Irish Polling Report

A place to discuss Irish opinion polls

RedC Analysis Oct 2010

with 23 comments

Apologies for the delay in getting a more detailed analysis of Sunday’s RedC up, it’s been a busy few days for me personally.

Carlow-Kilkenny
The spreadsheet has adjustments to cope with (a) McGuiness portraying himself as an outsider, and (b) a low proportion of the Spring Tide occurring here in ’92. The double effect minimises the LP gain here to just over 20%, with FF relatively strong on 28%, FG 36%, GP 7.6% and SF 5.8%.

While a LP2 candidate is in the running if they split their vote well and get decent transfers from GP and SF, putting LP2 ahead of FG3, I suspect they’d not manage all this on these figures, and there’ll be enough GP transfers and leakage from LP/SF to ensure FF2 stays ahead of FG3.

It would be very close, however, and certainly no risk to LP1 in a 2-candidate strategy – an even split of 10% each would have them both ahead of 13-14% worth of GP/SF votes, and a lop-sided split (unlikely if a candidate from each county) would see them about 13/7 (again with that many GP/SF around). Given they poll better with other companies, and are still safe with this one, it would appear that 2 candidates would be the right choice. Similarly, while FG would be a good bit short for a 3rd seat, their second is safe no matter what they do, so they may as well go for it.

Cavan-Monaghan

Very tight, I have LP just shading a seat here, but could as easily go to the Indo. Figures come out as 19% FF, 36% FG, 8% LP, 3% GP, 24.6% SF and 9% Oths. When I run the simulation, LP’s (Cavan-based) probable candidate Des Cullen is just ahead of the leading (Monaghan-based) Indo Paudge Connolly, and just behind SF2, who will be Cavan based. I have him staying ahead of Connolly, and getting enough transfers from him and GP to sidle ahead of SF2, and largely be elected on those Cavan-based SF transfers, after they are used to push O’Caolain over the line.

It is however the tightest gain for LP in the country, and if rumours I’m starting to hear about a 2 candidate strategy are accurate, they can kiss this one goodbye, on these figures certainly. FF on these figures would be very disappointed, having got 2/4 plus the CC here last time, with Brendan Smyth most likely their sole TD. FG will be hoping that, if they can split their vote very evenly between 3 candidates, and get good transfers from SF and the Connolly, all 3 can stay ahead of LP, but their difficulty is that they have one outgoing TD, and the other 2 candidates are likely to be significantly down the field, particularly if LP poll well in Cavan and SF do as well as projected in Monaghan. 1/2/1/1 it how I’d call it, but SF2 and IND both are very much in the running for that seat I’ve given to LP.

A good bet for an all-nighter.

Clare
A bit like the previous constituency, there is a final seat that no-one really deserves on these figures, but it has to go to someone. FF vote down to 25%(1), FG just under 42% (2) account for 3 obvious seats, but then it’s between FG3, LP on 9% and Oths (14%) for the final seat, with SF and GP both offering 5% each in transfers to act as kingmakers. While it’s anyone’s guess really, I have it going to former Ind TD James Breen, assuming that he runs.

Cork East
Slightly less complicated this, with FF on 18%, FG 32%, LP 38%, SF on 7.4% and GP on 2.3%. FF lose a seat to LP (probably the younger Mulvihill), with FG well short for that second seat they’ve had their eye on. Only possible surprise would be if SF field GAA legend Donal Og Cusack, who I’m informed is quite popular in these parts, which would be most likely to see the gain made by them instead of LP.

Cork NC
The spreadsheet is predicting a collapse in the FF vote here to 8% – needless to say, that’d be them losing representation here, with Kelleher a high profile casualty. This should bother them, as they’ll be looking to come out of this election with enough good performers to be an effective opposition, and he’d be a loss to them in that respect. Noel O’Flynn, on the other hand……

FG at 32.7% and LP at 29.2% both look to me to have balanced enough tickets to take 2 seats each, although SF at 10% and SP’s Mick Barry at around 7% are likely to challenge. Either could pull it off if they poll a few percent better and/or either FG or LP fail to split their vote well.

Cork NW
Here, the Gilmore Gale may fall short, if RedC are to believed. The spreadsheet suggests that while FF will fall to 32% and 1 seat, FG at 45% will take a second seat, in the face of a challenge from LP at 17%. This is a constituency where LP will be hoping that MRBI & Lansdowne are closer to the truth, or that local factors will assist. A local poll conducted on behalf of FF does however hold out hope for them.

