December Sun

Well that was quite a poll…

The RedC/Irish Sun poll figures have been confirmed, and they do indeed show a marked swing away from FF, and to a lesser degree LP and FG (both within the margin of error) towards SF and INDs. To recap, with my seat projections from yesterday;

FG 32% (-1) – 62 seats
LP 24% (-3) – 47 seats
SF 16% (+5) – 26 seats
FF 13% (-4) – 14 seats (including CC, but not including Mattie McGrath)
GP 3% (n/c) – 2 seats
OTH 11% (+3) – 15 seats (including MMG)

(NB more details further down the post)

On choice of Taoiseach, there’s continued movement towards Gilmore of 2%, and away from Cowen, with Kenny also getting a small lift;

Gilmore 41%
Kenny 25%
Cowen 8%

This indicates I think that while there’s a large body of opinion out there that want Gilmore to lead the next Govt, a significant wodge of that wouldn’t like them to prop up FG, and want an ‘angrier’ reaction to recent events.

It creates a dilemma for Gilmore, as moving too much to the left will alienate a lot of his recently won support (and make governing afterwards harder, having raised unrealistic expectations). It would also raise the spectre of a Guns and Roses LP/SF coalition, and the media onslaught that would unleash.

But ignoring this drift risks seeing him drop lower in the poll. Currently its margin of error stuff, and the combined effect of the Bearded One’s entrance in Louth and the DSW by-election was always likely to see a surge in SF support this month. But there’s a lot of very angry people out there, and while they may fall back somewhat from this rating, I don’t foresee SF going south of 10% any time soon, if at all, and they may even edge up a point or two after the budget.

Gilmore’s greatest trump is that, despite the personalised onslaught by the Indo group against him and his wife, people want him to be Taoiseach in increasing numbers. His greatest drawback is that his supporters fear he’ll put someone else in that they don’t trust. In the course of an election campaign, a significant number of voters drift to the party of their preferred Taoiseach, and in most elections (bar ’92) LP have not been considered part of that equation, to their detriment. This is an election where Gilmore will have to persuade voters that if they want him to be Taoiseach, they need to vote for his candidates, not just in Dublin Central and Wexford, but in places like Roscommon, Meath West and Cavan. If not, they’re more likely to be electing an opposition instead.

FF and Cowen … well, where to start? 13% will represent for some a “new” core vote, but for me it just supports my contention that there’s no such thing. They could recover, but unless the forthcoming Budget involves some sort of magic money machine, or perhaps a time travel device, I suspect that they aren’t going to make major inroads. They may recover by election time by enough to catch SF, but the only way they’ve even an outside chance to be in Govt is as a very minor partner for FG, should this be deemed “in the national interest” by the great and the good.

FG will be unsure how to read this. FF are collapsing and LP are down, but so are they. The fact that the movement is towards parties to the left of LP will be worrying for them, and they’ll be nervously gauging LP’s intentions. They could go hell for leather and accuse LP as potential SF partners in govt, but that would risk alienating the only potential coalition partners they’ll admit to before the election (although afterwards they may consider FF or SF if the figures added up).

SF will of course be cock-a-hoop at this polling (and I suspect my projections). However, there’s a GE campaign to go, and they’d be advised not to lose the head just yet. A lot of this vote is clearly quite fluid, and if a week is a long time in politics, three months are an eternity. But its going as well for them as they could have hoped for, and these figures would see them well placed to be competing with FF to be the largest opposition party in the Dáil, and possibly looking at them as coalition partners in 2016.

The Greens …. Well they strike me as looking for release into the wild at this stage. On these figures, they would remarkably hold on to 2 seats – one in the form of Sargant, but the other, surprisingly, in the form of John Gormley, who would slip ahead of Chris Andrews and get enough transfers from him to stay ahead of SF.

And OTHs…. Always very hard to work out what’s happening with them, but I suspect that the launch of the United Left Alliance (or “Tanks and Trots”) this week has given a wee fillip for this column, again reflecting anger more than a desire for a new govt, I suspect.

Anyway, the projections…

Carlow-Kilkenny
FF 23% (1)
FG 38% (2)
LP 19% (1)
SF 13% (1)
GP 7%

FF lose 2 seats and GP 1, with FG, LP and SF all gaining.

