Archive for February 2011
Polls Positions
The final seats have yet to be allocated, so I’ll be reserving my comments on this until after the last count, but at this stage we know the FPVs of each party, and I thought it might be timely to review how the different organisations (and my good self!) did in trying to gauge how many votes each party would get, that being the idea behind such polling in the first place.
Most of you will be well aware that MRBI and Millward/Lansdowne have been rubbished for some time by some FG posters on politics.ie in particular, despite having as good a record in General Elections (I’ve outlined elsewhere why I believe you can’t compare effectiveness in predicting GE results with other elections). The posters generally pointed to RedC as the most reliable, despite having no better (and arguably a worse) record in predicting GE results. This time, despite (yet again) being held closer to polling day than the other companies final pre-polling day efforts, RedC were actually the furthest out of all the respected polling companies, as I suspected they might be.
The last MRBI poll, which I flagged as the one to watch (having been extremely close in ’07), was the first of the “final” polls to be published, leaked on Sunday evening and published in Monday’s Irish Times. They were out by 0.9% for FG, 0.4% for LP, 1.4% for FF, 1.1% for SF, 0.2% for GP, and 0.4% OTH, making their total deviation a very impressive 4.4%. Millward Brown/Lansdown came out the following day and were 1.9% out for FG, 0.6% for LP, 3.4% FF, 1.1% SF, 0.8% GP and 0.6% OTH, making their deviation a less impressive (but still solid) 8.4%. The last official poll of the campaign came from RedC (as in 2007) and as in the previous GE, they failed to make this advantage work for them, with the least accurate prediction of the final vote. They were 3.9% out for FG, 1.4% for LP, 2.4% for FF, 0.1% for SF, 1.2% for GP, and 1.4% for OTH, a whopping 10.4% overall.
As regular readers will be aware, I went out on a limb and posted my predictions on polling day and my figures were out by 1.8% for FG, 0.1% for LP, 1.1% for FF, 0.1% for SF, 0.2% for GP and 0.9% for OTH, a total deviation of 4.2%. And finally, another MB/L poll, this time an exit poll for RTE, gave figures that deviated by 0% for FG, 1.1% for LP, 2.3% FF, 0.2% for SF, 0.9% for GP and 0.1% for OTH, a total deviation of 4.6%.
In summary, the total number of percentage points the last projections were out by was as follows;
MRBI 4.4%
MB/L 8.4%
RedC 10.4%
IPR 4.2%
Exit 4.6%
Now, that’s not to rubbish RedC, polling is a complicated discipline, but rather I think it does shoot the credibility of those who ridiculed the other company results, particularly people who poured scorn on MRBI for recording figures that they didn’t agree with, and who took particular exception to my basing projections on their data. MRBI by contrast were the closest of all the polls in the final week (even better than the Exit Poll) and the only prediction I’m aware of being closer was mine, which was based in large part on their poll anyway.
So next time you hear someone scorning a polling company, check who they are, who they support, and look at the evidence.
17:50 update
Folks,
By my reckoning, likely vote shares after the remaining counts come in are roughly;
FF 17.2%
FG 35.7%
LP 20.6%
SF 9.6%
GP 1.8%
OTH 15%
Quite close to the exit poll, and arguably closer to my prediction yesterday (described by one tweeter as “spooky” earlier today) which was;
| % | seats | |
| FF | 16.3% | 20 |
| FG | 37.9% | 73 |
| LP | 19.5% | 42 |
| GP | 2.0% | 0 |
| SF | 9.8% | 10 |
| oth | 14.5% | 21 |
For what its worth, my current prediction is;
FF 22
FG 73
LP 39
SF 12
OTH 20
A lot of water to go under the bridge before the accuracy of these is decided….
D
Edge of their seats
Twitter seems to have exploded ….
FWIW, the 1pm tallies are starting to look like the following to me;
FF 22 seats
FG 70 seats
LP 39 seats
SF 12 seats
GP 1 seat
OTH 22 seats
A lot of seats up in the air though, and transfers will be more than unpredictable….
Early Indications part deux…
Based on tallies of varying completeness in 23 constituencies;
FF 18% (25 seats)
FG 36% (73 seats)
LP 19% (38 seats)
SF 9% (9 seats)
GP 2% (0 seats)
OTH 16% (21 seats)
Obviously a drift to FF from LP there, although very early …. LP not certain of breaking 40 just yet, FF getting a bit of hope from some of those tallies.
Early indications
There’s about 15 partial tallies in, and while they all individually come with large health warnings, such difficulties tend to cancel one another out when you have a good spread. I’m projecting from these a likely national vote in the region of the following;
FF 17.5%
FG 35.7%
LP 20.4%
SF 8.9%
GP 2.0%
OTH 15.5%
As you can see, that’s pretty close to the exit poll, but has FF a wee bit higher, perhaps 2-2.5%. It could just be a blip, and not enough to save them from a disastrous result, but could save a few careers. I’ll do a seats projection in a bit….
Exit Strategy
RTE Exit poll from Millward Brown is out, and if accurate (they wre very accurate in 2007) it would support my argument that MRBI was closest to the money again. Vote shares (with my projections in brackets)
FF 15.1% (17)
FG 36.1% (71)
LP 20.5% (41)
SF 10.1% (12)
GP 2.7% (2)
OTH 15.5% (23)
As you can see from here that is very close to my projections from yesterday. Just a poll and all that, but still, happy enough with that….
FF rating for Dublin is apparently very low (8% if I heard correctly) but that could be the lower sample, national figure will be more reliable given the 2.5% margin of error.
Of course, a long way to go, I’ll be updating projections based on the tallies as they come in today.
D
Waiting …
Well,
I’ve sat down and come to my final conclusions, and have (somewhat foolhardily, I suppose) decided to publish them, thereby setting myself up for ridicule, given some of the 43 constituencies are likely to go very differently. As I say, it’s not a portal on the future….
My national projected vote is roughly based on the MRBI figures and the general trend, plus some adjustments to the base votes to take account of constituency polling during the campaign. While RedC had a slight increase for FG in the margin of error in their last poll, the other two companies had them flattening, and I think that’s largely what was happening at the end of the campaign. On these figures, they would be well short of the 84 everyone is talking about, and which they were tipped to achieve on RTE radio the other day. LP similarly had appeared to have stopped the rot in all the polling towards the end. Some people see an on the day problem for them based on the 2009 Local/Euro elections and Donegal SW, but in GEs they’ve generally performed as the last MRBI polls projected, and I don’t see this being too different. Locals and Euros are a very different creature, and by-elections even more so (ask Catherine Murphy), but in GEs most ppl know pretty much how they will vote.
SF I have a little down, being ‘squeezed’ as smaller parties often are at the end. FF I see making only a small recovery on the day, and not enough to push them past territory more associated with LP. I have the GP just missing out in a couple of areas, although close enough that I won’t be surprised if Trevor Sargant in particular holds on. OTHs I see taking a decent block of seats.
Summary of my prediction is as follows.
| % | seats | |
| FF | 16.3% | 20 |
| FG | 37.9% | 73 |
| LP | 19.5% | 42 |
| GP | 2.0% | 0 |
| SF | 9.8% | 10 |
| oth | 14.5% | 21 |
FWIW, even including FF gene-pool, there’s only a mximum 11 “Enda-pendents”, making a FG-IND arrangement impossible without supplementary agreement from FF, who may yet find a role for themselves in the next Dail as a “loyal opposition” should negotiations on a Programme for Government break down between FG and LP.
Anways, these are my predictions – if you disagree with them, why not show me yours? 😉
I’ll be making projections tomorrow, initially based on the exit poll (on RTE sometime between 7am and 8am, but I can’t promise I’ll make it that early!) and then based on the tallies. The initial tally-based ones will be less reliable than the later ones, but if your party does better in the first 7 or 8 tallies that come in than one would expect, you can generally assume that its going to be a good day for you. Similarly, if they are all going badly ….
Anyways, enjoy the count, and who knows, we may be going this all over again in 6 months…..? 😉
| FF | FG | LP | GP | SF | OTH | ||||||||
| Carlow-Kilkenny | 5 | 25.4% | 1 | 40.2% | 3 | 13.5% | 1 | 4.7% | 6.6% | 9.7% | |||
| Cavan-Monaghan | 5 | 16.0% | 1 | 38.7% | 2 | 5.0% | 1.5% | 26.9% | 1 | 12.0% | 1 | ||
| Clare | 4 | 22.0% | 1 | 45.4% | 2 | 8.9% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 19.2% | 1 | |||
| Cork E | 4 | 16.5% | 37.1% | 2 | 29.9% | 2 | 0.8% | 9.2% | 6.4% | ||||
| Cork NC | 4 | 15.9% | 1 | 23.5% | 1 | 22.6% | 1 | 2.1% | 15.9% | 1 | 20.0% | ||
| Cork NW | 3 | 31.2% | 1 | 46.8% | 2 | 10.4% | 1.6% | 4.8% | 5.2% | ||||
| Cork SC | 5 | 22.4% | 1 | 40.2% | 3 | 16.1% | 1 | 3.0% | 7.3% | 11.0% | |||
| Cork SW | 3 | 23.3% | 1 | 40.0% | 1 | 17.7% | 1 | 3.8% | 7.6% | 7.7% | |||
| Donegal NE | 3 | 18.5% | 33.8% | 1 | 15.3% | 1 | 0.7% | 22.3% | 1 | 9.5% | |||
| Donegal SW | 3 | 19.4% | 1 | 28.8% | 1 | 9.4% | 0.6% | 27.3% | 1 | 14.6% | |||
| Dublin C | 4 | 7.9% | 20.5% | 1 | 27.7% | 1 | 0.6% | 11.3% | 31.9% | 2 | |||
| Dublin Mid-West | 4 | 13.3% | 31.8% | 2 | 25.5% | 1 | 6.1% | 12.1% | 1 | 11.2% | |||
| Dublin N | 4 | 14.9% | 32.7% | 2 | 23.7% | 1 | 10.7% | 0.0% | 18.0% | 1 | |||
| Dublin NC | 3 | 12.0% | 39.4% | 1 | 17.3% | 1 | 1.9% | 7.5% | 21.8% | 1 | |||
| Dublin NE | 3 | 11.6% | 32.6% | 1 | 30.0% | 2 | 2.2% | 14.6% | 9.0% | ||||
| Dublin NW | 3 | 13.2% | 22.3% | 1 | 36.9% | 2 | 0.5% | 19.5% | 7.6% | ||||
| Dublin S | 5 | 8.1% | 37.0% | 2 | 23.1% | 2 | 6.9% | 4.0% | 20.9% | 1 | |||
| Dublin SC | 5 | 4.6% | 23.0% | 1 | 40.1% | 3 | 0.6% | 10.9% | 20.9% | 1 | |||
| Dublin SE | 4 | 11.9% | 29.8% | 2 | 25.6% | 1 | 6.9% | 5.4% | 20.5% | 1 | |||
| Dublin SW | 4 | 11.5% | 32.9% | 2 | 27.5% | 1 | 1.1% | 18.7% | 1 | 8.3% | |||
| Dublin W | 4 | 14.3% | 25.0% | 1 | 32.5% | 2 | 0.0% | 6.8% | 21.4% | 1 | |||
| Dun Laoghaire | 4 | 17.4% | 1 | 30.7% | 1 | 31.7% | 2 | 3.2% | 3.9% | 13.1% | |||
| Galway E | 4 | 14.0% | 51.3% | 2 | 14.6% | 1 | 0.0% | 5.1% | 14.9% | 1 | |||
| Galway W | 5 | 13.5% | 1 | 36.5% | 2 | 14.3% | 1 | 2.5% | 5.8% | 27.4% | 1 | ||
| Kerry N | 3 | 13.8% | 39.3% | 1 | 17.1% | 1 | 0.7% | 22.5% | 1 | 6.7% | |||
| Kerry S | 3 | 15.9% | 30.6% | 1 | 15.8% | 0.4% | 5.7% | 31.5% | 2 | ||||
| Kildare N | 4 | 9.8% | 36.9% | 2 | 28.3% | 1 | 1.9% | 4.9% | 18.2% | 1 | |||
| Kildare S | 3 | 24.0% | 1 | 24.8% | 1 | 28.8% | 1 | 4.0% | 4.6% | 13.7% | |||
| Laois-Offaly | 5 | 28.6% | 2 | 40.4% | 2 | 8.0% | 0.6% | 9.8% | 1 | 12.6% | |||
| Limerick E | 4 | 15.1% | 1 | 40.0% | 2 | 25.5% | 1 | 0.7% | 7.1% | 11.7% | |||
| Limerick W | 3 | 24.3% | 1 | 51.8% | 2 | 17.1% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 4.0% | ||||
| Longford-Westmeath | 4 | 18.7% | 1 | 37.1% | 2 | 32.6% | 1 | 0.4% | 6.0% | 5.2% | |||
| Louth | 5 | 11.4% | 1 | 40.2% | 2 | 15.0% | 1 | 2.8% | 23.8% | 1 | 6.7% | ||
| Mayo | 5 | 16.9% | 1 | 56.9% | 3 | 8.2% | 0.0% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 1 | |||
| Meath E | 3 | 15.5% | 47.6% | 2 | 21.7% | 1 | 0.9% | 6.8% | 7.5% | ||||
| Meath W | 3 | 14.0% | 47.1% | 2 | 13.0% | 0.1% | 16.4% | 1 | 9.5% | ||||
| Roscommon S Leitrim | 3 | 14.6% | 46.1% | 2 | 12.4% | 1 | 0.8% | 11.1% | 14.9% | ||||
| Sligo N Leitrim | 3 | 17.4% | 1 | 45.3% | 2 | 9.6% | 0.8% | 13.7% | 13.2% | ||||
| Tipperary N | 3 | 13.7% | 31.1% | 1 | 14.2% | 1 | 0.4% | 5.9% | 34.6% | 1 | |||
| Tipperary S | 3 | 13.2% | 31.5% | 1 | 14.6% | 1 | 0.4% | 5.1% | 35.2% | 1 | |||
| Waterford | 4 | 13.4% | 43.9% | 2 | 18.6% | 1 | 0.0% | 9.5% | 14.6% | 1 | |||
| Wexford | 5 | 19.5% | 1 | 39.8% | 2 | 20.0% | 1 | 0.8% | 7.1% | 12.7% | 1 | ||
| Wicklow | 5 | 9.1% | 40.2% | 2 | 26.4% | 2 | 2.0% | 9.0% | 13.2% | 1 | |||
| 166 | FF | 20 | FG | 73 | LP | 42 | GP | 0 | SF | 10 | OTH | 21 |
RedC breaks from the pack …..