Cork SC
Regular readers will be aware of the FG poll suggesting 2 LP seats here, and this is supported by this projection, which shows them obtaining pretty much the same result (27.5%) largely at the expense of FF (16%). FG are comfortable to take 2 seats at 37%, and GP (7.5%) and SF (7%) do slightly better than the FG poll, but all within the margin of error, so it would appear it was an accurate enough poll. On these figures, the last seat is won by Paula Desmond for LP.

Cork SW
Here, FF drop to 23%, and so hold one seat, along with FG (39.7%), and LP (23.9%), a net gain of 1 by LP from FG, who are losing PJ Sheehan to a driving related retirement…. The other transfers a-going are SF (6.5%) and GP (5.9%), making it unlikely that FG2 will be able to stem the Gilmore Gale here.

Donegal NE
Massive drop in the FF vote here to 29% leaving them with 1 seat where previously they held 3 (albeit on the defection of IFF’s Neal Blaney). FG seat is won with 27% of the FPV, and the last seat is SF’s on these figures, with McLoughlin on 19.7% staying ahead of LP’s Harte (13.2%). LP may take, ummmm, heart, though in that they are close enough in RedC, and ahead of SF in Lansdowne (and closer in MRBI). It could of course be thrown open if McDaid runs as an Indo, in which case all bets would be off.

Donegal SW
Similar to NE, with FF (29%), FG (26%) and SF (25.8%) taking the 3 seats, with 15% for McBrearty. This of course is a projection of the national swing in RedC, and McBrearty will be hoping that figures from MRBI and Lansdowne are more accurate, given they tally better with a local FG poll Still, SF are very much the favourite here, and it would be a major surprise if they didn’t get the 3rd seat in current circumstances. McBrearty is likely to have a better chance n the bye-election, and so his best hope may be for this to happen first.

Dublin C
Only 1 of the 4 seats here appears certain, in the shape of Joe Costello, and the destination of at least one other will be dependant on whether or not he accepts this as being the case, and splits his vote. LP come out at 36.4%, with FG fairly well placed at 14.6% to take a seat also (if somewhat lacking in obvious transfers). FF (10.8%) would not appear to have a realistic chance, and while SF may have better prospects at 10.3%, I can see both of them fall short of INDs (23.7%), probably O’Sullivan, although I’d not rule out Perry, and LP2 (probably Clancy). All very close, mind, with at least 6 realistic contenders. If I was offered good odds on Perry, I might fancy a flutter…..

Dublin MW
FG have been convincing themselves that they are in line to go from zero seats to two here, despite Fitzgerald and Keating having less than one quota between them last time, and Keating managing his share with the help of genuine Indo voters who will now be looking for another home. Much of this optimism is based upon the (probable) departure of Mary Harney, the presumption that her vote will all go to them, and of course the general swing to FG being picked up in most polls. However, this ignores the facts that (a) the national swing to FG includes ex-PD voters, and so they are counting that parcel of votes twice, (b) Harney’s vote was very personal, and having lost her, it’ll be dispersed rather less uniformly than that, and (c) in the last locals, despite the other parties not being able to field their vote-getting TDs (a disadvantage that didn’t arise for FG) they couldn’t break the 30% barrier, and they are unlikely to get transfers from the likes of SF and PBP, nor FF who will make up most of the transfers going.

The spreadsheet based on RedC suggests that LP on 38% are well placed to take 2 seats, and FG are safe for 1 on 23%, even assuming they split the vote very evenly. However, that’s where it all gets a bit hairy. FF bomb here (that’s even assuming they start with a chunk of Harney’s vote) at 8.8% and on these figures Curran will be transfer fodder.

So who will his vote transfer to? While Fitzgerald (who I’m calling as the likely FG2) will be hopeful at about 10%, SF on 10.9% and Gogarty on 9.3% would be similarly so, and in my view with more reason. Personally, I think the biggest chunk will stay in the Govt pile, to the benefit of the GP man, putting him ahead of SF and FG2. Transfers from OTH will be largely left-ish, and may favour SF, GP and FG in that order, but not by enough to make a significant difference, leaving Fitzgerald’s transfers to (a) elect Keating, and then (b) push either Gogarty or O’Broin ahead of the other (who I have pretty neck and neck at this stage). I suspect that, when push comes to shove, those who express a preference will go for Gogarty in greater numbers than SF. But it’ll be close.

Dublin North

Close one, and possibly closer than a uniform swing would suggest. On these figures, FF would lose both seats to LP, falling to 13.6%, LP getting 29.6%, FG would increase to just over a quota, Sargant would hold on at 13.8% (being ahead of FF and picking up some of their transfers) but Clare Daly at 11.3% would fall short. FF will of course be hoping that Gilmore’s talk of pushing back Metro North will lose him votes in Swords (it’s unlikely to make much difference along the East of the constituency where the Arrow line serves commuters very well), but if it does, one suspects that Sargant, rather than Kennedy is likely to be the beneficiary. Even if it helps Kennedy, it may result in the FF vote splitting more evenly, as Kennedy is still likely to fall behind O’Brien, but the latter being based in Malahide is unlikely to get much of a boost from this.

