Irish Polling Report

A place to discuss Irish opinion polls

Noonan for Taoiseach?

with 17 comments

Well, I’ve recovered from my hangover and run the spreadsheet before heading off on a family pre-chrimbo thing. The figures in the SBP have been confirmed as follows;

FF 17
FG 34
LP 23
GP 2
SF 14
OTH 10

I’ll have a bit of a closer look at this when I get the paper, but the spreadsheet says….

FF 23 seats
FG 64 seats
LP 44 seats
SF 21 seats
GP nada
OTH 14 seats

It may be the start of a fightback for FF, but they’re still short of the sort of critical mass they need for seats in most areas, although another 3% or so would see them start to climb more significantly. A very good poll for FG – you have to go back 12 polls to find them as high as this, I suspect their new leader Michael Noonan will claim credit for this 😉

LP miss out on a lot of seats by a small margin here, mainly to SF and FG in that order. SF down a bit, but would still be delighted with this.

As I say, am off on family stuff but will return to this poll later.

D

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Written by Dotski

December 19, 2010 at 1:05 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

17 Responses

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  1. If i dont say it now then Happy Christmas to you and yours.

    These are great posts

    que

    December 19, 2010 at 1:59 pm

    • cheers, and to you and yours (and everyone here!)

      Dotski

      December 20, 2010 at 2:31 pm

  2. tut tut 🙂
    are you trying to deflect from Labour reduction by focusing on a non-existant FG leadership contest between Kenny and Noonan?

    i always thought the “Kenny is a good chairman” argument was a lame excuse, but when you look at the strength of his front bench allowing for the forced changes after the leadership contest), and the vast amount of detailed policy papers they have compared to Labour, the argument has much more merit.

    Noonan’s promotion to Finance spokesman, although imposed on Kenny, supports this view and shows he can make the best of a bad lot.

    bprob

    December 19, 2010 at 5:31 pm

    • 🙂

      I do think that Noonan is coming across very well, and Kenny’s relative withdrawal from the limelight being followed by their rise in the polls is noticeable, so I thought it might be a funny headline.

      Seriously though, I had heard rumblings that if Cowen is replaced as leader of FF, there might be a move on Kenny, and if so Noonan would be in a very good position, as he does appear to be the most popular politician at the moment (much more so than Bruton ever was, IMO).

      It may not happen of course, but I suspect it’s what Gilmore would fear most. I would if I was him….

      Dotski

      December 19, 2010 at 10:20 pm

      • interesting information. if thats the case, you should start a thread on P.ie and see if anyone else has heard anything.

        but the haemophilia issue has already bitten them once, bringing the party to an appalling low, and i can’t see them risking that sort of backlash

        bprob

        December 20, 2010 at 12:04 am

        • Possibly, but I think there’s a good deal of sympathy for him given his personal circumstances, and I think he’s easily the best performer in the media at present. Also a lot of today’s voters wouldn’t remember that.

          I know that there’s an assumption in some senior FF quarters that it would happen if they ditch Cowen, although I’ve no idea if it’s true (it may be to scare off ppl thinking of backing Lenihen) anyone I’ve asked in FG say they’ve not heard it, but one said it “wouldn’t surprise” him

          Dotski

          December 20, 2010 at 11:25 am

      • Agreed he’s the reason they are consolidating. But he’s effectively holding the place together by dint of his experience, which can also be interpreted as age.

        Besides, he had a go before and was pretty much hounded out. I hate to say it about such a competent politician (when there are so few of them to choose from), but the folically challenged have their limitations in politics.

        Mick

        December 22, 2010 at 10:17 am

        • Hi Mick,

          Great to hear from you, Slugger is one of the best sites about, IMO. I’ve big northern connections personally, but perhaps because of them I find politics up there a bit depressing.

          ON the ‘bald truth’ yes, it may indeed be a factor, Quinn didn’t do as well as I thought he deserved as LP leader, Ganley also failed to make the breakthrough many predicted. But I suspect FG under Noonan would still be more popular than under Kenny.

          Dotski

          December 22, 2010 at 9:25 pm

          • I just think “Scrap Saturday” when I think of Noonan (though I’ve always been impressed in any contacts I’ve had with him over the years).

            Agreed on Northern politics. Most of it seems to be missing the point of politics. The GFA architecture means there are none of the release points political parties need to renew and regroup in opposition that even FF will get from a spring election.

            The DRD Minister is currently communicating that he’s almost completely bored with his brief, now first the Roads Service and latterly NI Water has exploded in his face.

            Mick

            December 31, 2010 at 7:21 pm

  3. […] 15, Independents 12 (including 5 United Left Alliance seats) Whilst Dotskis magic Spreadsheet on Irish Polling Report calculates Fianna Fail 23, Fine Gael 64, Labour 44, Green Party 0, Sinn Fein 21, Others […]

  4. Labours Colm Keaveney tops poll on Mid West Radio poll for Galway East. INN conduct poll and Labour gain in East Galway and Nolan to loose out in West Galway.

    Mendoza

    December 21, 2010 at 9:40 pm

    • I’d say something more moderate than both those polls are ultimately likely – I can see Keaveney elected alright, but topping the poll would be something surprising, especially now he has a running mate (I presume it was taken with just him as LP candidate?). If he takes the 4th seat he’ll be happy, if it’s better he’ll be ecstatic. Nolan I can see doing much better, he has a few months to get name recognition.

      Dotski

      December 22, 2010 at 9:20 pm

  5. Hi dotski, unless Im much mistaken you didnt tell us which seats would fall to according to who your spreadsheet on these numbers, would that be possible?
    Keep up the good work in 2011!

    Blissett

    December 31, 2010 at 7:03 pm

    • Hi Blisset – if there’s a particular constituency let me know and I’ll dig it out – I didn’t do a detailed round up last time as it was quite close to the MRBI a few days earlier, and I’ve started putting together a template in the spreadsheet that generates a ‘skeleton’ report that I can drop comments into (the way I’ve been transcribing it to date is a bit time consuming). If I finish that before the next poll comes out I’ll run the last RedC through it.

      D

      Dotski

      January 1, 2011 at 10:36 pm

      • right fair enough. Id be most interested in Cavan Monaghan, Dublin MW, and Cork NC and SC, if thats not too much trouble!

        Blissett

        January 1, 2011 at 11:09 pm

        • Rough and ready…

          Cav-Mon I have;
          FF 16.7% (1 seat)
          FG 34.9% (2 seats)
          LP 5.6%
          GP 1.6%
          SF 34.0% (2 seats)
          OTH 7.3%

          CNC
          FF 6.7%
          FG 34.2% 2 seats
          LP 26.7% 1 seat
          GP 0.7%
          SF 15.4% 1 seat
          OTH 16.3%

          CSC
          FF 13.3% 1 seat
          FG 38.5% 2 seats
          LP 25.7% 1 seat
          GP 3.9%
          SF 12.9% 1 seat
          OTH 5.7%

          DMW
          FF 10.7%
          FG 25.6% 1 seats
          LP 31.9% 2 seats
          GP 5.4%
          SF 17.4% 1 seats
          OTH 9.1%

          Dotski

          January 1, 2011 at 11:41 pm


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