The final poll from RedC during this campaign (and one presumes the last of any company until the polls close) has come out, and unlike those from the other companies, it suggests that the FG surge has continued, pushing them to the magical 40% figure. Figures (plus uniform swing projected seats in brackets) are as follows;
FF 15% (17)
FG 40% (79)
LP 18% (35)
GP 3% (2)
SF 10% (11)
OTH 14% (22)
Clearly this is so close to FG getting a majority as makes no difference, the poll margin of error is significantly greater than that required to push them past 84 seats, and they could be lucky on transfers (although I’m assuming they’ll do well on these, especially OTH except in areas where this is a left-wing candidate). They will be conscious though that they have been doing better in RedC (and LP worse) for 2 years or so, and in the last GE, RedC’s final poll was much further out than MRBI, particularly for the 3 main parties, despite being taken later than the MRBI one. Then, RedC were 3.6% out for FF, 1.3% for FG, 0.9% for LP. The MRBI effort was out by 0.6% for FF, 0.3% for FG, and 0.1% for LP.
LP will be hoping that the other polls (notably MRBI) which have them higher are more accurate, but it is notable that they are either steady or slightly up in the last poll for each company, and so it appears their campaign has been ending in a more successful manner than it started. However, if the trend in RedC is correct, Gilmore may be leading a PLP of about 35-40 into opposition against a FG govt with a series of “understandings” with the Indo TDs. Some will say, better to reign in hell than to serve in heaven, I suppose….
FF will be disturbed to see another poll pointing to a decline, rather than a recovery in their fortunes. On these figures they are in real trouble, and it’s only the lower than average performance by SF that stops them doing even worse. At this stage it’s hard to see them having the sort of recovery I initially expected of them.
SF will be slightly concerned to see a dip back to 10%, but can console themselves that this is (probably) normal movement within the margin of error. GP by contrast may be given hope by a similar movement within the margin of error that puts them in “getting seats” territory, but this may be equally illusory.
Anyway, a reminder of the prediction competition – the prize is only a small donation to the charity of your choice, but bragging rights will of course be secured. If you’re someone who has been slagging of the spreadsheet over on p.ie, I’d particularly suggest that you enter, to show us all how it’s done! 😉
EDIT: I’ve seen the poll report, and an interesting set of figures is the “how likely are you to vote for your party” question. 59% express themselves as having either made up their mind before the campaign (22%) or during it (37%), with the reaminder being either pretty sure but not completely (32%), or not at all (9%).
So what percentage of each party’s supporters made up their minds? Figures are FF 61%, FG 69%, LP 71%, SF 69%, OTH 51% (no figure reported for GP, oddly enough). While RedC say FF can take some comfort from this (reasoning being that many of the OTH vote is ex-FF), the quite low level of certainty among the FF voters suggests that they could do even worse on the day. It shoudl also not be assumed that uncertainty among former FF voters is a sign that FF will do well among those voters, as they may just be trying to choose among their non-FF options, and in most cases will take longer to decide as they’ve never voted against FF before.
Their deliberations could be informed by the question on most favoured Govt, with a FG/LP the most popular at 33%, but a growing number either wanting FG or FG/IND (32% combined between 2 options). 56% want LP in some sort of govt combination, although presumbly not all those who want LP/FF/SF wish to see them in with FG.
Independents Day?
Hi folks,
Am back in the country (was away on work) and see there’s another poll, this time from Lansdown/Millward Brown. I’ve run it throught the spreadsheet and have got the following figures;
| FF | 14.0% | 13 |
| FG | 38.0% | 75 |
| LP | 20.0% | 42 |
| GP | 1.0% | 0 |
| SF | 11.0% | 11 |
| oth | 16.0% | 25 |
FG are still tottering just short of an overall majority, but the drop in FF (and even the small one in SF) would appear to give LP the edge in a few battleground seats (in the West, as it happens…)
It’s late, but I’ll be back to the blog tomorrow, when I understand that there’s likely to be a RedC poll (one presumes the last of the campaign).
D
Last lap
Hi,
I’m out of the jurisdiction at the moment (and posting this from a hot-spot that refuses to recognise Firefox!), but got a text last night of figures for the last MRBI poll, which I presume you’ve all read. This is an important one, as the final MRBI in 2007 out predicted all the other polls, including a later effort from RedC, with the MRBI poll being to the nearest percentage point for FF, FG and LP.
The percentages (along with seat projections) are as follows;
FF 16% (18 seats)
FG 37% (74 seats)
LP 19% (38 seats)
SF 11% (16 seats)
GP 2%
OTH 15% (20 seats)
Unsurprisingly, it reflects the swing against LP last week, and if LP are to finish north of 40 seats, they will need to have some sort of modest recovery in the final week. This level is almost exactly what they got in 1992, although there was must less of the vote to their left in that election. In ’92, had they run sufficient numbers of candidates they would have got about this figure, so it is open to argument as to whether this would be a better or worse result.
FG, perhaps slightly surprisingly, appear to be approaching a ceiling. My own expectation was that they’d break the 40% barrier in this poll, with a bandwagon effect (coupled with the fear of Indos holding sway) pushing them over the line towards overall majority territory. While this would represent an outstanding result for them, it is again, like LP, no more than their best performance under Garret FitzGerald in the 1980s.
SF will be happy to see another poll that has them over 10%, and will be hoping that they hold this vote better than they did in ’07. Given how much of their vote appears to be rooted in anger over the bailout, I suspect that they will. The Greens, while still in the margin of error, will hope that they can push up to 3-4% in the final week and salvage up to 3 seats. OTHs remain an enigma, and one that won’t be resolved until Saturday when the votes start coming out of the boxes.
FF on the other hand seem stuck on 16%, and will be hoping that the methodology of all 3 polling companies is understating their support. They may be, however it’s hard to see this being more than a couple of percentage points, and they probably have to hit 19% or so to make the breakthough in a large number of 3 seats in the West.
And 19% undecided at this stage? Will they even make it to the polling stations, I wonder? Time will tell
I’d like to remind you that the prediction competition is open to the close of polls, when I understand that details of an Exit Poll may start to emerge. As soon as we have that out, I’ll run the figures, and on the day of the count, I’ll be using a spreadsheet I’ve developed to take the tallies as they come , compare them against the expected results, and use the variance to estimate the votes in un-tallied areas. The early results will be skewed by incomplete tallies in perhaps an unrepresentative sample of constituencies, but by 10-15 tallies in I expect us to have a reasonably good steer on where it’s going.
Laters….
D
Place your bets …..
Folks,
As promised, I’m running a second prediction competition, for entries made in the last week of the campaign.
Competitors will give their best estimate of the seats (and percentage vote share) in each constituency. The winner will be the entrant who is least out in terms of total seats for each party (e.g. if 2 too many for FF and 2 too few for FG, you are 4 out). If there is a tie, it will go to whoever was least out in percentage shares of the vote in each constituency. The winner will not gain any great riches for him/herself, but a small (€10) donation to a charity chosen by them, really just something to make it interesting.
Entries should be entered into the spreadsheet downloadable at this address (you may be asked to wait 20 seconds before downloading), and when you complete this, please save it and send to irishpollingreport@gmail.com . Needless to say, I’ll not use your details for anything other than the competition.
NB Just to point out that Limerick East and West have been replace by Limerick City (4 seats) and Limerick County (3 seats) with a chunk going in with Kerry North – the spreadsheet uses the old names in case there is any confusion on this.
If you have any problems downloading the spreadsheet (or making it work) drop me a mail and I’ll do my best to sort it out.
D
It is now?
The two last polls for Sunday papers are out, and both show a swing from LP to FF.
The Lansdown/Millward Brown effort (leaked, denied then re-released on p.ie earlier today) , gives the following figures (my seat projections in brackets);
FF 16% (18)
FG 37% (73)
LP 20% (40)
SF 12% (15)
GP 1% (0)
OTH 14% (20)
The RedC broke later (but was confirmed earlier!) and gives the following figures (again, IPR projections in brackets)
FF 16% (18 seats)
FG 39% (78 seats)
LP 17% (33 seats)
SF 12% (16 seats)
GP 2% (0 seats)
OTH 14% (21 seats)
As you can see, both projections indicate FG reaching mid-70s, and in the RedC figures they are 5 seats (+ CC) short of an overall majority, and the momentum would appear to be with them. Even if they didn’t increase between now and Friday, they could cobble a government together with Indos, which would suggest that, should they fall short of the 84 seats, they will have a number of potential governmental colleagues. It would appear that, short of a car crash performance by Enda next week, FG will be pushing for the overall majority in the final week, and have probably started considering in a strategic way their options.
LP will be very worried by these figures. As you can see, there’s a big difference in seats between the 3% variance in their vote, there’s a tipping point in there somewhere between 17-20%, it seems. While the 3% drop obviously hits them in terms of seats, a big problem for them is the possible recovery of FF, with whom they now appear to be competing with to lead the opposition. In practical terms, it’s hard to see them lose enough ground to be overtaken in seats, but it cold happen in votes, which would for FF mean a successful campaign (and a terrible one for Gilmore). The next week will be a crucial one for them, and Gilmore may prepare himself for having to choose between being Tanaiste, or leader of the opposition.
FF will be quietly relieved to see a small recovery in these polls, and the danger that they may finish behind SF appears to have receded. However, unless their attractiveness for transfers has improved, they will be hard pushed to beat LP on seats.
SF will, while disappointed to see a FF recovery make their 4th placing look settled, will be relieved that two polls placing them on 10% have turned out to be a temporary dip. The Greens appear condemned to losing all their seats, and Indos maintain their strong showing in the polls.
Off to have dinner, but I’ll be back with details of the prediction competition and other stuff, hopefully tonight (assuming I’ve not turned to the drink by then……)
D
Local Heroes
While the IPR spreadsheet extrapolates from national polls, there’s always been a (justifiable) argument made that things will be different in the individual constituencies. I’d argue that these differences tend to cancel out on a national basis, although of course, in the case of small parties in particular, you can be lucky or unlucky in that.
There’s been a number of constituency polls using mock ballot papers over the last few days from reputable companies (as opposed to other polls where IT students did a project in some areas for the local rag), and rather than pore over each of these, given they generally have individual margins of error of 4.5%, I thought it would be interesting to look at a composite of these (which would have a smaller margin of error) and compare this with the most recent IPR projections in those constituencies.
The polls in question provided the following figures;
| FF (%) | FG (%) | LP (%) | GP (%) | SF (%) | OTH (%) | |
| Cork NC (average) | 14 | 23 | 30.5 | 1 | 14 | 17.5 |
| Cork SC | 27 | 36 | 19 | 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Donegal NE | 15 | 29 | 15 | 0 | 28.5 | 12.5 |
| Dun Laoghaire | 18 | 32 | 32 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| Galway W | 19 | 31 | 12 | 3 | 6 | 29 |
| Kerry Sth | 15 | 31 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 38 |
| Tipperary Sth | 10 | 31 | 14 | 0 | 5 | 40 |
| Average | 16.86 | 30.43 | 19.64 | 1.57 | 8.93 | 22.57 |
So how do these stack against the most recent IPR projections? These were as follows;
| FF | FG | LP | GP | SF | OTH | ||||||||
| Cork NC | 9.80% | 40.40% | 22.00% | 2.00% | 11.30% | 14.50% | |||||||
| Cork SC | 17.30% | 41.40% | 17.20% | 5.00% | 7.30% | 11.80% | |||||||
| Donegal NE | 21.20% | 33.10% | 12.80% | 1.10% | 22.80% | 9.00% | |||||||
| Dun Laoghaire | 11.70% | 28.80% | 31.70% | 4.60% | 3.60% | 19.60% | |||||||
| Galway W | 12.20% | 35.90% | 15.20% | 4.30% | 5.80% | 26.60% | |||||||
| Kerry S | 15.50% | 31.10% | 16.90% | 0.50% | 5.90% | 30.10% | |||||||
| Tipperary S | 13.50% | 29.50% | 14.40% | 0.50% | 5.20% | 36.90% | |||||||
| Average | 14.46% | 34.31% | 18.60% | 2.57% | 8.84% | 21.21% |
Well, interestingly, pretty close overall. In these polls, FF do 2.4% better, FG 3.9% worse, LP 1% better, GP 1% worse, SF 0.1% better and OTH 1.4% better. Very odd, given the protestations from some that the spreadsheet is biased against FG….