Needless to say, having an evenly split vote is not good when you’re chasing one seat with less than a quota. Given O’Brien is still likely to be ahead (due to the split in Swords), and Kennedy would be eliminated, the extra votes he may get out of the Metro North issue are likely to transfer to Sargant, and perhaps Daly, making the main effect a closer fight over the last seat between LP2 and SP.

For LP the vital issue is to split the vote well. Senator Brendan Ryan is the front runner, and given this imperative it’s possibly no bad thing that he’s not the most dynamic of candidates, but they still need to select another candidate soon if LP2 is not to become an also-ran. Kelleher has been mentioned, but given his Swords base he’ll need to run as a “Metro-rebel” if he’s to take any advantage of that. The alternative is a female parachute with links to Swords or Balbriggan.

I’d still just about call it 2 LP, 1 GP, 1 FG on these figures, and given this is RedC, that’s probably where it’s going.

Dub NC
FF collapse to 11%, FG get 31%, LP 27%, and OTHs 17%. That’s Bruton, O’Riordan and McGrath in my book (unless the Indo vote is mopped up by Callelly!) ;). FG and LP are both comfortable enough to enjoy the luxury of running mates, if they so wish. It would appear that nothing can save Haughey at this stage, and he may start looking ahead to the Seanad campaign.

Dub NE
FF slump to 10.7%, with no chance of a seat. FG come out comfortable enough with 26.5%, and LP on 41.3% appear to be a good bet to take 2 seats, nudging out SF who at 14.4% would be their main opposition.

Dub NW
Labour should expect to do very well here. Even in RedC, which is their poorest company, they are certain of 2 seats with 47%, and would even be in the hunt for 3 if they ran a reasonably balanced ticket (but they won’t, so they don’t). The real issue is therefore where the final seat would fall. FF will be disappointed to be starting at 16% between 2 outgoing TD, but this is consistent with the swing against them being recorded in the capital. It would keep them ahead of FG, however, who even up to 13% can’t see this as a great prospect for them. If LP had a 3 candidate strategy splitting 19/14/14 “Mad Bill” Tormey could even fall behind LP3 (and on MRBI and Lansodwne figures he would), but the reality is that there’ll be just 2 candidates, and he’ll most likely help Dessie Ellis of SF stay ahead of Pat Carey for the last seat.

The Metro North issue again could see FF perform better at LP’s expense, however LP would still appear safe for the second seat even if they lost 10%, thanks to FG transfers, and the effect would more likely see Carey pull ahead of Ellis (through no fault of SF). But on these figures I’d call it 2LP, 1SF.

Dublin S
FF 14%, FG 35%, LP 35%, GP 9%, SF 4%. Fairly straightforward 1/2/2, although if Ryan takes votes from FF as the leading Govt candidate here, it’s likely to see him take the seat off them. FG and LP would both be safe running 3rd candidates, and the latter doing so could seal Ryan’s fate, as LP3 could conceivably poll ahead of him. FG’s hopes of a 3rd seat here appear doomed, but no doubt they’ll give it a lash anyway, in memory of GLee…..

Dub SC
FF collapse here to 6.7% – even with one candidate that’s toast, with both TDs losing out. I’d expect one of them to retire, leaving the other to try to pull it off. FG on 18% would see Byrne safe enough with a nice little surplus, but at 45%, LP appear likely to go from barely missing the 2nd seat (when at 10% nationally in ’07) to taking a 3rd seat comfortably.

The last seat is very hard to call but also seems certain to go left, despite the 3 LP TDs. I ran this twice (for the fun of it), once with 3 LP candidates and once with 4 (HUpton, Byrne, Moynihan & Conaghan), and the latter saw them about 4% short of pulling off the 4th seat (a split of 15/13/11/10 would have been required, which is possible with MRBI/Lansdowne figures, but not RedC). However, on these figures, PBP’s Joan Collins (no, not that one) pips SF’s O’Snodaigh for the last seat.

Dublin SE.
LP get 2 seats from 38.5%, FG hold one on 23.5%, and GP (11.5%) and FF (13.6%) fight it out for the last seat. While one can see the rationale behind Andrews Twittered overtures to FG voters, I’d just about call this one for Gormley, who may do better on OTH transfers. he is vulnerable though – ultimately his fate will depend on him arguing that yes, he signed the order for the incinerator, but that he then stymied it so that it wouldn’t get in.