Cavan-Monaghan
FF 14% (1)
FG 34% (2)
LP 6%
SF 37% (2)
Ind 6%

Here, an ‘Adams avalanche’ of this scale would outdo a Gilmore Gale, with SF2 taking one FF seat, and FG’s Joe O’Reilly taking the other FF seat. FF’s Brendan Smith hangs on from LP’s Des Cullen, who himself barely squeezes ahead of FG3 on Indo transfers.

Clare
FF 20% (1)
FG 43% (2)
LP 8%
SF 12%
GP 4%
Oth 14% (1)

FF lose a seat, most likely to their gene-pool independent and ex-TD Breen, although SF (and LP if they get a good candidate) would also be in the mix. Dooley, rather than Kileen, would appear more likely to hold on.

Cork E
FF 14.3%
FG 32.8% (1)
LP 36.4% (2)
SF 14.2% (1)
GP 2%

FF lose both seats, to LP2 and SF.

Cork NC
FF 4% (yes, yes, I know…)
FG 32% (2)
LP 25% (1)
SF 17.5% (1)
Oth 20%

SF take a seat from FF, but a fractured left sees FG2 stay ahead of LP2, unless Lynch and Gilroy split their vote reasonably well. FF’s Noel O’Flynn will hope that his protests of independence may save him, and I suspect they’ll pull up his first preferences, but that he’ll still be too far behind for it to make any difference to the final result. Also losing out here would be Billy Kelleher, who would have expected to be a leading member of the FF front bench next time out. SP also lose out, but that’s hard to call as they are in “OTH” and if the swing to them is disproportionately for left-wingers, he could pull it off.

Cork NW
FF 26.5% (1)
FG 48.4% (2)
LP 16.6%
SF 5.7%
GP 2.8%

While there are transfers here for LP, they are too far behind FG2 to reel them in.

Cork SC
FF 10% (1)
FG 38% (2)
LP 25% (1)
SF 14% (1)
GP 3%

SF’s Chris O’Leary takes a seat, with LP’s Paula Desmond just losing out to FF’s Michail Martin by a handful of votes. Very close though, and could go either way. However, Martin could be leader by the next election, which would make him safe.

Cork SW
FF 18%
FG 41.5% (2)
LP 23% (1)
SF 13%
GP 5%

LP take a seat, and FG2 holds off FF and SF for the 3rd seat.

Donegal NE
FF 23% (1)
FG 27% (1)
LP 11%
SF 31% (1)

Straightforward gain for SF from FF, who hold their single seat with less than a quota. They had 3/3 here when Blaney defected from IFF….

Donegal SW
FF 17%
FG 24% (1)
LP 11%
SF 37% (2)
OTH 10%

On these figures, the combined SF/LP/Pringle vote would hold up to the approx 60% they got in the by-election, and if SF ran a running mate for Doherty, s/he would most likely stay ahead of McBrearty, and with transfers from Pringle and the LP man, take the final seat from FF. Even if SF ran a single candidate, FF would still most likely lose out, with the battle being between McBreaty and Pringle, given most SF transfers would go their way, but at present I’m giving it to SF2.

Dublin C
FF 6% (assuming HE isn’t running…)
FG 14%
LP 32% (2)
SF 18% (1)
GP 3%
OTH 26% (1)

Donoghue makes it a hatrick of ‘surprise’ defeats, with Mary-Lou getting in, and LP’s Aine Clancy beating the FG man by doing better from transfers from Cieran Perry and FF’s Mary FitzPatrick. Perry though is a dark horse, and if you’re offered good odds against him, you should consider them. And if MOS doesn’t run (as has been suggested) he’s very likely to pull it off.

Dub MW
FF 7%
FG 23% (1)
LP 32.4% (2)
SF 19% (1)
GP 7%

FF lose a seat to LP, PDs lose a seat to FG, and GP lose a seat to SF. Not a happy prospect for the Govt, but at least they’d be sharing the pain equally…..

Dub N
FF 9%
FG 21% (1)
LP 27% (1)
SF 10%
GP 11.4% (1)
SP/ULA 13% (1)

FF lose 2 seats, to LP and Clare Daly. SF also in the mix, and I have Sargant holding on, largely on FF transfers. LP would be well placed if they had a well balanced ticket and split the vote well, but at this stage we’re still none the wiser who will be Ryan’s running mate, and so I don’t see them getting their act together in time for the election. Daly is however vulnerable to SF, as a lot of their natural votes may have gone to her in the past, as they were considered no-hopers before, and some of these may return.

Dub NC
FF 10%
FG 31% (1)
LP 24% (1)
SF 13%
GP 3%
OTH 19% (1)

The Haughey dynasty falls, with LP’s Aodhan O’Riordan taking a seat, and Finian McGrath holding on against a SF challenge.

Dub NE
FF 7%
FG 26% (1)
LP 36% (1)
SF 23% (1)
GP 3%

SF nip in and take the last seat from LP2, who have been taking this in most polls. FF not even at the races, FG appear safe for 1 seat.

Dub NW
FF 11%
FG 12%
LP 41% (2)
SF 27% (1)

FF lose both seats, “The Brother” and Minister Carey. LP take one and SF the other. FG not well enough placed to come close.

Dub S
FF 10% (1)
FG 36% (2)
LP 32% (2)
SF 10%
GP 7.5%

FF will run without an outgoing TD, following the death of Seamus Brennan and the confirmed retirement of Tom Kitt. I still see them just about holding on here, as I believe that GP transfers will put them ahead of SF, but that’s based on the assumption of a 2-candidate LP ticket. A White/Culhane/McCarthy ticket would put the cat among the pigeons, mind…. If they split 14/10/8 (not unreasonable) LP3 would be ahead of Ryan, and would be well placed to over take SF on GP transfers. Probably not going to happen, but still….

Dub SC
FF 4% (yes, yes…)
FG 18% (1)
LP 38.4% (3)
SF 18% (1)
GP 3%
ULA 11%

Collapse in FF vote here. I have LP vote splitting 15% Byrne, 13% Hupton and 10.4% Conaghan, with LP3 reeling in ULA’s Joan Collins on FF and GP transfers (FG and SF transfers cancelling out their respective preferences for LP and ULA). Very very close though, and Collins could definitely sneak it, particularly if LP vote is more skewed. FG2 and FF1 are not in the mix.

Dub SE
FF 11%
FG 24% (1)
LP 35% (2)
SF 10.0%
GP 9.4% (1)

Somewhat controversially (I suspect!) I see Gormely creeping ahead of SF on IND transfers, then getting enough from SF to overtake FF, and then be elected on Chris Andrews transfers. Less controversially, 2 LP and 1 FG.

Dub SW
FF 6%
FG 23% (1)
LP 33.4% (2)
SF 24.8% (1)

No surprise here but LP’s Eamonn Maloney gets elected on SF surplus.

Dub W
FF 11%
FG 18% (1)
LP 40% (2)
SF 11%
SP 20% (1)

If the tide’s out, it’s out. Brian Lenihen, even with an upward adjustment, would lose his seat to veteran trotskyist, Joe “M.E.P.” Higgins. LP pick up the additional seat from the revision, but the identity is unclear. I understood that a convention was likely to select Burton and Nulty, but now hear that only 1 candidate will be selected by convention, with a possible addition by Head Office. Possibly this is to add someone more amenable than Nulty, which suggests that HQ knows the fight for the last seat will be with Lenihen, rather than Higgins.

D/Laoghaire
FF 13%
FG 28% (1)
LP 35% (2)
SF 7%
GP 4.5%
ULA 13% (1)

Drops a seat, and 3 ministers, with Mary Hanafin, Barry Andews and Ciaran Cuffe all facing marching orders. On these figures, Bacik and Boyd-Barrett should both be ahead of FG2 after SF/GP transfers (and Gilmore’s surplus), and already edging ahead of FF1 (after the elimination of FF2).

Galway E
FF 12%
FG 50% (2)
LP 14% (1)
SF 10%
OTH 13% (1)

FF lose both their seats, one to LP and the other (just about) to FF gene-pool Indo McHugh. FG hold both seats, despite 2 retirements, one presumably going to ex-PD leader Ciaran Cannon. SF in line to poll well, but are likely to fall short, unless McHugh underperforms the swing to OTH (quite possible if this is a swing to left-wing parties).

