Irish Polling Report

A place to discuss Irish opinion polls

Quantum Corrections….

with 3 comments

As I noted here Quantum ‘Research’ polls have more than an air of something made up in the office, somewhat like football transfer gossip, and when their last poll suggested support for an alternative FF leader ran at 70% Lenihen and 30% Martin (and apparently nothing for Hanafin, Ahern, Coughlan etc or DKs) I expressed subtle reservations. The Indo have, co-incidentally, been pushing for Lenihen to take over for some time now

Since then, MRBI asked a similar question and got a somewhat more credible result (39% Lenihen and 18% Martin, with Hanafin 8%, Ahern 6%, Oth 5% and DK 24%). Now, for reasons best known to themselves, QR have decided to ‘ask’ the same question.

This time the results are a bit more realistic (i.e. much closer to the MRBI finding) but still show a swing to Lenihen since the early part of last week (no doubt as a result of all that good news regarding his handling of the banks…). Now, Quantum suggests 46% Lenihen, and 13% Martin. The breakdown of the remaining 41% isn’t revealed – no doubt a rocketing number of DKs from the 0% reported last time…

Also ‘asked’ was whether Cowen should step down as Taoiseach before the next election, with 68% being the figure reported (they helpfully exclude the figures for No and DK, allowing you to fill in the blanks with your own figures!). The figure in the IT earlier this week were 61/29/10, so it would appear to be a case of take the MRBI figure and push it up a bit.

The poll also has figures on support for Enda walking (71% say yes, presumably none of them LP supporters), and they reckon 61% support RB taking over (13% Leo). Needless to say, FG will ignore this if they are a serious party with the collective judgement required to lead a Government.

So that’s Enda gone by the end of the month, I guess…..

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Written by Dotski

October 3, 2010 at 8:53 am

Posted in Uncategorized

3 Responses

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  1. Seriously, how are the SIndo getting away with this?

    As far as I can see, they don’t even mention how many people were surveyed. Then they reveal findings from “a random poll of FG TDs and Senators”. You’d think the word ‘random’ should be redundant here given that polls are generally presumed to be random.

    However, if anything, it’s unlikely this survey of politicians was remotely random. Unless they were drawing phone numbers out of a hat or something, the chances are they knew who they were calling.

    This is at best a ‘straw poll’ of a subset of a small group of parliamentarians, telling us nothing much. If they knew that three or four Kenny supporters had switched to Bruton, that would at least tell us something.

    But again, as you have said plenty of times already, this is bunkum – read/seen by half the adult electorate today. Sigh.

    No wonder we’re fked. We’ve tolerated – and rewarded – the lowest standards of intellectual rigour from all quarters for decades.

    ixelles

    October 3, 2010 at 11:04 am

  2. At what point does it become counterproductive?
    Surely at some point all the hyperbolic screaming of “Red Eamon” and “Union Lackey” just looks ridiculous.

    I guess they are counting on “mud sticks”, but if they keep lowering expectations like this, unless Labour completely cocks up their figures (and that ain’t gonna happen) the real Labour will look fantastic by comparison to the fantasy they are pushing.

    At this rate Labour will be able to run ads saying “The establishment, bankers, developers and billionaires don’t want Labour in power, Vote Labour”

    Between the 97 front page editorial, Eircom stripping and the current campaign, INM and TO’R are setting themselves up for a fairly convincing role as Iago in an election sub-plot. Such unvarnished bias and manipulation has to be a double edged sword, doesn’t it?

    Neville Bagnall

    October 4, 2010 at 8:02 am

    • One would hope! I do think though that we’ve seen nothing yet, particularly if LP continue to climb. just wait for the LP/SF scare stories if LP and SF combined near 45%….

      Dotski

      October 4, 2010 at 9:20 pm


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