Dublin SW
Two seats for LP on 39.1%, and one each for FG (24.1%) and SF (15.6%). Tallaman and the lesser-Lenihen end up with 10.4% between them on these figures, making another 2-seat drop likely.

Dublin W
For reasons you’ll all understand, I’ve given FF’s Brian Lenihen a bonus, based on what I suspect will be significant sympathy for the man, and how he is dealing with his illness. However, on these figures, it would appear that he’d still need FF to be higher than 18% nationally if he’s to hold his seat. These figures still have LP taking 2 seats (with 43% of the vote), Leo V at 17.9% looks safe enough, and Higgins also at 17.9% is likely to stay ahead of FF’s 14.6% when 5.5% of SF transfers (and 3% LP surplus) are distributed. Again, as in NW, if FF took votes from LP over the Metro North issue (while most of this constituency is closer to rail lines, a good chunk of Swords is now here), LP should still be quite safe, but in this case FF could hold off Higgins, who will need transfers to return to the next Dail, even with the extra seat.

One to watch, I think.

Dun Laoghaire
A drop of a seat here, and 3 Ministers (2 at cabinet), a colourful Indo, and the man they’ll all be talking about, this will get some coverage during the campaign. LP would on these figures be looking at 37.8%, and with GP at 5.7%, SF 2.8% and OTH (mainly PBP) coming out at 10.9%, LP2 (whoever that is) would appear pretty safe. FG’s hopes of pulling 2 seats looks unlikely at 26.9%, and FF look good for a seat, with 15.9%. Even here though it’s not certain, as they may have it split quite evenly, which would maximise leakage, however, there would not appear to be anyone close enough to take it from them, unless PBP perform better than expected.

Galway E
FF collapse here, with fewer PD votes going their way due to Cannon going FG. I have them at 12.4%, which makes them unlikely to take any seat, which would be a disaster for them. No doubt they’ll be hoping to buck the trend here, but on these figures they’ll be up against it. FG are set to poll very well here (51.9%), and Cannon being on the ticket should see them take 3 seats. Possibly more remarkable is the projection that LP would be on 18.3%, and favourites to take the seat, with either Keaveny, or, if the rumours are to believed, a former independent running mate. OTHs show up at 11.3%, and if LP don’t poll as well as projected, they may face a challenge from former IFF TD McHugh, who would be expected to do well on FF transfers if he runs.

Galway W
OK – this one has a major caveat, as the spreadsheet currently contains no adjustment for Michael D being off the LP ticket, which was confirmed last week. I would stress though that when I reduce the figure for LP here, it’ll ripple back a small increase across the rest of the country as the total LP vote nationally will stay the same, and so any changes are likely to cancel out at the national level. Currently it shows a collapse in the FF vote to 10%, FG up to 26% and taking a second seat, LP similarly taking two on 27.5%, and OTHs yielding former PD Noel Grealish. When I re-cast the spreadsheet, I suspect that we’ll see FF gain one from LP here, although as I say LP likely to gain another elsewhere as a result of the redistribution of the same national total. For the purposes of the national total, therefore, this is 0/2/2/1.

Kerry N
Safe seat here for FG’s Jimmy Mujaha-Deenihen on 36.1%, I can see them considering a running mate with those sort of figures. There’s also a collapse in the FF vote to 14.3%. SF look well placed to take the second seat, with their projection at 24.6%, with Arthur Spring favourite to take the last seat, polling 18.6%, with only a resurgence in FF (or a strong running mate for FG) putting him in danger. Or perhaps him opening his mouth again.

Kerry S
FG appear safe at 28.5%, and LP would be expected to take a seat here with 23.5% (if they can find a decent candidate). The Bull O’Donoghue would appear slight favourite to hold on here, getting just over 21% falling into the FF column, compared to 20% for Oths (mainly, one presumes Healy-Rae, the Next Generation). It would be very close though, and it’s largely O’Donoghue’s tenacity that makes me see him holding on here. I also think that the ‘local man done wrong’ card will see him do better on transfers than you’d think…..

Kildare N
LP on 38.4% here, should take 2 seats, even with a poor split, with Catherine Murphy with 13.8% to take a seat on GP/SF/oth transfers (polling 3.7 , 3.5% and 3% respectively). FG’s stated hopes of 2 seats here appear on the hopeful side, with them showing 26% in RedC, their best company. FF bombing here at 11%.

Kildare S
A different picture, with FF holding on to 30.3% and one of their two seats. FG take the other from them with 22.8%, and LP are romping home with 36.2%, most likely Wall in the mid 20s and a running mate in the low teens.

