Budget Blues
The latest MRBI poll has broken in politics.ie with the first figures following the recent Budget. The figures (last MRBI in brackets) are
FF 17% (-7)
FG 30% (+6)
Lab 25% (-8)
SF 15% (+7)
GP 2% (n/c)
Ind 11% (+2)
Satisfaction with party leaders is recorded as follows;
Cowen 14% (-5)
Kenny 23% (-2)
Gilmore 44% (-5)
The previous MRBI was after the FG pairings fiasco, and this one is following a Budget debate where the general consensus is that Noonan performed best of the Finance spokespersons, so no great surprise in the apparent movment from LP to FG, although some may be to SF and OTH (with the launch of ULA).
I’ve run it through the spreadsheet and get the following projections;
FF 25
FG 58
LP 48
SF 23
GP 0
OTH 12 (at least 6 of which would be described as leftwing)
I’ll do something more comprehensive in the next day or so with constituency breakdowns
Irish Polling Report 
[…] […]
Irish Times Poll - Page 13
December 15, 2010 at 10:27 pm
Wish there were two more seats for SF so they could deliver the final coup de grâce for Zanu FF.
RepublicanSocialist1798
December 15, 2010 at 11:14 pm
Looks neck and neck, although they’ll need to have a strong campaign to deliver on it. I can see a FF recovery of sorts – can’t see them catching LP at this stage as they’ve been too far behind them too long, but my gut says they’ll pull ahead of SF (although the shinners should still do very well). I’m also already factoring in SF being more transfer friendly, and doing well on LP transfers.
I suppose ultimately its hard to see FF as being far above their floor, whereas this is new territory for SF.
Still, it is still possible that they could pip them, which would be remarkable to say the least.
Dotski
December 15, 2010 at 11:20 pm
“Zanu FF”
Brilliant 🙂
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December 16, 2010 at 1:48 pm
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December 16, 2010 at 3:30 pm
They reported the decided vote figure in this poll in addition to the core vote (not sure if they did this before) so I cranked out a further breakdown. I presumed the 34% undecided was a misprint and it should be 36%
OK, the numbers get silly when they get this small and the core vote is rounded, further adding to the inaccuracy, but I think the exercise does throw up a couple of points…
Party Decided Core Leaning Leaning/Core
FG 20.48 23 2.52 10.96%
Lab 13.44 18 4.56 25.33%
FF 12.16 13 0.84 6.46%
SF 10.88 11 0.12 1.09%
Grn 0.64 1 0.36 36.00%
Oth 6.40 9 2.60 28.89%
Und 36.00 25
First, of the top 4, Labour has the softest vote by a wide margin, (or has won the most floaters, depending on the spin), and could finish anywhere from 1st to 4th in percentage of the vote by attracting or losing floating votes.
Second, people generally don’t lean SF. Once a voter opts for them, they are committed. Thats kinda what I’d expect given their Lemass style “slightly constitutional party” status and that they’re on the way up. I’m curious to see if that remains true. I’d also love to know if its true in the North.
Lastly, there is still, despite everything, a bit of play in the FF support.
Nothing earth shattering, in fact the only thing I wasn’t expecting was the FF lean, which I’m putting down to the budget.
Still, interesting to see assumptions confirmed in the figures.
nevillebagnall
December 16, 2010 at 11:04 pm