FG poll in DSE

You probably know already if you’re a p.ie regular, but Dave has got his hands on the figures of a FG poll in Dublin SE, and the figures look pretty credible.

Chris Andrews Fianna Fail 18%
Lucinda Creighton Fine Gael 19%
John Gormley Green 8%
Kevin Humphreys Labour 10%
Eoghan Murphy Fine Gael 4%
Ruairi Quinn Labour 31%

Aside from the fact that he got hard figures from his (2 different) sources (respect!), they also very much tally with what the spreadsheet is suggesting here – the following figures are (a) the FG poll party totals, and (b) the average of the latest RedC and MRBI polls, projected by the spreadsheet to DSE;

FF 18% (16% – FG poll gives 2% higher)
FG 23% (20%- FG poll gives 3% higher)
LP 41% (43%- FG poll gives 2% lower)
GP 8% (9%- FG poll gives 1% lower)

That’s all the main players within the margin of error, and there’s no real conclusions to draw, other than LP are on course to win 2 seats, FG are certain of one (but only one), FF should hold one, and Gormley looks set to lose out, beating FG2 but losing the final seat to LP’s Kevin Humphries. Personally, I’d be lying if I pretended that I wasn’t gratified that it comes so close to the spreadsheet predictions, which along with FG and FF polls in Cork SC and Cork NW suggests that the formulae are working pretty well.

Of course, a lot can happen between now and polling day, but it would have to be a lot to upset this state of affairs.

Implications? Well, FF probably should be careful not to think about a running mate for Andrews – clearly if the FF vote is split, there could be significant leakage from FF2 to Gormley (who is a Govt Minister, after all) and see him pull off a Houdini act.

FG are safe enough with their two candidate strategy, given the weakness of Murphy in this poll, and so the only drawback of the two-candidate strategy would appear to be the disappointment on the day. They may consider running a high-profile outsider instead, but they are a full 18% behind LP here, and so their chances of catching them are so slight it would appear to be a waste of a good parachute (never a good idea).

LP, well they’ll feel that they’ve got it right. Over 2 quotas, but only barely, so 2 candidates are perfect. They should probably concentrate on splitting it better though (3/1 surprised me somewhat), as if they don’t and the LP vote declines over the course of the campaign, Gormley could slip in ahead of Humphries. On these figures, it would probably be wise to increase Humphries areas to make sure he doesn’t fall too far behind if there’s a swing against LP between now and polling day.

All assuming Mannix doesn’t run, of course….