Laois-Offaly
This one depends on whether LP can get their act together. FF on 40% are only sure of 2 seats (and that’s including the addition of a leaders bonus and some PD votes), and FG on 35% similarly. The spreadsheet projects LP getting 11.4% here, with some transfers likely from SF (7.9%) and OTHs (4.2%), which I see as the final seat.

Enright off the ticket makes FG harder to call, and this may inform LP’s choice of candidate. However, perhaps of more importance is making sure they are in a position to maximise their benefit from SF transfers. While they don’t appear to have a candidate of the calibre of Pat Gallagher, who memorably took a seat here when LP were far lower in the polls, it appears that a solid enough county councillor (or an articulate younger woman candidate to appeal to former Enright voters) running on the LP ticket should be able to take this seat as part of a Gilmore Gale.

Limerick City
The loss of a seat makes this a 4-seater, and the area leaving the city is apparently good FG country. The projections are that FF would be 18%, FG 32% and LP 37%, with 6% SF. On these figures, 2 LP would be safe enough, leaving both FF and FG with a dilemma. FF would have to decide if O’Dea really needs to run, as if FF are to come back in 2015/6, it’ll be Power that’ll be their future. Their fear of course may be that without O’Dea’s personal vote, they may not even pull in the single seat. For FG, it would appear that they’ll lose either Noonan or O’Donnell to the constituency review (and Gilmore gale). It’s hard to see SF make up the sort of ground they need to take this seat, regardless of Quinlivan’s high profile.

Limerick County
FF safe enough with 26.2%, FG very competitive with 46.5%, and LP coming in at 22.7%. I have LP shading it on Green transfers (they are 2.3% short on FPVs, whereas FG need 3.5% and have the risk of leakage). But very close.

Longford-Westmeath
For some reason, the projections from here send FG apoplectic every time…..
LP aren’t trebling their vote here like they are nationally, despite a Longford candidate this time, despite a gender balanced ticket this time, and despite her being a former TD. They are however doubling their vote to 37.2%, and with a fair share of SF (4.7%) and GP/Oth transfers are safe enough for that second seat. FF will be well down at 21.4%, but safe enough for one seat, and FG will make do with seat from 33.1%. Although this time they may be spared the embarrassment of that sole rep being James Bannon…..

Louth
Big news here if this poll is accurate. FF at 18% nationally is coming out as them at 13.6% here. Making Seamus Kirk Ceann Comhairle moves this from being a safe-ish seat for them to no chance, thereby ending Dermot Ahern’s stint in the Dail. On these figures, FG with 37.6% would take a second seat, LP on 19.4% would take one (probably Nash in Drogheda, although there’s talk they’ll run a Dundalk sweeper) and SF would hold a seat at 18.9%. Ahern’s best hope would be that rumours of Morgan’s retirement are accurate, and that a rooky SF candidate would slip just enough votes to Ahern for him to hang on.

Mayo
Or the Empire of Inda. Here, they look set to get 56%, which is 3 safe seats and a shot at a fourth. FF at 21.2% are safe for one, which means Dara Calleary and the “Class Act” BCF fighting it out. And who is FG fighting it out with? Former Indo Jerry Cowley looks set to get about 10.7%, SF are 7%, and Indos (probably mainly former LP member Kilcoyle) at 5.2%, and for me that’s Cowley. 1/3/1.

Meath E
I’m hearing conflicting rumours as to whether Lp’s Hannigan will have a running mate, but the more reliable ones suggest that he’ll be flying solo. If that’s the case, he’s safe as houses with LP likely to get 32.1% and one seat, with a very large surplus to spare. The likely beneficiary would be FG who, as it happens are also on 32.1%, but will be running 2 candidates. FF are at 14.3%, and SF (5.3%), GP (2.4%) and OTH (13.9%) seem unlikely to help them catch FG2. LP2 or Brian Fitzgerald appear the only danger to the FG2 seat here, but neither are likely to run from what I’ve picked up, so I’ve called it 0/2/1.

Meath W
FF hold on here (presumably Dempsey, although one can never tell) with 21.1%, as do FG rather more comfortably with 38.1%. LP are in line to take a seat, with 19.2%, ahead of SF on 14.9%. LP are still to select their candidate, with 3 going forward shortly to convention, so I hear….

Roscommon-S Leitrim
FF hold on with 20.1%, and FG hold both seats with 44.6%. LP’s Kelly too far behind (on this poll) with 14.5%, ahead of SF on 11.5% and OTHs on 7.6% (including Ming the Mayor)

Sligo-N Leitrim
As above, FF hold on with 22% (although which of the prodigal sons would be hard to call), and FG take a 2nd seat with 45.1%. Here this poll suggests LP’s O’Keefe behind SF on FPVs (13.3% vs 14.7%) and whichever is ahead after lower candidates are eliminated is too far behind FG2 to catch him.

