First of the year….
Hi y’all,
Am out at a family thing but have downloaded the spreadsheet onto my Dad’s PC (and OpenOffice) and have managed to run the figures of today’s RedC/Paddy Power Poll (having failed to presuade GoogleDocs and Excel to run it).
According to the spreadsheet, the projected figures would be as follows;
FG 35% – 64 seats
LP 21% – 46 seats
FF 14% – 16 seats
SF 14% – 23 seats (yes, yes, I know….)
GP 4% – 2 seats
OTH 12% – 15 seats (5 of them ULA, 4 more also l/w)
I’ll try to get the detailed figures and deeper analysis this evening.
D
Irish Polling Report 
Cheers for sharing a simplified version, you are ahead of the online media, according to Google 🙂
Damien, Fairocracy.com
January 7, 2011 at 7:15 pm
Cheers Damien – always good to be onside with Google! 😉
Dotski
January 8, 2011 at 2:34 am
thanks for the speedy update, dotski.
looking forward to the full version, as always.
since the breakdown by area of the country has been published, will you be able to apply the provincial/dublin figures to constituencies in those areas, so as to make your extrapolation more accurate?
bprob
January 7, 2011 at 7:24 pm
I’m thinking of running it over the weekend, but there are a couple of factors that make me hesitate (1) the margin of error for the regions is much higher (I did it before for myself for one poll, and it saw Indos taking about 8 seats in Leinster!), and (2) the social background mix that polls have to have only applies to the national sample, and there can be e.g. too many middle class in one province and too few in another, and while that’s OK if it cancels out for the national figure, it can make the local figures less reliable.
it might throw up interesting issues though, so I will do it if I have time (the template profile needed a bit of attention mind so I might not)
D
Dotski
January 8, 2011 at 2:33 am
fair enough. age, sex, social class etc are just as important as location.
perhaps if the provincial figures are slightly unbalanced for those factors, only post a provincial figure prediction for a constituency if it is very startling or different from the national figure prediction for the same constituency
bprob
January 8, 2011 at 6:33 pm
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January 7, 2011 at 7:57 pm