Irish Polling Report

A place to discuss Irish opinion polls

On your Marx….

with 7 comments

A few polls are expected in the next 48-72 hours – first off the blocks to be leaked is the Lansdowne poll commissioned by the Sindo (apparently showing what they really think of the credibility of Quantum Research).

According to the Twittersphere, the figures are;

FF 16%
FG 34%
LP 24%
SF 10%
GP 1%
OTH 15%

I’ve run this through the spreadsheet and come up with the following figures

FF 19 seats
FG 62 seats
LP 54 seats
SF 8 seats
GP nada
OTH 23 seats

Given Lansdowne are taken less frequently, it’s hard to comment too much on the trends here, but it does appear that FF have made some gains, mainly at the expense of SF, but also to the detriment of LP, FG and GP.

Am going out later (to a real life, rather than political, pantomime) so I don’t know whether I’ll catch the RedC figures. When I do I’ll obviously post for them, and will do a more in depth analysis following this. I’ll also be posting details of a prediction competition in the next day or so (no big prizes, I’m afraid, but a donation to a charity of the winner’s choice, just to make a bit more interesting….)

For what it’s worth, my initial reaction is that FF are lower in this than I’d have expected, given the honeymoon effect new leaders can generally bank upon, and this may be because we are so close to a GE. FG will be glad to be in a position of a clear lead, but will be nervous that they don’t have clear water between themselves and LP, given LP may expect better transfers from SF and OTH.

Written by Dotski

January 29, 2011 at 4:22 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

7 Responses

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  1. […] […]

  2. dotski, that adds up to 90%
    i assume FG should be ahead of Lab rather than equal, from the way you wrote later in the post?


    January 29, 2011 at 4:34 pm

    • Sorry yes was a typo – FG on 34% (corrected now)


      January 29, 2011 at 6:09 pm

  3. Dotski, Strangely I had heard strong rumours yesterday from sources I would trust that the RedC poll showed a SF surge. I ran it past two LP TDs who didn’t disagree. SF vote @ 10% looks extraordinarily low. I feel it is closer to 20% than 10%


    January 29, 2011 at 4:36 pm

    • Agree looks very low, would expect them higher in RedC and LP lower, on past experience


      January 29, 2011 at 6:09 pm

  4. SF on 10% in a SINDO poll is a surge

    Joe Hickey

    January 29, 2011 at 4:41 pm

  5. […] and fast. The Indo has commissioned a poll from Lansdowne/Millward Browne, only days after the Sindo had them do one, and while it’s out tomorrow, RTE announced the result tonight. It’s good for SF, bad […]

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