Galway W
FF 7% (really!)
FG 26% (2)
LP 24% (1)
SF 10%
GP 3%
OTH 31% (2)

Well, hard to see, but if FF are at a third of their ’07 polling, this would appear to be the outcome here… I’d not write them off, but they are very much up against it. They may of course be holding on better here if there’s a different swing in the Gaeltacht (there often is) but if that’s the case and they are still 13% nationally, that means they are lower still elsewhere….

On these figures FF lose both seats, FG2 takes one of them, and the other is won by left-wing Indo Catherine Connolly. New LP candidate Derek Nolan would hold onto Michael D’s seat, and Noel Grealish would hang on. Again, SF not a million miles off, and they could be fighting it out with Connolly for that last seat, but I have her beating them on LP transfers.

Kerry N
FF 12%
FG 34% (1)
LP 16% (1)
SF 35% (1)

FF suffer a relative collapse, although at about their national average, you could argue its a substantial improvement on ’07 ….. The Spring Dynasty returns, although Arthur, one suspects, won’t reach the heights of the Uncle. FG and SF are safe as a safe house.

Kerry S
FF 16%
FG 29% (1)
LP 22% (1)
IND 20% (1)
SF 11%

FF’s JOD loses out to the Gilmore Gale in this instance, with the younger Healy-Rae also taking a seat. LP have yet to select a candidate though, and if SF choose Toireasa Ferris as mooted on p.ie by some posters, the last 2 seats will be keenly contested. FG seat is very safe.

Kildare N
FF 6%
FG 27% (1)
LP 36% (2)
SF 9%
OTH 20% (1)

FF appear set to see a collapse in their vote here. I would caution that the swing might not be as big here, as I’ve a gut feeling that workers in some multinationals around here may be less tempted by the left-wing offerings, but it’s hard to see it stopping LP2 and Murphy (IND) joining Stagg and Durkan (if he runs).

Kildare S
FF 25% (1)
FG 25% (1)
LP 36% (1)
SF 6%
GP 5%

FG gain from FF. In other circumstances the LP/left vote could deliver a 2nd seat, but not with the figures falling in that pattern. No danger in running a LP2 though, despite the reluctance of Jack Wall, who reputedly would rather bequeath the seat, which might be complicated by another Lp cllr getting a run out this time….

Laois-Offaly
FF 33% (2) – and that’s with a leaders bonus added….
FG 37% (2)
LP 10.3%
SF 16.4% (1)

SF gain the 3rd FF seat. Much talk that LP are going to impose former Leinster Leader editor, Laois based John Whelan ahead of several local cllrs (all apparently called O’Brien, for some reason…) provoking a local split, but this projection suggests that without a game-changing move (such as that) they’d lose out to SF on current polling.

Limerick City
FF 12%
FG 33% (1)
LP 35% (2)
SF 12.3% (1)

On these figures the swing and the revision of the constituency (dropping a seat) would see FF lose 2 seats, one to LP and the other to SF’s Maurice Quinlivan, who has a well documented record of tormenting Willie O’Dea. FG would also most likely lose a seat, probably Kieran O’Donnell who loses a lot of his area in the revision, although a decent FF-to-FG transfer when O’Dea is eliminated might save him at the expense of SF.

Limerick County
FF 21%
FG 49% (2)
LP 22% (1)
SF 5%

Always been an odd one, this. The PD’s took a seat in ’87 (leaving FG with none), FG took 2 seats in ’97 as a result of Indo FFers running, and on this occasion it looks like FF could lose a seat each to FG and LP’s Jim Heffernan. A very modest FF recovery would see them hold one seat however, most likely at LP’s expense.

Longford-Westmeath
FF 17% (1)
FG 34.6% (1)
LP 36.2% (2)
SF 10.5%

FF lose a seat to LP who have high hopes for former PD intellectual Mae Sexton 😉 Still, in fairness, her main local competition is “Bonkers” Bannon….. FG2 and SF may be competitive, but appear too far behind, and as long as Sexton stays ahead of one, is likely to get sufficient transfers from the other (and from Penrose, of course)

Louth
FF 6%
FG 34.9% (2)
LP 15.1% (1)
SF 31.8% (1)
GP 4.5%

FF collapse (that Dermot Ahern is very canny, isn’t he…?) SF would probably have too lob-sided a vote to take 2 seats here (I’ve given them a big leaders bonus) and I’d see FG taking a second seat, assuming they persuade MMcG (Mairead, not Martin) to run.