The main cause of FG’s underperformance in the polls relative to the projection is the retirement of Bernard Allen in Cork NC, and my underestimation of the individual effect this would have on their fortunes there. Interestingly though, what deviation there is in the other constituencies is also largely downwards. Even taking CNC out of the equation, the average FG vote in these polls is 31.7%, compared to 33.3% in the spreadsheet projections for those constituencies, which may temper the expectations among some that FG will significantly over-achieve compared to their national polling. They may of course do better on the day, but if they do, it will be the result of a national swing to them, rather than 43 cases of ‘local factors’ all going their way.
FF will draw some comfort that they are polling slightly higher in the constituency polls than in the projections, but given 2 of the 7 polls are in Cork City, this is likely to be at least in part a result of the Martin factor (a local langer leap) being underestimated by me. Interestingly, only two of the seven constituencies sees them make a quota despite Cork City being there twice, although they could be expected to get 4 seats out of these constituencies on these figures (CSC certain, Galway W pretty certain, Dun Laoghaire very probable, and touch & go in CNC and DNE), which is 1 seat more than I call it in the spreadsheet, so that couple of percentage points could make a big difference to them on the day. The big issue for them will be the 20-30% reported abstentions in these polls – whether these are “shy FFers”, or anti-FF voters who have yet to decide the flavour of their opposition, is the factor that is likely to seal their fate.
Labour should be happy enough with these polls overall. They’ve only 3 TDs running in these 7 constituencies, and their vote is 1% higher than the most recent projections. If I had to call the seats on these 7 polls, I’d give LP 7 seats , although 9 would be possible. This compares slightly favourably to the projections, where I have them getting 6 seats. Certainly, if offered these FPV shares at this stage of the campaign, they’d probably take them (if over the objections of Paula Desmond, who will be disappointed with the CSC figures).
After the largest 3 parties, it becomes harder to call given the margins of error, but it is noticeable that the SF vote is 0.1% higher in the polls than the projections, indicating that they should be able to translate their national fortunes locally, provided they get their voters out. The Greens however will be concerned that they under-perform in all 7 constituency polls, particularly as they are running an outgoing Oireachtas member in half of them, and so these are constituencies where their candidates are well known.
OTH do slightly better, although the nature of these candidates makes it hard to extrapolate nationally. It does suggest though that lack of high profile candidates will not impact on their appeal at the ballot box.
That’s all for tonight, I’ll have something for you tomorrow after the RedC poll breaks.
D
Some of the crowd are on the pitch…..
Well, another two polls today. A Hearld Poll of Dublin (using L/MB) as indicated that LP maintain their lead in the Capital, but all eyes this evening are on an national poll from them, in tomorrows Indo, which shows FG pulling well ahead of LP, , and FF and SF falling further behind the second party. While the poll was taken over the weekend, before the Valentine’s Night debate, indications are that this didn’t sway many – if any – voters, and so we can I think say that, short of a car crash moment, FG will emerge from the election as the largest party with LP the second biggest, and the only question now is whether Kenny & Co. will have the option of ruling without LP.
Anyways, the result, with the projections from the spreadsheet in brackets;
FF 12% (8 seats)
FG 38% (74 seats)
LP 23% (49 seats)
SF 10% (8 seats)
GP 1% (0 seats)
OTH 16% (27 seats)
Obviously, the apparent collapse in the FF vote is of course remarkable – but 8 seats? Well, maybe not, but that’s roughly what they’re looking at on these figures. Their big problem is that the areas where they may expect to get about a half above their national polling are largely in 3-seaters in the West of Ireland. To get getting 20%+ in those areas while 12% nationally, they’d have to be averaging 6% or so in places like Dublin , where they’re closer to 10%. Add to this and a transfer repellent brand, and they are utterly dependent on improving their FPV on the day. Now, they may do so, but any ‘Martin Bounce’ has been and gone, and this poll was taken after Martin was adjudged to have won the TV3 debate, so there’s no guarantee they’ll make up ground, and indeed could even lose some, as they may become to be seen as irrelevant – any hope they had of catching LP for 2nd place are surely gone now, with a vote of around half that of LP.
FG will be cock-a-hoop. Two polls in a row, from different companies, showing them at 38%. They go into the last week of the campaign assured of being the largest party after the election, and require only a small swing to get an overall majority. Even on these figures, there are Indos in Monaghan, Clare, DubS, GalE, GalW, KerryS, Mayo, Roscommon, TippN, TippS, Wicklow & poss. DSE that might be open to a deal (in the national interest, of course), which could give them an overall majority.
LP may prefer to not be down 1%, but given the movement in other polls they can’t be surprised, and indeed may even be relieved. It does seem likely that they’ve lost ground to FG on their right, but have gained an almost equivalent amount on their left. They have a week left to push their way back into contention, and it now seems to be a question as to whether Gilmore will be Tanaiste or Leader of the Opposition. Neither would be a poor result for a party historically used to being 10-15%, and to double this would be a historically brilliant result. However, if they don’t improve on it over the last week, they will look back on this as an opportunity missed.
SF will be concerned. Two polls now in a row, from different companies, both showing them at 10%. Again, that would be about half higher than last GE and a good result, but in the 10 polls between 3rd December and 6th February they averaged 13.2%, but two polls at 10% in a couple of days suggests that some of this has slipped. They will hope that Gerry Adams much improved performance in yesterday’s leader debate will turn this around, but there’ll be some nerves in Parnell Square reading these figures.
GP …. well … 1% in one poll, 3% in another ….. they’re in the margin of error, and if they hold a seat or two, it will be the direct result personal, rather than national issues. And OTH will be impossible to work out.
Whatever happens between now and Feb 25th – history of some sort awaits us, I think….
The PRC (People’s Republic of Cork)
Well, having spent a lot of time on p.ie defending the spreadsheet against charges of anti-FG bias, and then comes along a poll that suggests a much worse result for them in Cork North-Central than it generated. To recap, the spreadsheet, based on the weekend’s RedC national poll (taken Tues-Thurs last week) projected the result as follows;
FF 10%
FG 40%
LP 22%
SF 11%
GP 2%
OTH 15%
However, a poll conducted by MRBI for the Irish Times, showed FG as much weaker. Some of the figures aren’t entirely clear, but the overall figures reported on p.ie are as follows;
FF 13% (3% higher)
FG 21% (19% lower!)
LP 28% (6% higher)
SF 16% (5% higher)
GP 1% (1% lower)
OTH 21% (6% higher)
The margin of error is 4.5% but even so there is a surprising variance, compared to previous Cork polls run against the spreadsheet projections which were very close here and here. The biggest reason for this would appear to be the retirement of Bernard Allen, as FG are way way down, to the benefit of everyone else (except the GP who are in the margin of error anyway). He was reputed to have a massive personal vote, but given the retirement of FF’s Noel O’Flynn, and FG’s running of former Lord Mayor Dara Murphy (who is supposedly very popular) I decided against making an adjustment in the base figures in the spreadsheet for CNC. However, there are a number of other factors that would result in deviance between the two sets of figures, and these are as follows;
1. The projections are from a RedC poll, and this is an MRBI poll. RedC have given higher FG figures since the LP vote has taken off, and so could be expected to be somewhat higher – the last 5 MRBI polls gave FG a rating of about 4% lower than the preceding RedC poll, and so we could expect a similar deviation here.
2. The RedC poll is based on party preference, whereas this MRBI (unlike national polls for either company) was based on a ballot paper. Also, 30% of those surveyed returned blank papers. While it is hard to draw conclusions from this, it is likely that this would result in a lower preference being expressed for parties whose candidates are new, and still at the “getting-to-know-you” stage of the election process.
3. The polling period was Thursday/Friday as opposed to Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday, and this would tally with suggestions that the vote is very volatile.
4. It’s possible that one (or both) of the polls is an outlier.
Personally, I think probably the case that FG are somewhere in between the two figures. Certainly the MRBI figure looks too low, they were at 25.6% last time out, and the suggestion that they’re at barely over four-fifths of their ’07 seems very unlikely, even with the departure of Allen. However, it does seem reasonable to assume that this poll shows they have been hit hard by his leaving the stage, and I’ll be adjusting the base figures to reflect this in the spreadsheet.
What to take from it all?
Well, I think even with the above caveats, it makes the 2nd FG seat significantly less likely, as LP2 would appear likely to finish ahead of FG2. On this poll, that’s Gilroy on 10% who trails Lynch by 8%. LP should be looking to move him in to canvass in areas that she is strong in looking for number ones, on the grounds that she is safe, and sending her in to concentrate in areas where she is competing with O’Brien and/or Mick Barry. A more even split, combined with another couple of percentage points won at the expense of either SF or SP would appear enough to deliver a second seat on these figures. SF appear safe, but the margin of error means that they are far from over the line, and a squeeze in their vote could put this seat in jeopardy again. Barry will be hoping that this poll, showing him shading it from FF, will swing enough votes to give them. But there does, either way 3 left seats out of 4 appears likely.
FF will be disappointed to be well short of a quota and unlikely to take the seat, but it’s within the margin of error of the spreadsheet projection (and actually ahead of that figure). There’s FF supporters saying this is impossible with Martin being leader, but I suspect that the advantage of a Cork leader diminishes when its obvious that he’s not going to be in a position to deliver goodies. However, I’d not write Kelleher off on the basis of this poll, there may be a greater proportion of FF voters among the 30% of refuseniks. But I’d not put money on him unless it was 3/1 or better value….
All in all though, an interesting poll. An done which may temper over-optimism (or pessimism) among all us anoraks….
Table toppers
Folks,
Family stuff has meant I’ve not had the time to write a narrative over each constituency, but you can find below the output of the most recent RedC poll in table format (please let me know if you have any difficulties reading it on your PC, I know another bloggers whose tables only read OK in Firefox). The format (if you find it hard to read) is Constituency name; Number of seats; FF share of vote, FF seats;FG share of votes;FG share of seats etc, followed by LP, GP, SF & OTH. If you have any difficulties, please try downloading the PDF version at https://irishpollingreport.files.wordpress.com/2011/02/redc-feb13.pdf
I’ve been following the regional patterns in the polls with interest, as they’ve had a slight deviation from what the spreadsheet was throwing up (noticeably a higher LP vote in Connaught-Ulster), but given the much higher margin of error in these and the fact that they are often only partially reported, I had to date decided against making an adjustment based on them, but last week Prof Michael Marsh of TCD did an analysis of the composite of these that would have a very low margin of error. Now, you might say that this is not a good measure of current party support in the respective regions, given the timescale involved, and you’d be right, but that doesn’t actually matter for the purposes of this. What matters with the spreadsheet is that the distribution of the votes is correct, as it simply takes the national totals and distributes them in a way that strives to be the likeliest distribution at their respective party levels in each constituency.
Now, no doubt you’ll disagree with the likely outcomes in terms of seats in a number of constituencies, and that’s grand, I’d not expect two people to agree on all 43 projections, but I’ve a good track record on these before and have been hard on LP in particular to overcome any bias, and am generally assuming a poor split where they’ve a sitting TD running with a new candidate, and transfers from other left candidates no higher than ’07 (and lower when competing with SF). I’m also assuming much poorer transfers from FG to LP this time, given the way the campaign has gone.
There will be a few constituencies where the result will appear to have given a party a seat too much, and most often this is a result of a ‘spare’ quota largely squatting among disparate OTH candidates. For example, in Carlow-Kilkenny FG have 37.8% of the vote or 2.27 quotas, but would go from 1 seat to 3. Similarly in Cavan-Monaghan, where they are projected as getting 39.1%. In both constituencies, they are looking at an OTH vote of 10-13%, without an obvious individual likely to consolidate that into a seat-winning campaign, and while they may not especially favour FG, they would have to favour LP and/or SF very substantially for the benefit not to accrue to Kenny. I don’t believe they will, and there will be a lot of those votes which peter out long before reaching a successful candidate.
In terms of overall analysis, as I said yesterday, I think it’s pretty clear that if the current momentum continues, Kenny will be Taoiseach, and most likely Gilmore will be leader of the opposition. The fallback in FF’s fortunes continues to surprise me, and if it continues they will return a very weakened parliamentary party to DE next month. SF’s drop may only be a statistical blip, but I’d imagine they’ll be eyeing nervously the next poll (rumoured to be Lansdowne/Millward Brown in the Indo next week), as memories of their last minute dip in ’07 are fresh enough. I suspect they may end up on around 10% come polling day, which while down on their previous poll ratings, would still see them return more than 10 seats, and if more fortunate, could even yield mid-teens in their next PP.