Tipp Nth
Indos 38.3% hold 1 seat (thereby sticking one to the urban elites in their ivory towers, no doubt…). Expect the surplus to go everywhere, but FG (20.8%) and LP (18.6%) are likeliest to be pushed over the line, compared to FF on 16.5%, particularly when SF transfers of 5% are divvied out.

Tipp S
Gilmore Gale misses out here on these figures, with Prendergast mustering 18%, compared to FF (26.3%), FG (25.3%) and Healy 19%, Healy getting it on SF transfers.

Waterford
Very hard one to call, and preparations for the bye-election would add to that. LP, at 29.4%, when another 19% of the vote is left-leaning and divided, should be well placed to take 2 seats, but there’s no sign of them even selecting a bye-election candidate. This means I see them with O’Shea topping the poll with about 22% or so, but a very weak running mate on 7% falling behind both SF and Gilligan, who would be around 9% each. Whoever emerged from this group would be fighting it out with FG2 (presumably Coffey) for the last two seats as they are on 34.2%, and FF who would be on 16.3%. The FF seat I think would be quite likely, leaving the last seat between Gilligan and Coffey, and my projections show the former taking it by a very small margin. If SF had got ahead of Halligan, I’d tip FG to stay ahead of them, but as an Independent I’d see Halligan as transfer friendly for LP and SF voters.

Rumours abound that he’ll run for LP, but if they’re true it’s all taking a very long time, so I’m dubious. If he did, the 2nd LP seat would be almost certain. As it is, I’m going 1/1/1/1

Wexford
FF are on course to lose a seat to LP here, dropping to 23.3% while Howlin and his running mate (tipped to be Pat Cody) would have 25.6% between them, and FG looking at 37.2% and holding 2 seats. While FG will no doubt try to split their vote three ways to catch LP2, it’s likely that a geographically balanced LP ticket will do well on SF transfers (9.7%) making it implausible for FG3 to sneak in, and indeed SF would appear to be the biggest threat to LP2.

Wicklow
Liz McManus has gone, but LP still look like making a net gain here. While they are barely above their national vote at 28%, that’s them well placed in a 5-seater, particularly where neither candidate is an outgoing TD who’ll get the lion’s share of the vote. It’s still not clear if her son will be on the ticket, but it’s pretty certain there’ll be a candidate from the Bray end of the County. After that, it’s not clear, as Kelly, Kavanagh and a former Indo in the West of the County have all been mooted, as has a three-candidate strategy. On these figures, they may well be best concentrating on two candidates.

FG would also be looking at 2 seats, with 32.1%, leaving the last seat between FF (on 12.3%) and Behan, one of about 14% I see going to OTH. I’d call it Behan, who will do better on SF (7.1%) and GP (6.4%) transfers. If he doesn’t run, that seat would stay with FF. So expect Dick Roche to start love bombing Joe pretty soon….

The state of the parties after that is

FG 61
LP 57
FF 27
SF 7
GP 3
OTH 11

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Written by Dotski

October 26, 2010 at 9:59 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

23 Responses

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  1. […] […]

    Red C Analysis

    October 26, 2010 at 10:02 pm

  2. One comment about FF’s chances in a number of the 2-county constituencies; it may be that whatever personal first preferences local TDs get may not be willing to cross a county boundary if those candidates are eliminated.

    On the figures you come up with above, I’d not be surprised to see FF winding up without a seat in either Longford-Westmeath or Roscommon-Leitrim, for example – Leitrim FF voters might prefer the local man Kenny of SF or even Ming the Merciless to Finneran, and Longford FF voters who’d given Peter Kelly their number 1 might stay within the county to support Auntie Mae ahead of Mammy (or more likely an unknown Westmeath FF candidate). Bonkers will cruise home…

    Paddy Matthews

    October 27, 2010 at 12:47 am

    • Hi Paddy,

      LWm and Roscommon are certainly places where FF could struggle, but in my spreadsheet they generally hold on, Roscommon will indeed be very unpredictable though, and the battle between Kelly and Flanagan (who I understand are from nearby) could decide the outcome, as the final seat there almost falls to someone by default.

      FF will in LwM be very conscious of candidate strategy alright given they appear to be close to a quota. Fg on the other hand – hard to say exactly who will emerge from them. Bannon won’t have the Longford PD transfers (most likely now in the Sexton column) and she will be around long enough to deprive him of other Longford anti-Govt transfers in a way that Penrose couldn’t. Looking at the figures, it’s hard to see Longford take two seats, and Sexton appears to me to be in pole position to take the first one. McFadden was 1,900 behind Bannon at the end last time, but with those factors hitting him, I fancy him to lose out next time out.

