Irish Polling Report

A place to discuss Irish opinion polls

RedC move back in line

with 7 comments

It’s been reported in politics.ie that the latest RedC poll has hit the streets, about 3 hours + ahead of the embargo. The figures are good for LP, OK for FG and GP, and make bleak reading for FF.

Figures reported by two posters are; FF 18 -6, FG 32 +1, Labour 27 +4, SF 9 -1, Green 4 +1, Ind 10 +1.

These figures would be an absolute disaster for FF, who have done better in RedC than the other companies. Similarly, for LP this would be their joint highest ever rating with RedC.

When I run it through the spreadsheet I get the following figures;

FG 61
LP 57
FF 27
SF 7
GP 3
OTH 11

Obviously this would be a significant improvement for LP on the previous RedC poll and shows RedC moving a bit closer to the MRBI/Lansdowne consensus that LP are above 30%. it would also suggest, given this is still the worst polling figure for LP, that the race for top party is definitely between them and FG. The trend in all the polling companies is in LP’s favour, although that could of course change. Although, at this stage, one has to wonder, when?

Interestingly, a FG/FF coalition would have a working majority, with 88 TDs, without being massive.

FG of course will be aware of this, and I’d expect them to start trying to knock LP, but they’ll have to be subtle – if they do it cack-handed, they’ll be suggesting that they want to enter coalition with a party that shouldn’t be trusted. Given Alan Shatter’s clumsiness in his attempts to put some distance between them, and the public reaction, that could be dangerous.

Have to run, but will put together a breakdown in the next day or so on where these gains appear to be falling.

Advertisements

Written by Dotski

October 23, 2010 at 6:08 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

7 Responses

Subscribe to comments with RSS.

  1. Also, I would view a FG-Lab majority of that size (117 — 70% of the seats) as excessive.

    FF-LP-GP would also be a small majority.

    Tomboktu

    October 23, 2010 at 10:20 pm

    • surely that would be LP-FF-GP? 😉

      FG/FF at 88 would I think be what Independent newspapers would focus upon. Imagine the daily tracking polls from Quantum Research demanding an “end to civil war politics” ….

      Dotski

      October 23, 2010 at 11:21 pm

      • “surely that would be LP-FF-GP? 😉

        Indeed. Bloody conditioning, still affecting me.

        Tomboktu

        October 24, 2010 at 2:08 pm

  2. […] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Cailín, James Lawless. James Lawless said: http://bit.ly/czVbFo RedC – grim reading […]

  3. Excellent stuff. Key question…

    “The trend in all the polling companies is in LP’s favour, although that could of course change. Although, at this stage, one has to wonder, when?”

    Budget 2011?

    Er… not likely.

    WorldbyStorm

    October 24, 2010 at 11:57 am

    • Cheers WBS,

      Yes, it’s hard to see an FF recovery, but LP are probably more worried about FG at this stage.

      FF are damaged goods (for at least 4-5 years), their best hope is that they return enough promising TDs (e.g. in Lim City, not O’Dea, but Power, in D/L not Hanafin but Andrews, in Mayo not Flynn but Calleary, in Dub Nth not Kennedy but O’Brien) that will allow them be a competent opposition to the Lp/Fg or FG/LP coalition which will be making some choices that will be unpopular, and be well placed to come back in 2016.

      FG however will be now trying to capitalise on the general sense that we’re facing catastrophe, that we need to slash and burn, and hoping that they will get votes out of that, given they are the most likely to cut the largest amount.

      Of course, the question is how they will promote that idea, while still looking compatible with LP.

      Difficult for them. LP on the other hand are I think overly tied into the parameters set by FF on budget deficit, and may have difficulties in crafting a coherent message, particularly if they are going to run scared of talking about taxes….

      Dotski

      October 24, 2010 at 9:16 pm

  4. […] do some number crunching on this poll, but my own response? Well best summed up by Dotski’s excellent initial analysis on the day where he asked one very pertinent question: The trend in all the polling companies is […]


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: