these figures, LP2 (possibly the by-election victor) would take Cullen’s seat, with no other changes.

RedC
FF 24%-1
FG 33%-2
LP 24%-1
SF 10%

On RedC, FG take the final seat instead, with SF and LP2 a distance behind. LP1 is safe though, whether they run 1 or 2 candidates.

Wexford

L/MB
FF 27%-1
FG 35%-2
LP 32%-2
SF 4%

LP2 (probably Enniscorthy based Pat Cody) would take a FF seat fairly comfortably, possibly Browne losing to Connick.

RedC
FF 29%-1
FG 36%-2
LP 22%-1
SF 11%-1

On the RedC figures, a big swing to SF means that they are the beneficiaries of FF’s fall from grace in Wexford.

Wicklow

The retirement of Liz McManus, the possibility of a Nicky Kelly solo-run, and Joe Behan’s intentions make this a very hard one to call.

L/MB
FF 17%-1
FG 30%-2
LP 39%-2

LP gain one from FF, probably Behan’s. The mooted 3 candidate strategy would not endanger the 2nd seat on these figures, and would have a long-shot chance if they pulled in extra votes at the expense of FG and/or FF.

RedC
FF 20%-1
FG 31%-2
LP 23%-1
SF 8%
GP 5%
Behan 10%-1

LP 2 loses out to Behan (if he runs). LP3 would need to pull in extra votes to be a benefit, rather than a hindrance to their chances. Definitely a constituency where LP can’t decide on final line up until they know what range of support they’re looking at.

So that’s what last weeks polls suggest in each area. I hope it’s been worth the wait!

Dotski