      But it looks close alright, so I’ll not be putting the house on it!

      Dotski

      October 28, 2010 at 2:42 pm

      • I disagree where Bonkers is concerned. Yes, he’s a national embarrassment, but as long as he’s not successfully challenged at the convention by the likes of Peggy Nolan, he’ll get the 8-8.5K or so FG votes in Longford. He does the work on the ground, FG will be roughly where they were last time or a little further ahead, and that’ll be enough to see him through.

        The question is where the other 11K votes in Longford split. Sexton needs to be ahead of Kelly, and to manage it through force of personality rather than any visible organisation on the ground. Penrose’s surplus should help and that will be aided by the lack of any strong alternative candidate in the Mullingar end of Westmeath for transfers to leak to.

        Having said that, Sexton is unknown in most of Westmeath (she’d given up the ghost as far as canvassing was concerned before the last election and got derisory votes even in places on the Longford border) and an ex-PD may be hard for Labour voters to swallow. But if she does finish ahead of Kelly, then enough transfers will stay within the county to see her home. If she goes out before Kelly, then he should take the single FF seat on the same basis.

        (Incidentally, there won’t be many other Longford anti-Government transfers, SF having managed to implode in the county since the 80s.)

        The other question is whether Mammy stands again, and if so, is there only one FF candidate in Westmeath? If you were to ask me to make a guess at the moment it would be Penrose, Bannon, Sexton and a battle between McFadden and the Westmeath FFer for the last seat.

        Roscommon will be a dogfight. As well as Ming and John Kelly, there will probably be a hospital committee candidate concentrating on south Roscommon, a battle between Feighan and Naughton for FG, a SF candidate trying to appeal to Leitrim solidarity as well as Republicanism, and a battle between Finneran and a Leitrim FF candidate who will presumably have less personal baggage than John Ellis. I’d give FG a seat but after that, God alone knows.

        Paddy Matthews

        November 1, 2010 at 3:17 am

        • Paddy,

          Many thanks for that. the Longford situation is hard to judge from here in Dublin, and depressing as it is, it’s good to know the posn re Bannon – best not to have too many disappointments on election night, that’s what I always say!

          Agree that Roscommon also is likely to be a dogfight, with hard to call candidates who may or may not turn up on the day. Agree that FG1 is the only certainty, but my bones tell me FF1 is probable enough (if they lose out here, they are probably low 20s), leaving a seat either falling, on one side, to Kelly (whose never run for LP before), Ming (whose profile is higher than ever before) or SF (who in fairness are the lefties starting from the best posn), or Fg on the other side.

          I suspect that when we do our eve of poll predictions, for most of us this will be one that we spend some time mulling over…..

          Dotski

          November 2, 2010 at 12:15 am

  3. Hiya…no hope of two lab seats in galway west. The michael D vote is only part labour (the balance being the michael d factor), and on 2007 figures labour without michael d would have struggled to nail the fifth seat, notwithstanding labour genepool independents splitting the vote. Will take a good swing to hold 1 Labour seat. Two seats would take a monstrous swing.

    TonyB

    October 27, 2010 at 4:35 am

    • Hi TonyB,

      As I said, there’s caveats above for GalW, but LP are better placed there than you think even with him gone. As you said, his vote is comprised of LP votes and Michael D votes, let’s say 60% LP and 40% personal. Some of the “Michael D” votes will go to an alternative LP candidate if he’s not running (particularly if they have a choice of two candidates), lets say a quarter. That’s a base of 6.7% plus 1.1% = 7.8%. And as you say, there are LP gene-pool votes in the Indos, say most of Connolly’s vote (2.2% out of 3.64%) which were in part a reaction to him, and let’s not bother giving them any of Cox’s etc, giving LP around 10% had say Connolly been the LP candidate (for example). That’s pretty much their national average in 2007, and their national average is 27-35% now, depending on the polling company you believe. Now they may not pull a national average swing, but they should in any case be above 20-22% at least, and there are significant transfers available in the form of SF and GP (and Indos) that would be expected to be friendly to LP, so even without the Michael D effect, LP are in the running for 2 seats here, given FF with the current swing mst be losing at least one of their seats, FG2 fell a good bit short of here last time, and aside from Grealish, there’s really no-one else. So 1 FG and 1 LP certain, FF and Grealish would be most people’s ideas for favourites, and LP2 and FG2 fighting it out for the last seat, whichever company you believe.

      As you say, it would take a monstrous swing. But that’s exactly what the polls are saying will happen.

