RedC move back in line

It’s been reported in politics.ie that the latest RedC poll has hit the streets, about 3 hours + ahead of the embargo. The figures are good for LP, OK for FG and GP, and make bleak reading for FF.

Figures reported by two posters are; FF 18 -6, FG 32 +1, Labour 27 +4, SF 9 -1, Green 4 +1, Ind 10 +1.

These figures would be an absolute disaster for FF, who have done better in RedC than the other companies. Similarly, for LP this would be their joint highest ever rating with RedC.

When I run it through the spreadsheet I get the following figures;

FG 61
LP 57
FF 27
SF 7
GP 3
OTH 11

Obviously this would be a significant improvement for LP on the previous RedC poll and shows RedC moving a bit closer to the MRBI/Lansdowne consensus that LP are above 30%. it would also suggest, given this is still the worst polling figure for LP, that the race for top party is definitely between them and FG. The trend in all the polling companies is in LP’s favour, although that could of course change. Although, at this stage, one has to wonder, when?

Interestingly, a FG/FF coalition would have a working majority, with 88 TDs, without being massive.

FG of course will be aware of this, and I’d expect them to start trying to knock LP, but they’ll have to be subtle – if they do it cack-handed, they’ll be suggesting that they want to enter coalition with a party that shouldn’t be trusted. Given Alan Shatter’s clumsiness in his attempts to put some distance between them, and the public reaction, that could be dangerous.

Have to run, but will put together a breakdown in the next day or so on where these gains appear to be falling.