Anyways, read them and weep. (I know I did…)
D
| FF | FG | LP | GP | SF | OTH | ||||||||
| Carlow-Kilkenny | 5 | 24.1% | 1 | 37.8% | 3 | 12.7% | 1 | 6.2% | 6.6% | 12.6% | |||
| Cavan-Monaghan | 5 | 16.1% | 1 | 39.1% | 3 | 4.7% | 2.2% | 27.9% | 1 | 10.0% | |||
| Clare | 4 | 20.6% | 1 | 45.5% | 2 | 8.5% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 16.0% | 1 | |||
| Cork E | 4 | 15.9% | 1 | 36.9% | 2 | 31.0% | 1 | 1.8% | 8.7% | 5.6% | |||
| Cork NC | 4 | 9.8% | 40.4% | 2 | 22.0% | 1 | 2.0% | 11.3% | 1 | 14.5% | |||
| Cork NW | 3 | 30.2% | 1 | 46.9% | 2 | 11.0% | 2.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% | ||||
| Cork SC | 5 | 17.3% | 1 | 41.4% | 3 | 17.2% | 1 | 5.0% | 7.3% | 11.8% | |||
| Cork SW | 3 | 22.4% | 1 | 39.7% | 1 | 18.4% | 1 | 5.1% | 7.6% | 6.8% | |||
| Donegal NE | 3 | 21.2% | 1 | 33.1% | 1 | 12.8% | 1.1% | 22.8% | 1 | 9.0% | |||
| Donegal SW | 3 | 19.0% | 29.1% | 1 | 9.2% | 0.9% | 28.0% | 1 | 13.7% | 1 | |||
| Dublin C | 4 | 4.5% | 20.7% | 1 | 31.2% | 1 | 1.5% | 12.1% | 1 | 30.0% | 1 | ||
| Dublin Mid-West | 4 | 9.6% | 31.4% | 2 | 27.0% | 2 | 8.7% | 11.5% | 11.9% | ||||
| Dublin N | 4 | 13.0% | 29.6% | 1 | 22.5% | 1 | 13.7% | 1 | 0.0% | 21.2% | 1 | ||
| Dublin NC | 3 | 11.5% | 39.1% | 1 | 18.3% | 1 | 3.4% | 7.6% | 20.1% | 1 | |||
| Dublin NE | 3 | 7.8% | 33.0% | 1 | 31.7% | 1 | 3.5% | 15.2% | 1 | 8.8% | |||
| Dublin NW | 3 | 12.5% | 21.9% | 1 | 38.2% | 1 | 1.4% | 19.3% | 1 | 6.7% | |||
| Dublin S | 5 | 8.2% | 36.0% | 2 | 23.8% | 1 | 9.2% | 1 | 4.0% | 18.8% | 1 | ||
| Dublin SC | 5 | 4.4% | 22.6% | 1 | 41.6% | 3 | 1.4% | 10.8% | 19.1% | 1 | |||
| Dublin SE | 4 | 11.3% | 28.9% | 1 | 26.3% | 2 | 9.9% | 5.3% | 18.3% | 1 | |||
| Dublin SW | 4 | 9.0% | 32.2% | 1 | 28.6% | 2 | 2.2% | 18.4% | 1 | 9.6% | |||
| Dublin W | 4 | 13.7% | 24.9% | 1 | 34.1% | 2 | 0.7% | 6.9% | 19.8% | 1 | |||
| Dun Laoghaire | 4 | 11.7% | 28.8% | 1 | 31.7% | 2 | 4.6% | 3.6% | 19.6% | 1 | |||
| Galway E | 4 | 13.5% | 51.5% | 2 | 15.7% | 1 | 0.1% | 5.2% | 14.0% | 1 | |||
| Galway W | 5 | 12.2% | 1 | 35.9% | 2 | 15.2% | 1 | 4.3% | 5.8% | 26.6% | 1 | ||
| Kerry N | 3 | 13.3% | 39.3% | 1 | 15.2% | 1 | 1.2% | 24.9% | 1 | 6.0% | |||
| Kerry S | 3 | 15.5% | 31.1% | 1 | 16.9% | 0.5% | 5.9% | 30.1% | 2 | ||||
| Kildare N | 4 | 8.6% | 35.5% | 2 | 29.0% | 1 | 3.3% | 4.8% | 18.7% | 1 | |||
| Kildare S | 3 | 23.1% | 1 | 24.6% | 1 | 29.9% | 1 | 5.5% | 4.6% | 12.3% | |||
| Laois-Offaly | 5 | 27.6% | 1 | 40.2% | 3 | 9.9% | 1 | 1.0% | 9.8% | 11.5% | |||
| Limerick E | 4 | 14.3% | 1 | 39.5% | 2 | 26.8% | 1 | 1.8% | 7.1% | 10.6% | |||
| Limerick W | 3 | 22.8% | 1 | 51.6% | 2 | 18.8% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 3.3% | ||||
| Longford-Westmeath | 4 | 18.1% | 1 | 38.5% | 2 | 32.0% | 1 | 0.5% | 6.2% | 4.7% | |||
| Louth | 5 | 7.2% | 1 | 42.4% | 2 | 14.8% | 1 | 4.7% | 24.7% | 1 | 6.3% | ||
| Mayo | 5 | 16.7% | 1 | 58.7% | 3 | 6.6% | 0.0% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 1 | |||
| Meath E | 3 | 14.7% | 47.0% | 2 | 22.9% | 1 | 2.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% | ||||
| Meath W | 3 | 13.4% | 46.7% | 2 | 13.9% | 1 | 0.9% | 16.4% | 8.7% | ||||
| Roscommon S Leitrim | 3 | 14.3% | 46.8% | 2 | 12.0% | 1.4% | 11.4% | 14.1% | 1 | ||||
| Sligo N Leitrim | 3 | 17.2% | 45.6% | 2 | 8.4% | 1.3% | 14.4% | 1 | 13.1% | ||||
| Tipperary N | 3 | 13.4% | 31.6% | 1 | 15.2% | 1 | 0.6% | 6.1% | 33.1% | 1 | |||
| Tipperary S | 3 | 13.5% | 29.5% | 1 | 14.4% | 0.5% | 5.2% | 36.9% | 2 | ||||
| Waterford | 4 | 11.3% | 42.9% | 2 | 20.8% | 1 | 0.1% | 10.3% | 14.6% | 1 | |||
| Wexford | 5 | 18.9% | 1 | 39.9% | 2 | 21.1% | 1 | 1.4% | 7.2% | 11.6% | 1 | ||
| Wicklow | 5 | 8.7% | 39.4% | 2 | 27.6% | 2 | 3.5% | 9.0% | 11.9% | 1 | |||
| 166 | FF | 17 | FG | 73 | LP | 40 | GP | 2 | SF | 11 | OTH | 23 | |
| % | seats | % of seats | |||||||||||
| FF | 15.0% | 17 | 10.2% | ||||||||||
| FG | 38.0% | 73 | 44.0% | ||||||||||
| LP | 20.0% | 40 | 24.1% | ||||||||||
| GP | 3.0% | 2 | 1.2% | ||||||||||
| SF | 10.0% | 11 | 6.6% | ||||||||||
| oth | 14.0% | 23 | 13.9% |
Red see blue ….
RedC figures for tomorrow’s SBP are out, and they show a relative surge to FG. The figures, which were collected over the period Tuesday-Thursday, were mainly taken after the TV3 debate, and would appear to vindicate those of Enda’s handlers that advised him to stay away from the debate. While FF and LP both fall by amounts within the margin of error, it’s not the direction they want to be going. Indeed, given the rather overwhelming consensus that Martin won the debate, Labour will be relieved not to drop by a more significant margin. SF will be more concerned to be down by the full margin of error, and this may be a squeeze that typically happens to smaller parties in the course of campaign. The figures are as follows;
FF: 15% (-2)
FG: 38% (+3)
LP: 20% (-2)
SF: 10% (-3)
GP: 3% (+1)
OTH:14% (+3)
Projected to seats, and the spreadsheet says that comes out as
FG 73
LP 40
FF 17
SF 11
GP 2
OTH 23
Clearly on these figures FG are starting to edge towards single party govt, perhaps with the support of either FF or like-minded Indos. While the OTH category is the least reliable to project, 8 or 9 of these Indos could be described as centre/centre-right, which would leave them tantalisingly close to a majority, and further movement in this direction would be likely to put them in a position to do such a deal. Indeed, another 4% or so and they could possibly get an overall majority themselves. Of course, there were over two weeks to go at the time of polling, and they can’t keep Enda out of the debates forever, but it’s as good a place as they could have wished for.
LP will be relieved that a rumour on p.ie putting them behind FF in this poll didn’t materialise, and it seems that, barring a car-crash moment, they should stay ahead of FF on these figures, if they lost no ground following Tuesday’s debate. Their task now is to persuade people that there is a reason to vote for them instead of FG, and I suspect that this has been their strategy the last few days.
SF will be nervy. A drop of the full margin of error to 10% puts them where they were before the “Doherty Drive” took off, and they may, as I say, be getting squeezed. They will be hoping for a good performance in the ‘gang of 5’ debate, although it will be hard to get a word in edgeways at that, I would have thought.
GP will be pleased to edge up, and on these figures I see them scraping 2 seats. All very hard to say though – they are a party now living in the margin of error. But at least this poll will give them more, rather than less hope.
And OTH, well they’re up. But which OTH? Only time will tell.
I’ll try to get a round-up posted over the weekend.
Bump!
Folks,
Just a reminder that the first GE prediction competition (for predictions made in the first week) closes at midnight tonight. While there has been about 100 downloads of the spreadsheets (a version 2 added a cpl of features I’d meant to put in version 1) there’s only 10 or so entries received to date, so if you get your entry in now you have an excellent chance of winning.
The only entry identified will be the winning one, so don’t feel inhibited by the possibility of failure!
Best of luck!
D
Red See-Saw…
Well, another RedC poll, this time for the SBP, and it does little to quell my suspicions that their previous effort – which gave FG a record 37% – was a bit of an outlier, and brings them back to the top of the 30-35% band they’ve only veered out of twice since October 2008.
Interestingly, they overlapped. The Paddy Power commission was collected between 29th Jan-1st Feb (i.e. last Saturday to Tuesday), whereas tomorrows effort for the SBP was gathered over 1st-2nd Feb (i.e. Tuesday and Wednesday). Therefore, what we can take from the movement represents the reaction of the population to the very start of the campaign. As you probably know, RedC are usually the kindest polls for FG, and so it will be interesting to see if the trend in this poll is also reflected in any Lansdowne or MRBI polls conducted in the rest of the campaign.
Anyways, the figures (with seat projections in brackets) are as follows;
FF 17% -1 (20)
FG 35% -2 (64)
LP 22% +3 (47)
SF 13% +1 (17)
GP 2% -1 (0)
OTH 11% NC (18)
FG may be disappointed to be down, as some of the giddier posters on p.ie were starting to talk about an overall majority, but this may be a blessing in disguise. As I suggested before, many ppl may be nervous about giving them complete control of the shop, and will be happier with a FG/LP govt than one where say Leo Varadkar could take control.
LP while up will be more relieved than pleased, I think. As I said at the time of the last RedC, they needed to be up to at least 20% in this poll. The fact they’ve done that with a bit to spare means they can avoid panicking, and be happy that whatever they’re doing at the moment, it seems to be working. Given the previous poll was taken when the Joan Burton row was at its peak (the Daily Mail headline having come out on the Saturday evening) the last poll may just have been taken at a bad time, and the polls taken around now may see them make up more ground on FG, which of course is their main aim in the course of the campaign.
SF will be happy, steady as she goes, and the public seem unconcerned by Gerry Adams performance when talking about economics on Radio 1 on Sunday. This suggests that their electorate are voting for an opposition, rather than a govt, and realise that by the time SF are actually in Govt, it will be the next generation that will be making the decisions. Either that, or they think he did well enough. If either is the case, it will be extremely hard to make inroads into that vote, and I have to say that I can’t see them ending up below 10%, and they have the potential to end up mid-teens if they have a good campaign.
GP will continue to be anxious, as they bounce around in the margin of error, and really anyone surviving will do so on a personal, rather than a party basis. I was canvassed by them at the door today, and a drench wind-swept neighbour practically pleaded with me to give Trevor Sargant as high a preference as possible. He didn’t sound confident, and while he may get transfers (including a no.3 or 4 from me), he’ll struggle to get in on these figures.
Perhaps the most surprising finding is that OTH remain at the low 11% level they did in the last RedC, which may suggest that they are losing out, even as high profile Indos become known. The questions is, which OTHs are losing – ULA or the Ross/Somerville’s Profits before People Alliance? I suspect over time it may be both, as Indos will have little influence in a Dáil where the govt will have a massive majority, and ppl will see the contest as being an internal one within what will be the governing coalition, with FF providing “mainstream” opposition, and SF providing an “angrier” alternative.
But time will tell.
Well that’s today’s instalment. There’s tell of constituency polls in tomorrow’s Sindo, if they’re done by a real company (as opposed to Quantum Research) I’ll pass my eye over them and report anything interesting. In the meantime, a reminder that the predictions competition closes midnight on Monday night/Tuesday morning – any late entries will go into the competition for predictions made in the final week.
11 and a half hours!
Well, a third poll in 24 hours, this time from MRBI in tomorrow’s Irish Times. The missus is not pleased ….. 😉
This time, the figures are a lot closer to the Lansdowne poll in this morning’s Indo, and the numbers all companies had last week. Figures (with seat projections from me) are;
FF 15% – 17
FG 33% – 61
LP 24% – 53
SF 12% – 14
GP 1% – 0
OTH 15%-21
FF will be disappointed that the boost they got in the RedC/Paddy Power reported today isn’t borne out here. They may recover, but it appears that if they do it will be a long road back for them.
The more impulsive of FG supporters may be upset to see the 37% figure they got earlier today from RedC contradicted, but at least it’s ahead of the 30% they got in Lansdowne/MB last night, and at 33% is pretty much dead centre of the two. Cannier heads in FG may see this as a good poll, as scaremongering about a majority FG govt with Leo V as Finance Minister will seem less credible.