      Dotski

      October 28, 2010 at 2:32 pm

  4. […] […]

    Tommy returns

    October 27, 2010 at 11:47 pm

  5. dot,
    great stuff.

    If I were Labour I’d be hoping that there is now Lib Dem effect – high polls low vote because with multiple candidates they could really end up getting screwed.

    que

    October 27, 2010 at 11:48 pm

    • The prob the LibDems of course had was their electoral system, and many voters still tactically switched at the last moment, which isn’t required under our system. Also, it appears that if the polls are right, LP are unlikely to run too many candidates, and may instead run too few if the better polls are correct. They are also fortunate in that most of the LP votes won’t be personal votes, they’ll be based on Gilmore, and are therefore more likely to transfer among new LP candidates.

      So yes, they could of course lose votes, but if they do it’ll be for very different reasons to Clegg. What’ll really bouy them up is that pollsters are now starting to note high levels of number twos for LP also, which means that there’s greater stability in these figures thaan suspected by many, and a bigger seat bonus than they’ve had previously.

      If they lose votes, it won’t be tactical, it’ll be policy related, IMO

      Dotski

      October 28, 2010 at 2:52 pm

  6. FF to loose all seats in Galway-East, wow!
    Labour to possibly take seat makes it a “bell weather” constituency for Gilmore for top job. If LP take Galway East Gilmore will Make history.

    Mendoza

    October 28, 2010 at 4:17 pm

    • Yes, although I must admit that I think this could be somewhere they might buck the trend – it depends how much of Paddy McHugh’s vote is genuinely independent, and how much of it was FF-lite. If it was mainly the latter and he didn’t run, it’s possible that enough of it would return to the fold to elect them a single TD. It’s almost impossible to see them recover to two seats, however, which is in itself a mark of how low they’ve sunk in this poll.

      My gut feeling though is that they’ll recover to at mid-20s nationally by the time the election takes place, which would see them with at least one seat here, and an at least long shot for a second, unless LP hold up at mid-20s in which case they’ll probably not be catchable.

      Dotski

      October 28, 2010 at 4:57 pm

      • Keaveny is incredibly active on Galway. Labour have canvassed my house twice in the last 12 months. Second candidate essential here if they are to max out in constituency of it’s size. Gilmore is from this part of the world.

        Mendoza

        October 28, 2010 at 8:44 pm

  7. Have you read Drennan’s supplement on Irish Politics in today’s Sindo? Amusing for sure but not a huge amount of new analysis, for the seasoned hack at any rate.

    However his figures seem to be way off. He’s done a constituency roundup but unless he’s predicting an FF fight back, a ‘shy FF’ effect or something else (no methodology mentioned) his figures seem to be way off, or at least well out of synch with any recent polls or the per-constituency breakdowns of yourself and APKavanagh.

    James Lawless

    October 31, 2010 at 4:57 pm

    • Hi James,

      Alas, I was on the road today and haven’t seen the Sindo (don’t get it too often unless there’s something I’m after), I read something on p.ie about LP being on 50% in Dublin (?!) and tried to find it but couldn’t. There’s also something about a QR ‘poll’ that I can’t find either on the site. if you see a link could you let me know? (Ta!)

      Drennan can be fun, but not much more than that. If he was putting LP that high in Dublin, he was probably just doing a straight-line swing, which isn’t much use (you end up with 120% vote in one area and 85% elsewhere).

      d

      Dotski

      October 31, 2010 at 9:25 pm

  8. […] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Colm Maguire, Cormac Bohan. Cormac Bohan said: Interesting polling predictions https://irishpollingreport.wordpress.com/2010/10/26/redc-analysis-oct-2010/ […]

  9. […] most recent constituency-by-constituency analysis based on national […]

  10. Well done,great work.I think you might have FF a bit low in limerick city,the ODea factor should keep them a bit higher but they will only get one seat, at the moment Power would not reach 2000 fp votes.ODonnell also could suffer,not well known in the city.Leddin has a great chance if fp vote is reasonable he is the most transfer friendly and would do well with transfers from Power,Quinlivan sf Greens and any indos that may emerge

    ymmek

    November 14, 2010 at 11:39 pm

    • Cheers. Yes O’Dea could buck the trend to some extent, but don’t forget the relatively high base they are coming from also recognises that vote. Without it they would also have been lower in ’07 than they were and it’s that (boosted) higher vote they got with him that the projection is based upon (and the swing obviously). Either way, even if he does do better, I can’t see it pulling in a 2nd FF alright, unless they recover nationally (which is looking less likely at the mo….)

      Dotski

      November 17, 2010 at 1:07 am

  11. […] The most recent spreadsheet projection for RedC was posted on 26 October here […]


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