Guns and Roses
It’s being reported in p.ie Twitter, and on Matt Cooper’s radio show that a RedC poll for the Sun is reporting a big jump in SF and Indo support, with FF slipping into 4th place.
According to the figures quoted, the parties are as follows;
FF 13%
FG 32%
LP 24%
SF 16%
GP 3%
OTH 11%
The word is that choice of Taoiseach is 42% for Gilmore, and 8% for Cowen.
Now, while it’s still a rumour as I type, it appears to be kosher. I ran this through the spreadsheet and got the following figures;
FG 62
LP 47
SF 26
FF 14
GP 2
OTH 15 (at least 8 of whom would be unambiguously left-wing)
Not got the time to do further analysis of that right now, but will do something later when the figures are confirmed.
Constituency analysis at https://irishpollingreport.wordpress.com/2010/12/03/231/
Irish Polling Report 
Lab/SF/ULA anyone?
RepublicanSocialist1798
December 2, 2010 at 8:32 pm
If the figures added up I could see LP/SF – the Shinners economic policy is a bit on the ‘aspirational’ side in terms of growth etc, but the evidence from the 6 cos suggests that they are pragmatic enough when push comes to shove (assuming they’d not rather be in opposition for the 4-year plan then come in afterwards). I could see a Prog for Govt being negotiated.
Hard to see someone like Joe Higgins wielding executive power though…. and I say that as someone who quite likes him. It’s not like the French PS/PCF coalition under Mitterand, Communists are, IMO, more pragmatic (at least they were then). RBB is bright in some ways, but he’d either flop badly, or sell out spectacularly. And as for Healy…..
Also if this becomes more likely, there’ll be a media onslaught which would see a lot of LP vote drift to FG, making Inda a shoo-in for Taoiseach, leaving Gilmore with the choice of being his junior partner, or allowing FF in with them to create the most dangerously right-wing govt in the history of the state, at a time when ppl are most vulnerable to it.
So yes, in some ways this poll is exciting from a l/w perspective, but it carries it’s dangers too…
Dotski
December 2, 2010 at 9:17 pm
Nothing like a red scare campaign.
True what you said about Higgins. Can’t see RBB getting in Dun Laoghaire (it’s a fairly competitive constituency) and Healey could probably be bought off with a Gregory deal. FF/FG would last little more than a few years and would probably put an end to the right wing in this country.
RepublicanSocialist1798
December 2, 2010 at 9:54 pm
Normally I have him losing out, but on these figures FF lose the seat I usually give them, and RBB gets in on increased SF transfers.
While I agree about the political possibilities of FF/FG coalition for the left (although I think it’d just destroy one of them) I do have real fears about the long term damage such a govt could do, particularly at a time of such scarcity. 5-10 years ago it might have been grand, and the left could have come in and built something really good afterwards, but now with a downward economic spiral, there are families I think who could really slip under critical thresholds if such a govt did the things I fear it could…
Dotski
December 2, 2010 at 10:33 pm
Agree with you. It’d be an absolute hell.
RepublicanSocialist1798
December 2, 2010 at 10:59 pm
dotski, you want to talk aspirational growth figures then look no further than the Govt. projections
que
December 2, 2010 at 11:48 pm
well aware of that Que – I just don’t expect Gilmore to be negotiating a programme for govt with FF! 😉
Dotski
December 3, 2010 at 12:08 am
Amazing figures – it’s not often that you’ll see the tribal vote eroding, and this, at long last, is it. And the budget hasn’t even been passed yet… that, and the expected exodus of Pension-Snatchers from Cabinet is yet to start. One might expect such announcements to be made over the Xmas hols (all the better to minimiise the PR).
Assuming that something approximate to these figures holds up, and we don’t suffer the dreaded “shy tory” effect (the 20% in Donegal suggests that it’s not materialising) then FF may even slide into FIFTH place behind SP/PBP/INDS/GRN forming some sort of technical group.
Oh, the joy! My old dad will be a very happy man that day.
Which suggests that with FF effectively gelded as a future government party, the next Dail and the next election would become even stranger. With an FG/Lab government handed the ugliest mess in – ever? – what are their chances of turning things around? If they fail, then one could expect the opposition – which would be SF and the assorted Left to clean up in 2016 (or whenever).
Looking forward to GE 2011. Fingers crossed. It’s now or never to finally consign the bogmen back to the bog from whence they crawled.
dermotmoconnor
December 2, 2010 at 9:11 pm
Good point about the budget not even passed yet. Perversely FF’s apparent determination to hang on to Feb/March would see the polling happen after the tax increase take effect.
As I say though, the rise in SF and OTH faces Gilmore with some difficult decisions to make ….. the alternative budgets will be important, methinks….
Dotski
December 2, 2010 at 9:20 pm
[…] […]
Red C Poll in Tomorrow's Sun? - Page 34
December 2, 2010 at 9:23 pm
I can’t wrap my head around the FF desire to hang in. Even now, it’s just making things worse! It seems they really believe their own humbug about turning the corner, going forward……..etc….
Had they called a snap election in 2009/10, they’d be safe and sound in opposition, ~50 seats, blaming the other lot for the mess we’re in with the IMF.
Not complaining. “Thank God, our enemies are stupid”, to quote the Iranian Presidente.
dermotmoconnor
December 2, 2010 at 9:40 pm
Question – I haven’t seen this mentioned (maybe it has, but):
Is there data on those who are “likely to vote”, or is this built into the poll numbers? We all know of the “Me Mammy and Me Daddy voted FF so I do to” zombie horde – so the great hope is that they’ll be so apathetic that they’ll stay home on election day (especially if it’s cold or rainy).
Do the polls model that?
dermotmoconnor
December 2, 2010 at 11:46 pm
yep, RedC ask on a scale of 1-10 and exclude those rated 1-4
Dotski
December 3, 2010 at 12:07 am
If these figures were replicated in a Feb, 2011 GE, who would the FF Tds in the next Dail be ?
Warren Poynt
December 3, 2010 at 2:27 am
Kirk, Cowen, O’Dea, O’Donoghue, O’Cuiv, Killeen (to be fair to him he’s an honest chap), McGuinness, Browne, Kitt and probably Alyward.
RepublicanSocialist1798
December 3, 2010 at 6:52 pm
No. He/his spreadsheet os predicting Ó Ciuv to lose..
Tomboktu
December 4, 2010 at 12:52 pm
[…] […]
Lab/SF government anyone?
December 3, 2010 at 1:22 pm