LP …. well, I’d say relief more than anything. Having got 24% in L/MB, the 19% in RedC was, as I said, not a good result. Had it been corroborated by this poll, they may have started panicking. Now, 2 of the 3 companies have them 24%, and within shooting distance of FG, which they need for their strategy to be credible. Similarly OTH, who had a nasty downwards lurch in the RedC, and they’ll be delighted to be back where other polls, including RedC, had them last week.
SF will be happy – steady as she goes, and GP will be hoping for some sort of game changer, as they are struggling to be even heard at present.
Hopefully no more polls until the SBP/RedC at the weekend – but if you need a ‘statto’ fix, why not enter the prediction competition here ?
D
12 hours
It now appears that even half a day is a long time in politics. Only last night, this mornings Lansdowne/MB poll was recording a drop of 4% in FG’s support, and now a poll run by RedC over (roughly) the same period shows an increase of the same amount. While polls will often disagree on party levels, they really shouldn’t disagree on the trends, which leaves us to conclude that one of these may be, to come extent, a rogue poll. Either that, or FG are in the 33-34% range that both companies had them last week, and the two ratings of 30% and 37% are outliers at the limit of the margin of error (which is statistically unlikely, but not impossible). Both companies have a comparable record in predicting General Election results, and so, while many partisans will choose the company that gives a higher rating for their party (particularly on p.ie), and some pessimists may choose the lower, I’m personally inclined to think that the average of the two ratings is the most reliable of the lot.
Only time (and further polling evidence) will tell.
Anyways, the RedC/Paddy Power. Poll ratings (and seat projections) are as follows;
FF 18%-26
FG 37%-72
LP 19%-34
SF 12%-15
GP 3%-1
OTH 11%-18
Starkest movements here (only ones outside the margin of error) are FG up 4%, and OTH down 4%. It’s hard to be sure what is behind this movement, given how little has happened in the intervening period. Perhaps there was a cohort out there that was awaiting McWilliams to launch his “New Ireland” movement as a political force, and having seen him decline to do so are going to FG. But 37% is the highest in RedC for an eternity, and they have been 30-36% in their ratings since October 2008. If this isn’t an outlyer but represents a sudden trend towards FG, talk of an overall majority for FG, or at least a minority FG administration with support from FF or “independents” such as Shane Ross, can’t be discounted.
FF will also be pleased at this poll finding. Despite not enjoying any significant new leaders bounce in last week’s RedC poll (and polling an identical 16% in the L/MB polls) they appear to have started making headway since then. This would be unusual, as it would be more normal for the party to get a bigger bounce immediately upon changing leader and then fall back a bit, and it’s possible that it means that Cowen’s continued position as Taoiseach means that it is only dawning on some voters that there has in fact been a change of leadership in the party. If this is the case, they may make further gains in the coming week.
LP are down, and while it is in the margin or error, they will be concerned, as it is one of a number of such polls in RedC, with a cumulative figure that is very much outside the margin of error. They need the launch of their campaign to start moving them I the opposite direction if they are to have the sort of election that will break new ground for them. Only yesterday they were at 24% in Lansdowne, and a 5% differential will make them nervous, particularly those candidates who had expected to be competing with FG for the last seat. I understand the SBP will have weekly RedC polls form now on, and Labour will be looking to be back up to at least 20% in that if their nerves are to be steadied, as FF are now just 1% behind them. Even if they stabilise at 19%, the next poll won’t be good news for them.
SF will be satisfied, I suspect, at holding their support relatively level, and GP would no doubt be happier with the 3% recorded here than the 1% yesterday. But all those supporting candidates in the OTH category will be nervously wondering what the big drop in support for them means.
Finally, as I said, I’d be inclined to consider the average of the two polling company figures as, most likely, closest to where we’re at at the moment (certainly it’s closer to the polls that were out before these two). This, when fed into the spreadsheet comes out at;
FF 17% – 19
FG 33.5% – 63
LP 21.5% – 45
SF 12.5% – 18
GP 2% – 0
OTH 13.5% – 21
I suspect that these totals are going to move a lot over the next 3 weeks…..
GE prediction competition
Folks,
As promised, I’m running two prediction competitions for the forthcoming GE. The first will be based on predictions made in the first week of the campaign, and entries will be taken from 1st-7th February (Irish time!). Competitors will give their best estimate of the seats (and percentage vote share) in each constituency. The winner will be the entrant who is least out in terms of total seats for each party (e.g. if 2 too many for FF and 2 too few for FG, you are 4 out). If there is a tie, it will go to whoever was least out in percentage shares of the vote in each constituency. The winner will not gain any great riches for him/herself, but a small (€10) donation to a charity chosen by them, really just something to make it interesting. A similar prize awaits the winner of a second such competition I’ll arrange for the last week of the campaign (with entries taken up to the close of the polls).
Entries should be entered into the spreadsheet downloadable at this address (you may be asked to wait 20 seconds before downloading), and when you complete this, please save it and send to irishpollingreport@gmail.com . Needless to say, I’ll not use your details for anything other than the competition.
If you have any problems downloading the spreadsheet (or making it work) drop me a mail and I’ll do my best to sort it out.
Good luck!
D
And they’re off!
Well, the Dail has just been dissolved, and the polls are starting to come thick and fast. The Indo has commissioned a poll from Lansdowne/Millward Browne, only days after the Sindo had them do one, and while it’s out tomorrow, RTE announced the result tonight. It’s good for SF, bad for FG, but not much else to see.
FF 16% (NC)
FG 30% (-4)
LP 24% (NC)
SF 13% (+3)
GP 1% (NC)
OTH 16% (+1)
It has to be said that the last L/MB poll had SF lower than other surveys, and so it’s possible that this was an outlier for them, being corrected here. Either way, it’s good for them. FG on the other hand will be disappointed to see a drop outside the margin of error, the first recorded in a poll at the start of a campaign, and they’ll be hoping that this is just a blip. Cetainly, on p.ie FG supporters have been convinced that they are pulling away from LP in public support, and so they’ll be concerned to see a poll suggesting that their lead over Gilmore’s party has been reduced by two-fifths over the course of a single weekend – one which they thought was good for them (and/or bad for LP).
Everything else is m.o.e. stuff.
In terms of seats, I’ve put it through the spreadsheet, and it give the following results (change on the Sindo results in brackets);
FF 17 (-2)
FG 58 (-4)
LP 51 (-3)
SF 18 (+10)
GP 0
OTH 22 (-1)
As you can see, the big rise in SF (as they pass a tipping point) hits LP almost as much as FG in seats, despite them being stable in votes – this is a result of a lot of seats being between LP and SF, and while LP gain a couple of seats from FG on these figures, they lose more to SF, relative to the Sindo poll.
RedC poll out tomorrow for Paddy Power – I’ll try to get the prediction competition up in the next 24 hours.
D
Go!
Hi folks,
Still no sign of an Irish Times poll, so I’ve done a constituency-by-constituency projection based on the average of the RedC and Lansdowne/MB polls published yesterday. Knowing my luck, they’ll come out about 10 minutes after I post this….. As ever, if you spot a mistake, please let me know.
For those of you who might be new here, this projection is based on a spreadsheet I’ve developed that extrapolates national votes to local areas. It’s not a portal to the future, and in some areas, parties are likely to outperform the national swing, and in other areas under-perform it, but this shows roughly what they may be deviating from, and largely those differences should cancel one another out.
I’ve made a few adjustments in the base distributions to acknowledge the change of leadership in FF, reducing the FF base vote in Laois-Offaly and increased it in Cork, with a double boost in CSC. Also a couple of tweaks where local factors may impact (e.g. Shane Ross in Dublin South), so the distribution has changed a tad.
Having made these changes, the headline figures are;
FF 16% (19 seats)
FG 33.5% (62 seats)
LP 22.5% (50 seats)
SF 11.5% (13 seats)
GP 1.5% (0 seats)
OTH 15% (22 seats)
Carlow-Kilkenny (5 seats)
2007
FF 47.7% 3 seats – John McGuiness, Bobby Aylward, MJ Nolan
FG 29.6% 1 seat – Phil Hogan
LP 9.4%
GP 8.0% 1 seat- Mary White
SF 3.8%
OTH 1.6%
Local developments:
John McGuiness has distanced himself from the FF party, and his colleague MJ Nolan has announced that he will not run in 2011.
Likely candidates:
FF: McGuiness, Aylward, Jennifer Murnane
FG: Hogan, John-Paul Phelan, Pat Deering
LP: Anne Phelan, Des Hurley
GP: White
SF: Kathleen Funchion, John Cassin
OTH: Conor McLiam (ULA)
Projection based on poll
FF 26.8% (2 seats)
FG 37.5% (2 seats)
LP 16.6% (1 seat)
GP 4.3%
SF 8.6%
OTH 3.1%
FF hold on to 2 of their 3 seats here, with the other falling to LP. Depending on the internal SF transfer (and potentially the eveness of the LP vote) FF2 just holds off SF1, FG3 or LP2.
Cavan-Monaghan (5 seats)
2007 result
FF 37.8% 3 seats – Rory O’Hanlon (C.C.), Brendan Smith, Margaret Conlon
FG 31.2% 1 seat – Seymour Crawford
LP 1.2%
GP 3.6%
SF 20.0% 1 seat – Caoimhghin O’Caolain
OTH 6.2%
Local developments:
Reverts to 5 elected seats as Ceann Comhairle is now from Louth. O’Hanlon and Crawford are retiring. FG field 4 non-TDs in what may be some sort of record.
Likely candidates:
FF Smith, Conlan
FG Joe O’Reilly, Heather Humphries, Peter McVitty, Sean Conlan
LP Liam Hogan
SF O’Caolain + Kathryn Reilly
OTH Johnathon Rainey, John McGuirk
Projection based on poll
FF 16.5% (1 seat)
FG 35.5% (2 seats)
LP 6.1%
GP 1.3%
SF 30.4% (2 seats)
OTH 10.2%
FF hold on to one seat, probably Smith. Reilly makes a gain, with Humphries holding Crawford’s seat.
Clare (4 seats)
2007 result
FF 44.0% 2 seats – Timmy Dooley, Tom Kileen
FG 35.2% 2 seats – Joe Carey, Pat Breen
LP 1.6%
GP 5.1%
SF 3.4%
OTH 10.7%
Local developments:
Popular FF TD and Defence Minister Tony Kileen is retiring. The intentions of former IND FF TD James Breen who lost his seat in 2007 are unclear, but I’m assuming that he’s running. Former Independent MEP candidate Michael McNamara who polled 10,000 Clare votes in 2009 has joined the LP and will be seeking a seat.
Likely candidates:
FF Dooley, John Hillery
FG Carey, Breen, Tony Mulcahy
LP Michael McNamara
GP Brian Meaney
OTH James Breen, Jim Connolly
Projection based on poll
FF 21.8% 1 seat
FG 42.3% 2 seats
LP 10.6%
GP 2.5%
SF 7.2%
OTH 15.7% 1 seat
A scramble for Kileen’s seat, with it falling to Indo Breen on these figures, from McNamara. NB I’m told that SF aren’t contesting here (which appears strange, but there you go) – not clear at this stage what effect that might have.
Cork E (4 seats)
2007 result
FF 38.0% 2 seats – Michael Ahern, Ned O’Keefe
FG 30.9% 1 seat – David Stanton
LP 20.9% 1 seat – Sean Sherlock
GP 2.9%
SF 6.8%
OTH 0.5%
Local developments:
A population of c. 4,250 moves out for CNC. Both LP and FG will be hopeful of picking up a FF seat here. Ned O’Keefe has moved on, with son Kevin hoping to hold the seat in his place.
Likely candidates:
FF Ahern, O’Keefe
FG Stanton, Tom Barry, Pa O’Driscoll
LP Sherlock, John Mulvihill Snr
SF Sandra McLennan
OTH Paul O’Neill
Projection based on poll
FF 16.3%
FG 33.5% 2 seats
LP 34.9% 2 seats
GP 1%
SF 10.2%
OTH 4.1%
FF drop 2 seats, with leakage seeing LP and FG both nipping in, in part on SF transfers. Quite close though, and better SF-FF transfers could see one of the 2 FF candidates hold on.
Cork NC (4 seats)
2007 result
FF 35.7% 2 seats – Billy Kelleher, Noel O’Flynn
FG 25.6% 1 seat – Bernard Allen
LP 12.3% 1 seat – Kathleen Lynch
GP 3.6%
SF 8.2%
OTH 12.6%
Local developments:
Boundary revisions see the new voters from Cork E (above) and also a transfer of a population of c.4,300 from Cork NW, making it a slightly more rural constituency. Noel O’Flynn and Bernard Allen have both retired, the latter being replaced by popular former Mayor Dara Murphy. Lynch has a strong running mate in John Gilroy
Likely candidates:
FF Kelleher
FG Murphy, Pat Burton
LP Lynch, Gilroy
SF Johnathon O’Brien
ULA/SP Mick Barry,
OTH Padraig O’Sullivan, Ted Tyan (WP), Fergus O’Rourke
Projection based on poll
FF 8.3%
FG 32.8% 2 seats
LP 25.0% 1 seat
GP 0.3%
SF 12.2%
OTH 21.3% 1 seat
Comments
FF lose both seats, with one going to FG, and the other to the winner of a scramble between LP2, SF and SP. It looks like SP to me on these figures, but both LP2 and SF are competitive, and LP2 could even be elected in addition to SP if they split the vote well (at the expense of FG2).
