Irish Polling Report

A place to discuss Irish opinion polls

FG poll in DSE

with 9 comments

You probably know already if you’re a p.ie regular, but Dave has got his hands on the figures of a FG poll in Dublin SE, and the figures look pretty credible.

Chris Andrews Fianna Fail 18%
Lucinda Creighton Fine Gael 19%
John Gormley Green 8%
Kevin Humphreys Labour 10%
Eoghan Murphy Fine Gael 4%
Ruairi Quinn Labour 31%

Aside from the fact that he got hard figures from his (2 different) sources (respect!), they also very much tally with what the spreadsheet is suggesting here – the following figures are (a) the FG poll party totals, and (b) the average of the latest RedC and MRBI polls, projected by the spreadsheet to DSE;

FF 18% (16% – FG poll gives 2% higher)
FG 23% (20%- FG poll gives 3% higher)
LP 41% (43%- FG poll gives 2% lower)
GP 8% (9%- FG poll gives 1% lower)

That’s all the main players within the margin of error, and there’s no real conclusions to draw, other than LP are on course to win 2 seats, FG are certain of one (but only one), FF should hold one, and Gormley looks set to lose out, beating FG2 but losing the final seat to LP’s Kevin Humphries. Personally, I’d be lying if I pretended that I wasn’t gratified that it comes so close to the spreadsheet predictions, which along with FG and FF polls in Cork SC and Cork NW suggests that the formulae are working pretty well.

Of course, a lot can happen between now and polling day, but it would have to be a lot to upset this state of affairs.

Implications? Well, FF probably should be careful not to think about a running mate for Andrews – clearly if the FF vote is split, there could be significant leakage from FF2 to Gormley (who is a Govt Minister, after all) and see him pull off a Houdini act.

FG are safe enough with their two candidate strategy, given the weakness of Murphy in this poll, and so the only drawback of the two-candidate strategy would appear to be the disappointment on the day. They may consider running a high-profile outsider instead, but they are a full 18% behind LP here, and so their chances of catching them are so slight it would appear to be a waste of a good parachute (never a good idea).

LP, well they’ll feel that they’ve got it right. Over 2 quotas, but only barely, so 2 candidates are perfect. They should probably concentrate on splitting it better though (3/1 surprised me somewhat), as if they don’t and the LP vote declines over the course of the campaign, Gormley could slip in ahead of Humphries. On these figures, it would probably be wise to increase Humphries areas to make sure he doesn’t fall too far behind if there’s a swing against LP between now and polling day.

All assuming Mannix doesn’t run, of course….

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Written by Dotski

November 5, 2010 at 10:16 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

9 Responses

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  1. Does that uneven division of the Lab vote risk them only getting one seat?

    Tomboktu

    November 5, 2010 at 11:49 pm

    • not at this level of support, but if they were to slip to about 20% nationally, a lop-sided vote like this would see Humphries lose out, most likely to Gormley.

      Personally though I think that Quinn is starting off as by far the best known candidate, and over the course of a campaign Humphries would start to become better known among LP voters who wouldn’t necessarily have heard of/remember him. It wouldn’t necessarily increase the LP pile, but would be likely to increase his share of the LP vote

      Dotski

      November 6, 2010 at 12:13 am

      • I would presume that in some areas it will make sense to run a joint leaflet/canvass card for distribution where Quinn calls on his supporters to vote No.1 for Humphries in order to secure the 2nd seat.

        Daniel Sullivan

        November 9, 2010 at 3:17 pm

  2. I just can’t see how Eoghan Murphy is on 4%. There has to be something wrong with that. FG not taking a second seat here is bad news. The assumption would be that with McDowell gone, the PD vote will swing mainly back to FG giving almost two seats. I think this has happened but instead much of the FG vote has drifted to Labour leaving FG only a few points better than 2007.

    David Higgins

    November 6, 2010 at 12:31 am

    • Hi Dave,

      It’s hard to see where he’s going to get those votes – it’s a lot easier when its the LEs and there’s no big hitters (look at the LP ticket in that ward and how they did). Most ppl outside the political bubble are barely aware of him, and even those who are, well I’m not sure that there’s much about him that would change ppl’s minds too much about FG.

      Remember, FG were 18.65% here last time (and 16.06% the time before), and LP are gaining big time, so 23% is actually a good result for FG (nearly twice the swing they got last time). Sure, they are up a bit nationally, but that national swing includes ex-PDs, and if you try to add them to McDowell’s vote, you’re adding them twice. Even then, McDowell and FG in ’07 were well short of 2 seats, and FG now are about the same as FG and the PDs then, so you’re really hoping for something extra to pull a second seat, and I don’t see what it would be.

      It’s not impossible, but it would depend on a big national swing to FG that they’re not getting at the moment. At the end of the day, the local results will (largely) reflect the national swing, and this poll is just confirming that is happening in DSE.

      Dotski

      November 6, 2010 at 1:03 am

  3. […] of constituency polls in Dublin SE Donegal SW, Cork SC, Cork NW, and Dun […]

  4. […] a million miles from the recent FG poll here. FF are 5% lower, but other than that, FG are 1% higher, LP 2% lower and GP 1% lower. 2 LP and […]

  5. […] […]


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