Irish Polling Report

A place to discuss Irish opinion polls

… wait for it ….

with 4 comments


It was suggested to me that the Irish Times had a poll coming out tomorrow, and I was holding off the until the details of that came out, in order to do a ‘poll of polls’ constituency-by-constituency projection, as there’d be little point in dong 3 very similar posts like that within 2 days. There’s no sign of that at this stage (11:20 pm) and so it looks like that was a bum steer. I’ll post one based on the two out today on Monday evening (unless it’s leaked early enough on Monday, in which case I’ll do one based on all three).

On other matters, as mentioned previously, I’m running two predictions competitions for the GE, one for predictions in the first week of the campaign, and the other with predictions made in the last week. Both prizes will be a small donation to a charity chosen by the winners (so you can maintain your anonymity). I’ve put together a spreadsheet that will allow you give your percentage and seat predictions for each party in each constituency, in a format that will make it easy for me to pick out the winner if there are a lot of entrants. In both competitions, the winner will be the person who is out by the smallest total amount in the party seat totals for each constituency – the party vote levels in each constituency is the tie breaker.

I’ve also developed a spreadsheet for the day of the count that should put us ahead of the curve in terms of interpreting early tallies, and I’ll be filling you in more about this over the next week or two.

Anyways, work in the morning. Hopefully you’ll find tomorrows post interesting, and you’ll all enter the competition.


Written by Dotski

January 31, 2011 at 12:23 am

Posted in Uncategorized

4 Responses

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  1. Dotski

    Good call, by the way how do you get your candidate predictions or is that a closely guarded secret.

    Forgotten liberal

    January 31, 2011 at 11:36 am

    • Ta! Have another spreadsheet, ppl will have to e-mail to me (not sure how else to handle large volume if there is a big entry) – details announced with GE called,



      February 1, 2011 at 1:58 am

  2. You do like your spreadsheets, don’t you 🙂


    January 31, 2011 at 4:02 pm

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