Cork NW (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 53.05% 2 seats – Michael Moynihan, Batt O’Keefe
FG 38.42% 1 seat – Michael Creed
LP 4.91%
GP 3.62%
Local developments:
Batt O’Keefe is retiring.
Likely candidates:
FF Moynihan
FG Creed, Derry Canty, Aine Collins
LP Martin Coughlan
GP Mark Collins
SF Des O’Grady
ULA/PBP Anne Foley
Projection based on poll
FF 32.7% 1 seat
FG 43.1% 2 seats
LP 14.2%
GP 1.3%
SF 2.7%
OTH 6%
FG take a seat from FF, with LP too far behind to pull them in, even with SF and GP transfers.
Cork SC (5 seats)
2007 result
FF 44.28% 2 seats – Michael Martin, Michael McGrath
FG 28.41% 2 seats – Simon Coveney, Deirdre Clune
LP 9.25% 1 seat – Ciaran Lynch
GP 8.37%
SF 5.11%
OTH 4.57%
Local developments:
Micheál Martin is now leader of FF. Former GP Cllr Chris O’Leary is the SF candidate this time out
Likely candidates:
FF Martin, McGrath
FG Clune, Coveney, Jerry Buttimer
LP Lynch, Paula Desmond
GP Dan Boyle
SF O’Leary
Projection based on poll
FF 19.2% 1 seat
FG 37.2% 2 seats
LP 22.7% 2 seats
GP 2.2%
SF 9.5%
OTH 9.1%
Even Martin taking the leadership (which I give them a one-fifth bonus for) isn’t enough to give FF 2 seats, although it makes Martin’s previously didgy seat very safe. On these figures, Desmond would nudge ahead of O’leary and hold off FG3, but very close, and I’d not write off the former GP man on the basis of this.
Cork SW (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 42.60% 1 seat –Christy O’Sullivan
FG 36.00% 2 seats – Jim O’Keefe, PJ Sheehan
LP 9.60%
GP 6.70%
SF 5.10%
Local developments:
FG’s 2 TDs – Jim O’Keefe and PJ Sheehan are retiring
Likely candidates:
FF O’Sullivan, Denis O’Donovan
FG Jim Daly, Noel Harrington
LP Michael McCarthy
SF Paul Hayes
GP Jennifer Sleeman (although read a rumour on Twitter today that there may be a question mark over her candidacy)
OTH David McInerney, Trich Deeney, John Kearney
Projection based on poll
FF 24.5% 1 seat
FG 37.1% 1 seat
LP 22.1% 1 seat
GP 3%
SF 8.9%
OTH 4.5%
LP take one of the FG seats being retired . FF hold on to the seat.
Donegal NE (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 50.3% 2 seats – Neal Blaney, Jim McDaid
FG 22.6% 1 seat – Joe McHugh
LP 1.8%
GP 1.4%
SF 17.5%
OTH 6.5%
Local developments:
Jim McDaid has retired, and Blaney isn’t running for personal reasons. Former Indo, Cllr Jimmy Harte, has joined LP and will be their candidate. 4 electoral divisions (pop of 2,351) in the former Stranorlar Rural district are being transfered to South West.
Likely candidates:
FF Charlie McConalogue
FG McHugh
LP Harte
SF Padraig MacLoughlain
OTH Ryan Stewart
Projection based on poll
FF 25% 1 seat
FG 28.6% 1 seat
LP 12.9%
GP 0.6%
SF 24% 1 seat
OTH 9.1%
As predicted by most punters, I think, McDaid’s seat goes to SF. FF hold on to 1 seat, although if geogrpahy becomes an issue, he may struggle, with MacLoughlain also based in Inishowen. Hard to see either FF or SF fail to take a seat on these figures, though, although Harte will try to use his Letterkenny base to his best advantage.
Donegal SW (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 50.5% 2 seats – Mary Coughlan, Pat “The Cope” Gallagher
FG 23.0% 1 seat –Dinny McGinlay
LP 2.8%
GP 1.5%
SF 21.2%
OTH 1.0%
Local developments:
Gallagher has gone to the EP, and SF’s Pearse Doherty won the by-election by a country mile. As already mentioned, rural Stranorlar districts are moved from North East
Likely candidates:
FF Coughlan, Brian O’Domhnaill
FG McGinley
LP Frank McBrearty
SF Doherty
OTH Thomas Pringle, Ann Sweeney
Projection based on poll
FF 18.7%
FG 24.9% 1 seat
LP 10.2%
GP 0.5%
SF 28.8% 1 seat
OTH 16.9% 1 seat
Having lost 1 seat to SF in the by-election, FF lose a second, this time Tanaiste Mary Coughlan msot likely losing out to Indo Thomas Pringle, although McBreaty may push closer than expected if he does well in the new Stranorlar districts on his doorstep, coming in from North-East.
Dublin C (4 seats)
2007 result
FF 44.5% 2 seats – Bertie Ahern, Cyprian Brady
FG 9.5%
LP 12.6% 1 seat – Joe Costello
GP 5.8%
SF 9.2%
OTH 18.5% 1 seat Tony Gregory
Local developments:
Bertie Ahern is no longer Taoiseach and not expected to run. Tony Gregory died, and Maureen O’Sullivan won the by-election by a comfortable margin. FF at war.
Likely candidates:
FF Brady, Mary FitzPatrick
FG Paschal Donoghue
LP Costello, Aine Clancy
SF Mary-Lou McDonald
OTH Maureen O’Sullivan, Cieran Perry, Christy Burke
Projection based on poll
FF 5.7%
FG 15.1% 1 seat
LP 33.5% 1 seats
GP 1.3%
SF 13.2%
OTH 31.2% 2 seats
FF collapse, and while it’s possible that they could out-perform this if FitzPatrick plays the maverick card, it’s hard to see them do so to the extent that they hold a seat. On these figures, Donoghue’s dream finally comes true. The other FF seat is taken by and Indo (possibly Perry who haas a very strong base in Cabra and comes from the same republican/left gene poll that MLMcD is hoping will vote SF. Clancy misses out by a very small margin, largely as a result of poor vote management (I’m anticipating she gets no more than 33% of LP vote, but needs closer to 38% or so).
Dublin Mid-West
2007 result
FF 33.0% 1 seat – John Curran
FG 12.0%
LP 10.9% 1 seat – Joanna Tuffy
GP 10.8% 1 seat – Paul Gogarty
SF 9.3%
OTH 11.5% 1 seat- Mary Harney
Local developments:
Mary Harney is expected to retire. Ex-Indo Cllr Derek Keating has joined FG ticket with fellow 2007 hopeful Frances FitzGerald. LP have selected former Mayor Robert Dowds to their ticket alongside sitting TD Joanna Tuffy, and SF candidate will be former Belfast City Cllr Eoin O’Broin. Other than that, not much…. Oh yes, and rival ULA campaigns…..
Likely candidates:
FF Curran
FG Keating, Fitzgerlad
LP Tuffy, Dowds
GP Gogarty
SF O’Broin
OTH Gino Kenny (PBP/ULA), Robert Connolly (SP/ULA), Michael Finnegan (WP)
Projection based on poll
FF 10%
FG 26.3% 1 seat
LP 31.5% 2 seats
GP 4.3%
SF 14.9% 1 seat
OTH 13.1%
FG, LP and SF to take a Govt seat each from FF, GP and Mary Harney.
Dublin N (4 seats)
2007 result
FF 42.1% 2 seats – Michael Kennedy, Dara O’Brien
FG 14.3% 1 seat – James Reilly
LP 9.6%
GP 16.7% 1 seat- Trevor Sargant
SF 2.7%
OTH 14.9%
Local developments:
A large chunk of Swords (pop c. 12,800) has left for Dublin West, and another area around Portmarnock (pop. c. 9,000) goes to NE, making life harder for Kennedy and SP hopeful Clare Daly. Sargant is no longer GP leader.
Likely candidates:
FF Kennedy, O’Brien
FG Reilly, Alan Farrell
LP Brendan Ryan, Tom Kelleher
GP Sargant
OTH Daly (SP/ULA)
Projection based on poll
FF 12.7%
FG 24.2% 1 seat
LP 25.7% 2 seats
GP 6.8%
SF 6.4%
OTH 24.1% 1 seat
FF lose both seats, one to LP and the other to SP, with LP taking a second from Sargant.
Dublin NC (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 44.0% 1 seat – Sean Haughey
FG 25.6% 1 seat – Richard Bruton
LP 7.3%
GP 5.2%
SF 3.8%
OTH 14.2% 1 seat – Finian McGrath
Local developments:
An area around Edenmore (pop. c. 2,750) arrives from NE. Callelly gone. Former GP candidate Browen Maher now in the LP
Likely candidates:
FF Haughey
FG Bruton , Naoise O’Muiri
LP Aodhan O’Riordan
GP Donna Cooney
SF Helen McCormack
OTH McGrath, John Lyons (ULA), Paul Clarke
Projection based on poll
FF 12.2%
FG 32.7% 1 seat
LP 21.4% 1 seat
GP 1.1%
SF 8.6%
OTH 24% 1 seat
LP take a seat from FF, ending the Haughey dynasty.
Dublin NE (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 39.7% 1 seat – Michael Woods
FG 22.9% 1 seat – Terence Flanagan
LP 15.2% 1 seat – Tommy Broughan
GP 6.7%
SF 13.3%
OTH 2.1%
Local developments:
As mentioned above, new area in Portmarnock, but losing voters in Edenmore. Killian Forde has left SF for LP, but failed to get the nomination ahead of Broughan and Sean Kenny (the ticket that took 2 seats in 1992!).
Likely candidates:
FF Averil Power
FG Flanagan
LP Broughan, Kenny
GP David Healy
SF Larry O’Toole
OTH Brian Greene (ULA)
Projection based on poll
FF 9.5%
FG 28.2% 1 seat
LP 38% 2 seats
GP 1.5%
SF 17.8%
OTH 5%
On these figures, veteran slug-fest between Larry O’Toole and Sean Kenny favours the LP man, but very close – both are very much in it, and FF transfers likely to decide it.
Dublin NW (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 48.8% 2 seats – Pat Carey, Noel Ahern
FG 10.0%
LP 20.3% 1 seat – Roisin Shorthall
GP 2.8%
SF 15.7%
OTH 2.4%
Local developments:
De Brudder is retiring. Apparently worried that Bill Tormey doesn’t send out the appropriate image for FG in DNW, they have added Clontarf-based LM Gerry Breen to the ticket, which should be good for a laugh – prepare to hear about a wave of Romanian drug-pushing prostitutes on a crime spree in a PR from our first citizen of the capital…… LP have added John Lyons to a ticket that will be aiming for 2 seats.
Likely candidates:
FF Carey,
FG Tormey, Breen
LP Shorthall, Lyons
SF Dessie Ellis
OTH Andrew Keegan (PBP-ULA), Daniel Boyne, John Dunne (WP)
Projection based on poll
FF 12.6%
FG 16.7%
LP 42.7% 2 seats
GP 0.0%
SF 21.6% 1 seat
OTH 6.4%
FF lose both seats, one to SF and the other to LP.
Dublin S (5 seats)
2007 result
FF 41.3% 2 seats – Seamus Brennan, Tom Kitt
FG 27.3% 2 seats – Olivia Mitchell, Alan Shatter
LP 10.4%
GP 11.1% 1 seat – Eamon Ryan
SF 3.0%
OTH 6.9%
Local developments:
Seamus Brennan has passed away, and politically George Lee came and did the same. Tom Kitt insists that he is retiring. A re-drawing of the constituency has seen a largely (upper) middle class area (pop c. 11,700) move in from Dun Laoghaire, and this may prove good hunting grounds for Shane Ross (running on a “Sunday” Independent ticket…) and Peter “Bankers” Matthews, possibly to the detrimnet of Alan Shatter, who will surely know there aren’t 4 FG gene-pool seats here.
Likely candidates:
FF Maria Corrigan
FG Mitchell, Shatter, Matthews
LP Alex White, Aidan Culhane
GP Ryan
Projection based on poll
FF 9.1%
FG 31.6% 2 seats
LP 28.7% 2 seats
GP 4.6%
SF 6.1%
OTH 19.9% 1 seat
Both FF seats go, one to Ross and the other to LP, who also nick in to take Eamon Ryan’s seat. Biggest danger for LP is getting a good split in the vote here, as Aidan Culhane was added very late to the ticket, and failure to do so could see them lose out.
Dublin SC (5 seats)
2007 result
FF 33.1% 2 seats – Sean Ardagh, Michael Mulcahy
FG 14.4% 1 seat – Catherine Byrne
LP 21.1% 1 seat – Mary Upton
GP 5.8%
SF 10.2% 1 seat – Aengus O’Snodaigh
OTH 15.5%
Local developments:
Sean Ardagh is retiring, as is Mary Upton, whose nephew Henry, son of the late Pat Upton, will join Eric Byrne (very narrow loser here in ’07) and Micahel Conaghan as LP try to pull off 3 seats. Their biggest difficulty is likely to be ULA Cllr Joan Collins, who will be supported by former opponent Brid Smith of the SWP/PBP.