Nash should take a seat for LP, but on these figures I’d be cautious about their consideration (reportedly) of a Dundalk sweeper…)

Mayo
FF 16% (1)
FG 57% (3)
LP 9%
SF 14% (1)

On these figures, the Adams Avalance would push SF ahead of LP’s Jerry Cowley. Either way, one of htem takes a seat from FF, most likely Calleary.

Meath E
FF 9%
FG 33% (2)
LP 29% (1)
SF 11%

FF lose 2 seats, one each to LP and FG. LP would be in the running for a second with SF and Indo transfers, but I’m informed that they’ll not run a second candidate, so it’ll be Hannigan, with his transfers electing FG (unless SF do very well in Indo, FF and LP transfers)

Meath W
FF 14%
FG 37% (1)
LP 16% (1)
SF 25% (1)

FF lose 2 seats (including Noel Dempsey) both to the left, SF on a quota and LP edging ahead of FG2 on FF transfers (FG needing about twice as many of them to keep both their candidates ahead).

Roscommon – S Leitrim
FF 15%
FG 45% (2)
LP 13%
SF 20% (1)
OTH 6%

Well, this would be a turn up for the books …. FF wer already down to 1 seat in this 3-seater, but on this poll, they’d lose that one also. FG would hold the 2 seats, but it would be SF, rather than LP’s John Kelly who would take the seat. Both would be close enough, and Ming Flanagan couldn’t be ruled out, but with 39% between them, it would appear fairly certain that one of the 3 seats should go outside the FF/FG fold. On these figures, Flanagan would be eliminated first, putting Kelly ahead of FF1, but SF would appear most likely to be too far ahead for Kelly to pull him in. It would be a surprise, but Martin Kelly polled comfortably ahead of SF’s national rating last time. However, he was one of the few Leitrim candidates and a fair bit of his vote may come from that, and it may be that the Adams avalanche will not necessarily lift that boat to the same degree, in which case Kelly may catch him.

But one to watch…

Sligo N Leitrim
FF 15%
FG 45% (2)
LP 12%
SF 25% (1)

Similar to Roscommon, although this time FF lose one each to FG and SF. Here SF are on safer ground, as their candidate is Sligo based and so there is no esoteric ‘Leitrim’ basis for the base vote. O’Keefe would appear to be struggling unless she makes significant inroads into the FG vote, which appears to be an uphill battle. Wild card could be Declan Bree, who is rumoured to be considering a comeback under the ULA banner.

Let’s hope there’s no discussions about Stalin at the selection convention… 😉

Tipp Nth
FF 12%
FG 21% (1)
LP 17% (1)
Lowry 32% (1)
SF 11%

FF lose their only seat to LP’s Kelly. Lowry safe as an entire housing estate….

Tipp Sth
FF 14%
FG 26% (1)
LP 17%
IND 32% (2)
SF 11%

Mattie takes an Indo seat that will magically transform itself to FF after the election, and Manseragh lose his seat to Healy. LP falls short, McGrath’s gambit paying off. No real space for SF as the combination of Indo FF, ULA and mainstream LP just doesn’t leave enough left for them (11% is no disgrace though…)

Waterford
FF 10%
FG 34.5% (2)
LP 26% (1)
SF 16% (1)

This is a constituency where Lp have announced that they’ll only be running one candidate, and a SF surge means that they might not be missing out as a result. Although, had they persuaded Gilligan to jump aboard, it would have been much more interesting. SF gain a seat, as do FG at the expense of FF who would have been weakened anyway by Cullen’s retirement.

Wexford
FF 18% (1)
FG 38% (2)
LP 24% (1)
SF 15% (1)

FF lose a seat, but its to SF rather than LP. This is despite an adjustment for the SF candidate jumping ship and joining ULA.

Wicklow
FF 7%
FG 32% (2)
LP 25% (1)
SF 15% (1)
GP 5%
OTH 17% (1)

FF collapse, Behan holds his FF seat as an Indo, and Roche loses his to SF. LP fall just short of a second seat as a result, but if Behan doesn’t stand (as rumoured) they would take the seat.