On your Marx….

A few polls are expected in the next 48-72 hours – first off the blocks to be leaked is the Lansdowne poll commissioned by the Sindo (apparently showing what they really think of the credibility of Quantum Research).

According to the Twittersphere, the figures are;

FF 16%
FG 34%
LP 24%
SF 10%
GP 1%
OTH 15%

I’ve run this through the spreadsheet and come up with the following figures

FF 19 seats
FG 62 seats
LP 54 seats
SF 8 seats
GP nada
OTH 23 seats

Given Lansdowne are taken less frequently, it’s hard to comment too much on the trends here, but it does appear that FF have made some gains, mainly at the expense of SF, but also to the detriment of LP, FG and GP.

Am going out later (to a real life, rather than political, pantomime) so I don’t know whether I’ll catch the RedC figures. When I do I’ll obviously post for them, and will do a more in depth analysis following this. I’ll also be posting details of a prediction competition in the next day or so (no big prizes, I’m afraid, but a donation to a charity of the winner’s choice, just to make a bit more interesting….)

For what it’s worth, my initial reaction is that FF are lower in this than I’d have expected, given the honeymoon effect new leaders can generally bank upon, and this may be because we are so close to a GE. FG will be glad to be in a position of a clear lead, but will be nervous that they don’t have clear water between themselves and LP, given LP may expect better transfers from SF and OTH.