Likely candidates:
FF Mulcahy
FG Byrne, Ruairi McGinley, Colm Brophy
LP Byrne, Upton, Conaghan
GP Oisin O’hAlmhain
SF O’Snodaigh
OTH Collins (ULA), Gerry Kelly
Projection based on poll
FF 4.6%
FG 17.9% 1 seats
LP 44% 2 seats
GP 1.0%
SF 12.3% 1 seats
OTH 20.2% 1 seats
FF lose both seats, one to LP, who narrowly lose out to Joan Collins for the last seat. Still, a sign of the times that they would go from narrowly missing a second seat to narrowly missing a third. No doubt this would be a happy outcome for Collins, who was expelled from LP when in the Militant Tendency. LP may yet rue not running Rebecca Moynihan, although one suspects that her day will come.
Dublin SE (4 seats)
2007 result
FF 28.7% 1 seat – Chris Andrews
FG 18.6% 1 seat – Lucinda Creighton
LP 16.7% 1 seat – Ruairi Quinn
GP 13.8% 1 seat – John Gormley
SF 4.7%
OTH 17.4%
Local developments:
Michael McDowell has retired, having got his cards from the electorate. Gormley has become GP leader. Paul Somerville takes time out from his busy schedule to tell us how to do stuff, and Mannix Flynn will be hoping to perform well.
Likely candidates:
FF Andrews
FG Creighton, Eoghan Murphy
LP Quinn, Kevin Humphries
GP Gormley
SF Daithi O’Doolan
OTH Somerville, Flynn, Annette Mooney (ULA)
Projection based on poll
FF 11.5%
FG 21.8% 1 seat
LP 30% 2 seats
GP 5.3%
SF 6.7%
OTH 24.7% 1 seat
On these figures, FF and GP lose their seats to Humprhies and INDs respectively, although LP need to split vote to a good extent to achieve this (their LEs record here suggests that they can do this)
Dublin SW (4 seats)
2007 result
FF 39.3% 2 seats – Conor Lenihan, Charlie O’Connor
FG 20.0% 1 seat – Brian Hayes
LP 20.0% 1 seat – Pat Rabbitte
GP 3.7%
SF 12.2%
OTH 4.8%
Local developments:
Rabbitte is no longer LP leader. None of the last 3 poll toppers were elected here in the following election, which may cause Conor Lenihen some anxiety, and he is reputedly seeking to run in Dub Sth.
Likely candidates:
FF O’Connor, Lenihan
FG Hayes
LP Rabitte, Eamon Maloney
SF Sean Crowe
OTH Mick Murphy (SP/ULA)
Projection based on poll
FF 9%
FG 26% 1 seat
LP 32.2% 2 seats
GP 0.4%
SF 19.6% 1 seat
OTH 12.7%
Collapse in FF vote, sees LP and SF gain a seat each.
Dublin W (4 seats)
2007 result
FF 37.5% 1 seat – Brian Lenihan
FG 20.4% 1 seat – Leo Varadkar
LP 17.1% 1 seat – Joan Burton
GP 3.8%
SF 4.8%
OTH 16.5%
Local developments:
Brian Lenihan’s health problems are likely to result in a sympathy vote, and so I’ve increased the base FF vote in the spreadsheet to 50%. Joe Higgins will run, following his successful foray in the recent EP elections. An additional seat, with voters moved in from Swords from Dublin North.
Likely candidates:
FF Lenihan, David McGuinness
FG Varadkar, Kieran Dennison
LP Burton, Patrick Nulty
SF Paul Donnelly
OTH Higgins (SP/ULA)
Projection based on poll
FF 13.3%
FG 19.1% 1 seat
LP 36.4% 2 seats
GP 0.0%
SF 7.4%
OTH 23.8% 1 seat
Lenihen appears to be in serious trouble, given the positive adjustment made to the FF base vote. On this, he’d lose his seat, with this and the additional seat going to LP2 and SP.
Dun Laoghaire (4 seats)
2007 result
FF 34.9% 2 seats – Mary Hanafin, Barry Andrews
FG 23.6% 1 seat – Sean Barrett
LP 16.0% 1 seat – Eamon Gilmore
GP 7.7% 1 seat – Ciaran Cuffe
SF 2.2%
OTH 15.7%
Local developments:
One less seat to go round with the boundary review, and a chunk of the consitiuency (largely FG, FF and PD voting) has left for Dub Sth. Eamon Gilmore has become LP leader, and has a high profile running mate in Ivana Bacik, who will challenge strongly for a seat, although FG’s Mary Mitchell-O’Connor and ULA’s Richard Boyd-Barrett will both be hopeful of beating her to it. 3 Ministers in Hanafin, Barry Andrews and Ciaran Cuffe are all up against it.
Likely candidates:
FF Hanafin, Andrews
FG Barrett, Mitchell-O’Connor
LP Gilmore, Bacik
GP Cuffe
OTH Richard Boyd-Barrett (SWP/ULA), Victor Boyhan, Raymond Whitehead
Projection based on poll
FF 11.7%
FG 23.3% 1 seat
LP 34.8% 2 seats
GP 1.9%
SF 4.2%
OTH 24% 1 seat
FF running both TDs lose both, one to LP and one to the constituency revision, with RBB taking Cuffe’s seat. While FG would fancy their chances, there appear to be insufficient transfers for them to take the seat, with GP and SF voters likely to lean left with their preferences, and FF unlikely to go anywhere in particular.
Galway E (4 seats)
2007 result
FF 39.7% 2 seats – Noel Tracey, Michael Kitt
FG 39.1% 2 seats – Paul Connaughton, Ulick Burke
LP 3.1%
GP 1.9%
SF 3.2%
OTH 13.0%
Local developments:
FG TDs Paul Connaghton and Ulick Burke have both announced thier retirements, and so interim “let’s get this party ended” PD leader Ciaran Cannon seems likely to be in the next Dail. Paddy McHugh is unlikely to run, but another indo (Sean Canney) is likely to take his place on the ticket.
Likely candidates:
FF Kitt, Michael Dolan
FG Cannon, Tom McHugh, Paul Connaughton, Jimmy McClern
LP Colin Keaveny, Lorraine Higgins
SF Dermot Connolly
OTH Canney, Tim Broderick
Projection based on poll
FF 15.6% 1 seat
FG 48.1% 2 seats
LP 13.9% 1 seats
GP 0.0%
SF 6.6%
OTH 15.8%
A tough one to call, given the multiplicity of candidates, but I have SF and GP transfers pushing LP1 ahead of FG3, to see him/her take enough FG transfers on the election of FG2 to beat Canney for the last seat, although Canney could still hold off FF, particularly if he does well on SF transfers. Very tight.
Galway W (5 seats)
2007 result
FF 37.1% 2 seats – Eamon O’Cuiv, Frank Fahey
FG 20.4% 1 seat – Padraig McCormack
LP 11.1% 1 seat – Michael D
GP 5.5%
SF 3.0%
OTH 23.0% 1 seat – Noel Grealish (PD)
Local developments:
Noel Grealish is now an Indo. Michael D and Padraig McC won’t run, and Margaret Cox looks unlikely to stand – I’ve added most of her vote to the FF base figures.
Likely candidates:
FF O Cuiv, Fahey, Crowe
FG Fidelma Healy-Eames, Brian Walsh, Sean Kyne, Seosamh Ó Laoi
LP Derek Nolan
GP Niall O’Brollachain
OTH Grealish, Catherine Connolly, Eamonn Walsh, Mike Cubbard
Projection based on poll
FF 12.1% 1 seat
FG 29.1% 1 seat
LP 17.9% 1 seat
GP 1.6%
SF 6.6%
OTH 32.7% 2 seats
On these figures, FF lose a seat to Catherine Connolly, with Nolan holding on to Michael Dee’s seat at the first attempt. FG take one seat, but FG2 narrowly loses out to Dev Og.
Kerry N – W Limerick (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 31.3% 1 seat – Tom McEllistrom
FG 32.3% 1 seat – Jimmy Deenihan
LP 10.9%
GP 1.9%
SF 20.4% 1 seat – Martin Ferris
OTH 3.2%
Local developments:
Boundary changes are significnat enough to warrant a name change for the old Kerry Nth – and area with a population of c.5,000 moves to kerry Sth, with a chunk of Western Limericak (pop. c. 13,000) moves intot he new constituency. Arthur Spring seeking to bring a third generation of the dynasty to Kerry North
Likely candidates:
FF McEllistrom, Norma Foley
FG Deenihan, John Sheahan
LP Spring
SF Ferris
Projection based on poll
FF 13.4%
FG 35.1% 1 seat
LP 14.8% 1 seat
GP 0.6%
SF 28.1% 1 seat
OTH 8%
FF lose a seat, but on these figures LP heavily dependent on transfers, and vulernable to a FG surge.
Kerry S (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 40.7% 1 seat – John O’Donoghue
FG 25.1% 1 seat -Tom Sheahan
LP 13.5%
GP 1.9%
SF 3.5%
OTH 15.4% 1 seat – Jackie Healy-Rae
Local developments:
As mentioned above, new voters arrive from Kerry Nth. The cap is being passed on to the next generation, with Michael Healy-Rae standing in his father’s stead. FF member Tom Fleming recently announced his intention to run as an Indo, and this will test how much of that vote will stay in the family fold. LP have decided against a dynastic candidate, by fielding a non-Moynihan, and it will be interesting to see how much of that vote was LP.
Likely candidates:
FF O’Donoghue
FG Sheahan, Seamus FitzGerald
LP Marie Maloney
SF Lynn Ni Bhaoigheallain
OTH Michael Healy-Rae, Tom Fleming, Michael Gleeson
Projection based on poll
FF 16.7%
FG 28% 1 seat
LP 19.1% 1 seat
GP 0.6%
SF 6.6%
OTH 28.9% 1 seat
LP re-take the seat, at the expense(s) of the Bull O’Donoghue.
Kildare N (4 seats)
2007 result
FF 39.5% 2 seats – Aine Brady, Michael Fitzpatrick
FG 21.2% 1 seat – Bernard Durkan
LP 17.4% 1 seat – Emmet Stagg
GP 4.9%
SF 2.4%
OTH 14.5%
Local developments:
A small transfer of population (c.1,300) to Kildare Sth. Michael FitzPatrick has been seriously ill for some time, but he has been reported as seeking re-election, although a 2-candidate strategy may sink FF’s hopes of a single seat here, and Martin may intervene.
Likely candidates:
FF Brady , Fitzpatrick
FG Durkan, Anthony Lawlor
LP Stagg, John McGinley
SF Martin Kelly
GP Shane FitzGerald
OTH Catherine Murphy, Eric Doyle-Higgins, Bart Murphy
Projection based on poll
FF 8.6%
FG 28.9% 1 seat
LP 32.6% 2 seats
GP 1.0%
SF 5.5%
OTH 23.3% 1 seat
FF lose both seats, one to LP and one to Murphy. SF transfers are enough to ward off FG’s ambitions for a 2nd seat, unless LP vote split very badly.
Kildare S (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 50.4% 2 seats – Sean Power, Sean O’Fearghal
FG 17.2%
LP 20.7% 1 seat – Jack Wall
GP 6.2%
OTH 5.6%
Local developments:
Former Minister Sean Power has tried to put some distance between himself and the FF leadership. Jack Wall has stoutly resisted to date having to accept a running mate, and is believed to be hoping to pass the seat on to his son the following election, although I understnad that internal polls are resulting in pressure for him to accept a running mate. FG looking to win back a seat here for the first time since Alan Dukes was their local man.
Likely candidates:
FF Power, O’Fearghal
FG Martin Heydon
LP Wall
SF Jason Turner
OTH Paddy Kennedy, Clifford Reid
Projection based on poll
FF 27.8% 1 seat
FG 25% 1 seat
LP 33.5% 1 seat
GP 3.2%
SF 2.7%
OTH 7.9%
FG take a seat from FF (as expected by most, I think).
Laois-Offaly (5 seats)
2007 result
FF 56.4% 3 seats – Brian Cowen, Sean Fleming, John Maloney
FG 27.4% 2 seats – Olywn Enwright, Charlie Flanagan
LP 2.4%
GP 1.1%
SF 5.1%
OTH 8.6%
Local developments:
A population of c.4,000 in Roscrea is moved from here to Tipp Nth. Big leaders bonus here for Brian Cowen has just gone, and he announced today that he won’t be a candidate (although his brother Barry is very likely). John Moloney rumooured to be quitting. LP will be hoping that the poor LP track record here since Pat Gallagher quit politics will be reversed by their selection of former Leinster Express editor John Whelan, although the local row this provoked may not help him, whatever Oscar Wilde said about bad publicity…although the subsequent split among those who opposed him possibly vindicates LP’s decision to go with him. FG lose Olywn Enright and got almost exactly their national average vote here last time, but are talking up their chances of a third seat.
Likely candidates:
FF Cowen, Fleming, John Foley
FG Flanagan, Liam Quinn, Marcella Corcoran-Kennedy
LP Whelan
SF Brian Stanley
OTH John Leahy, Eddie FitzPatrick, Liam Dumpleton (ex-ULA, now IND), Ray FitzPatrick (ULA), James Fanning
Projection based on poll
FF 28.2% 2 seats
FG 38.5% 2 seats
LP 11.3%
GP 0.5%
SF 12.2% 1 seat
OTH 9.2%
FF lose a seat, with SF looking the best placed to take advantage, although LP are very close to taking a second FF seat
Limerick City (4 seats – reduced from 5 when Limerick East)
2007 result
FF 48.7% 2 seats – Willie O’Dea, Peter Power
FG 25.5% 2 seats – Micahel Noonan, Kieran O’Donnell
LP 10.3% 1 seat – Jan O’Sullivan
GP 2.6%
SF 4.2%
OTH 8.6%
Local developments:
Drops a seat and renamed from Limerick East, with FG-friendly rural wards (pop. c.17,000) deserting Kieran O’Donnell for the County. Willie O’Dea now hoping his removal from cabinet over slandering SF candidate Maurice Quinlivan will distance him from the Govt, and Quinlivan will doubtless be hoping that the trick of winning a court case will give him the sort of boost that helped Pearse Doherty. Both FF and FG may end up dropping a seat, with their better long-term bets (in Power and O’Donnell) losing out to men who probably will be contesting their final GE, and Jan O’Sullivan may have to split her vote generously if she is to pull in running mate Joe Leddin.
