RedC Shock Poll – Hardly anything changes!

Spotty over on politics.ie has released the latest RedC offerings in tomorrow’s SBP. They are surprising, in that there’s no movement for anyone outside the margin of error.

The figures are;

FF 17% (-1)
FG 33% (+1)
LP 27% (nc)
SF 11% (+2)
GP 3% (-1)
OTH 8% (-2)

I’ve run these through the spreadsheet, and it produces the following figures (movement from last month’s RedC in brackets);

FG 61 (no change)
LP 55 (-2)
FF 26 (-1)
SF 14 (+7)
GP 1 (-2)
OTH 9 (-2)

RedC as you know tend to be good for FG, and they’d remain ahead on these figures, so they’ll be somewhat happy, although I’d have thought that both they and LP would have expected to make good gains this week as the shadow of the IMF loomed (although the actual landing occurred after the sampling on Monday and Tuesday this week). The biggest gain is clearly SF, who on these figures would pass the threshold in a number of constituencies, and would be in ‘proper party’ territory (in both sense of the word). Presumably this is a positive reaction to the announcement that their leader will contest the next GE.

I’ll do a more in depth analysis after the figures are confirmed, probably tomorrow when I’ve had a good look at the other findings.