Irish Polling Report

A place to discuss Irish opinion polls

RedC Shock Poll – Hardly anything changes!

with 6 comments

Spotty over on has released the latest RedC offerings in tomorrow’s SBP. They are surprising, in that there’s no movement for anyone outside the margin of error.

The figures are;

FF 17% (-1)
FG 33% (+1)
LP 27% (nc)
SF 11% (+2)
GP 3% (-1)
OTH 8% (-2)

I’ve run these through the spreadsheet, and it produces the following figures (movement from last month’s RedC in brackets);

FG 61 (no change)
LP 55 (-2)
FF 26 (-1)
SF 14 (+7)
GP 1 (-2)
OTH 9 (-2)

RedC as you know tend to be good for FG, and they’d remain ahead on these figures, so they’ll be somewhat happy, although I’d have thought that both they and LP would have expected to make good gains this week as the shadow of the IMF loomed (although the actual landing occurred after the sampling on Monday and Tuesday this week). The biggest gain is clearly SF, who on these figures would pass the threshold in a number of constituencies, and would be in ‘proper party’ territory (in both sense of the word). Presumably this is a positive reaction to the announcement that their leader will contest the next GE.

I’ll do a more in depth analysis after the figures are confirmed, probably tomorrow when I’ve had a good look at the other findings.

Written by Dotski

November 20, 2010 at 5:46 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

6 Responses

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  1. […] […]

  2. I think the announcement of Gerry to run in Louth is an element to the strong showing but only so in tandem with the Pearse D campaign and the very strong credible alternative to the cut baby cuts consensus approach tied in with them continuing to cmpaign hard on the ground.

    There are several elements but all centered around SF really getting their focus together for the next election.


    November 20, 2010 at 5:56 pm

    • Hi Que,

      Yes, I’d agree that the Adams announcement and Doherty’s performance in DSW are significant. There’s a number of these gains which are very narrow (as you might guess, given a 2% increase in the FPV would see a 7 seat gain), but that’s in the nature of elections.

      I’m not sure though that they’re in a place yet where they can be confident of making these gains, though. Given how many of them depend on a move within the margin of error, they need a few more polls like this before they start counting them chickens.

      Its a good start for them, though, and if I was a SF member tonight I’d be in a good place…


      November 20, 2010 at 8:34 pm

  3. Labour must be disappointed that Gilmore’s “job interview” with Ryan Tubridy on RTÉ’s Late Late Show didn’t garner any extra support.


    November 21, 2010 at 12:25 pm

    • I suspect that they gained some support, but lost some to SF over the past week due to the Adams and DSW stories. I’ve not got the paper yet, but I’ll be interested to see if there’s any further details that will illustrate what’s happening under the surface.

      Needless to say, if anyone has it already and has any interesting snippets, feel free to share!


      November 21, 2010 at 12:48 pm

  4. […] on Irish Polling Report, having crunched the numbers, suggested the following […]

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