Likely candidates:
FF O’Dea, Power
FG Noonan, O’Donnell
LP O’Sullivan, Joe Leddin
SF Maurice Quinlivan
OTH Cian Prendeville (ULA), Kevin Kiely
Projection based on poll
FF 15.7% 1 seat
FG 34% 1 seat
LP 34.7% 2 seats
GP 0.1%
SF 8.4%
OTH 7.1%
O’Donnell (FG) and Power both lose out to the older hands on their ticket, with LP gaining one seat and one leaving the constituency altogether.
Limerick County (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 47.2% 2 seats – John Cregan, Niall Collins
FG 39.9% 1 seat – Dan Nevillle
LP 5.6%
GP 2.4%
SF 0.0%
OTH 4.8%
Local developments:
Gains a bit from Limerick East, and loses a bit to Kerry North. The third seat has done funny things here over the years, going to the PDs, and going to FG2 on one occasion as a result of IND FF candidates splitting the FF vote oddly once, and young LP candidate James Heffernan, who polled very well in the ’09 LEs will be hoping to provide the surprise here this time.
Likely candidates:
FF Cregan, Collins
FG Neville, William O’Donnell , Patrick O’Donovan
LP James Heffernan
Oth John Dillon
Projection based on poll
FF 24.0% 1 seats
FG 48.9% 2 seats
LP 18.4%
GP 1%
SF 2.4%
OTH 5.2%
Not Heffernan’s day on these figures- FF short of a quota, but close enough to hold one of their 2 seats, and FG have enough votes to take the other.
Longford-Westmeath (4 seats)
2007 result
FF 41.2% 2 seats – Mary O’Rourke, Peter Kelly
FG 30.9% 1 seat, James “Bonkers” Bannon
LP 17.7% 1 seat, Willie Penrose
GP 1.7%
SF 3.9%
OTH 4.6%
Local developments:
Former PD TD, Longford-based Mae Sexton, has provoked deja-vu among those who remember Helena McAuliffe Ennis, and apoplexy among others, by joining LP, and is well placed to take Peter Kelly’s seat if it stays in Longford, although FG have high hopes that Nicky McFadden will bring it across the county line to Westmeath.
Likely candidates:
FF O’Rourke, Kelly, Robert Troy
FG Bannon, McFadden, Peter Burke
LP Penrose, Sexton
SF Paul Hogan
OTH Kevin Moran
Projection based on poll
FF 19% 1 seats
FG 34.8% 1 seats
LP 34.1% 2 seats
GP 0.7%
SF 6.9%
OTH 4.4%
Close, but the addition of gender and county balance to the LP ticket here should be enough to take a second seat, given the SF transfers that will be on offer. Sexton will need some Westmeath votes though, as Penrose will be well aware.
Louth (5 seats)
2007 result
FF 42.1% 2 seats – Dermot Ahern, Seamus Kirk
FG 29.4% 1 seat – Fergus O’Dowd
LP 5.0%
GP 7.6%
SF 15.0% 1 seat – Arthur Morgan
OTH 0.9%
Local developments:
Hardly anything here really…. 😉 Dermot Ahern and Arthur Morgan are retiring, Seamus Kirk won’t be on the ballot as Ceann Comhairle, Gerry Adams seeks a seat in a national parliament (that he’d take) for the first time. Technically, the Baron has had to be appointed to a job that doesn’t really exist, in order to resign from a Parliament that he never actually attended. When East meets West, eh…?
LP looking to take the seat that Michael Bell held in the 80s, assisted not just by a Gilmore Gale but also a large chunk of Meath adjacent to Drogheda (pop. c.17,500) which perviously voted LP in large measure and which Drogheda based Ged Nash will be hoping will seal the deal for him. FG replace Mairead McGuiness with GAA man Peter FitzPatrick
Likely candidates:
FF James Carroll, Declan Breathnach
FG O’Dowd, Fitzpatrick
LP Nash, Mary Moran
GP Mark Deary
SF Adams
OTH Thomas Clare, Gerry Crilly
Projection based on poll
FF 8% 1 seat (CC)
FG 36.8% 2 seats
LP 17.5% 1 seat
GP 2%
SF 27.2% 1 seat
OTH 8.6%
FF lose Ahern’s seat to FitzPatrick, with LP picking up the extra seat in the Southern end of the constituency. Adams romps home.
Mayo (5 seats)
2007 result
FF 24.5% 1 seat – Dara Calleary
FG 53.8% 3 seats – Enda Kenny, Michael Ring, John O’Mahoney
LP 1.2%
GP 0.8%
SF 5.0%
OTH 14.7% 1 seat – Beverly Cooper-Class Act-Flynn
Local developments:
We need more politicians with convictions, they say, but they’re losing one here, with the retirement of Beverly Cooper-Flynn – much to the relief, one imagines, of Dara Calleary who should now be safe. FG leader Enda Kenny will again try for the feat of a 4th seat that they weren’t a million miles off last time, but will be hampered by the decision of ex Indo TD Dr Jerry Cowley to join LP, and also any Adams Avalanche. Word is that ex-LP member and Indo Cllr Michael Kilcoyne isn’t running.
Likely candidates:
FF Calleary
FG Kenny, Ring, O’Mahoney,Michelle Mulherin
LP Cowley
SF Rose Conway-Walsh, Therese Ruane
Projection based on poll
FF 18.7% 1 seats
FG 55.6% 3 seats
LP 8.1% 1 seat
SF 9.3%
OTH 8.4%
FG4 loses out the the last leftist standing, LP on these figures, with the decision of SF to run 2 candidates a strange one…..
Meath E (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 43.6% 2 seats, Mary Wallace, Thomas Byrne
FG 25.9% 1 seat – Shane McEntee
LP 11.9%
GP 3.1%
SF 3.9%
OTH 11.6%
Local developments:
The constituency loses the chunk to Louth and gains c.6.750 votes around Kells from Meath W, dropping the LP vote a percentage point or two. Mary Wallace, has retired, allowing Byrne at least some chance of making it.
Likely candidates:
FF Byrne
FG McEntee, Regina Doherty
LP Dominic Hannigan
SF Michael Gallagher
Projection based on poll
FF 15.1%
FG 40.3% 2 seats
LP 25.3% 1 seat
GP 0.3%
SF 8%
OTH 11%
FF lose both seats, one each to FG and LP.
Meath W (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 51.6% Noel Dempsey, Johnny Brady
FG 29.0% Damien English
LP 4.0%
GP 2.5%
SF 11.3%
OTH 1.6%
Local developments:
Loses Kells to Meath E. This combined with the retirement of Noel Dempsey is expected to give a boost to Navan-based Jenny McHugh who lives in that town and is principal of a local National School. FG and SF both have high hopes here also, with the latter talking up new canididate Peadar Toibin’s chances. Famously, FG supporter Sarah Carey just before the ’07 election said that if Graeme Geraghty ran for the Communist Party in Meath he would be elected, however he ran for FG and got 3%, so perhaps the marxist left will take a seat here in 2011.
Likely candidates:
FF Johnny Brady, Shane Cassells
FG English, Catherine Yore, Ray Butler
LP Jenny McHugh
SF Toibin
OTH Seamus McDonagh (WP)
Projection based on poll
FF 15.8%
FG 39.1% 1 seat
LP 17.1% 1 seat
GP 0.0%
SF 18.2% 1 seat
OTH 9.8%
FF lose both seats, one to LP and the other to SF, FG’s hopes of a 2nd seat being hampered by, IMO, crazy candidate strategy. Expect lots of pictures of Yore in the papers, btw….
Roscommon S Leitrim (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 38.8% 1 seat – Michael Finneran
FG 39.1% 2 seats, Frank Feighen, Denis Naughton
LP 1.8%
GP 1.8%
SF 8.4%
OTH 10.1%
Local developments:
A population of c.3,400 moves from the Leitrim part of this constituency to Sligo-N.Leitrim. Michael Finneran has surprised many by announcing his retirement. Indo candidate John Kelly did very well here in ’07, polling 10%, and LP will hope that his running under their banner will see them pull off an historic seat here. SF however got 4 times as many votes as their candidate last time, and if SF do very well this time, they will be hard to beat. Add to the mix Luke “Ming” Flanagan, who was elected in Kelly’s ward (alebeit with a much lower vote) in ’09, and who is Roscommon’s Mayor, a certain FG seat, a very likely FG 2nd seat, the locally resented partition of Leitrim, and FF hoping to hold on to what was Finneran’s seat, and this could be a long – and contested count.
Likely candidates:
FF Gerry Kilraine, Ivan Connaughton
FG Feighen, Naughton
LP Kelly
SF Martin Kenny
OTH Flanagan
Projection based on poll
FF 15.6%
FG 44% 2 seats
LP 11.1%
GP 0.7%
SF 13.8%
OTH 14.9% 1 seat
Finneran may have known something …. FF lose their seat here, on these figures Flanagan surfing a wave of Indo votes, although he and Kelly are very competitive and competing on the same patch – however wins that tussle appears very likely to be elected.
Sligo N Leitrim (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 41.0% 2 seats – Eamon Scanlon, Jimmy Devins
FG 39.3% 1 seat – John Perry
LP 3.9%
GP 3.0%
SF 11.7%
OTH 1.1%
Local developments:
Again there are local resentments about the partitiion of Leitrim between two constituencies unlikely to return a TD from that county. Here the two FF TDs are, somewhat bizarrely, not taking the FF whip, but voting with the government on every issue. Jimmy Devins won’t run again, leaving the task of holding the FF seat to his fellow “rebel” (ahem) Eamon Scanlon. FG2 will be hopeful of taking a seat, as will LP’s Susan O’Keefe, who polled respectably in Ireland-West in the Euros, but SF will consider themselves favourites to take a seat in this constituency if there is a surge to their party, particulary as they got a decent vote here even when polling 1-2% nationally. The dark horse will be Declan Bree (ULA), having taken a seat in the Sping Tide for LP, but since cast aside his Tankie principals for an alliance dominated by Trotskyists.
Likely candidates:
FF Eamon Scanlan, Marc McSharry
FG Perry, McLaughlin
LP Susan O’Keefe
SF Michael Colreavy
OTH Declan Bree, Gabriel McSharry , Michael Clarke
Projection based on poll
FF 17.9%
FG 43.2% 2 seats
LP 10.3%
GP 1%
SF 17% 1 seat
OTH 10.6%
FF lose both of their non-seats, one to FG and the other to SF.
Tipperary N (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 34.3% 1 seat – Maire Hocter
FG 15.9% 1 seat – Noel Coonan
LP 10.3%
GP 1.1%
SF 3.8%
OTH 34.7% 1 seat – Michael Lowry
Local developments:
Lowry Country. More? Oh, well Alan Kelly is running for LP, and so a rainforest of leaflets promoting him should go through the local letterboxes. But other than that, no, sorry. I’ve got nothing.
Likely candidates:
FF Hocter, Michael Smith (jnr)
FG Coonan
LP Alan Kelly
OTH Michael Lowry, Donal O’Regan
Projection based on poll
FF 13.5%
FG 23.4% 1 seat
LP 14.5% 1 seat
GP 0.4%
SF 6.5%
OTH 41.6% 1 seat
FF lose a seat to LP, although if Lowry had a running mate he’d probably take him/her in with him instead.
Tipperary S (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 46.4% 2 seats – Mattie McGrath, Martin Manseragh
FG 21.1% 1 seat Tom Hayes
LP 8.8%
GP 1.5%
SF 3.1%
OTH 19.1%
Local developments:
Mattie McGrath. Mattie McGrath! MATTIE MCGRATH!!!!
Did I mention Mattie McGrath?
Likely candidates:
FF Manseragh
FG Hayes, Michael Murphy
LP Phil Prendergast
SF Michael Brown
OTH Mattie McGrath (IFF), Seamus Healy (ULA)
Projection based on poll
FF 17%
FG 23.8% 1 seat
LP 13.5%
GP 0.5%
SF 5.9%
OTH 39.3% 2 seats
I’m calling it Mattie, ULA and FG, with LP getting ahead of Manseragh on transfers but just too far behind.
Waterford (4 seats)
2007 result
FF 46.4% 2 seats – Martin Cullen, Brendan Keaneally
FG 27.4% 1 seat – John Deasy
LP 11.3% 1 seat – Brian O’Shea
GP 2.1%
SF 6.7%
OTH 6.0%
Local developments:
Martin Cullen has retired, and FG have high hopes for Paudge Coffey to take his seat. Brian O’Shea has retired, and LP are running City-based John Ryan and Dungarvan based Ciara Conway. Ex-WP cllr John Halligan is also expected to poll well.
Likely candidates:
FF Kenneally
FG Deasy, Paudie Coffey
LP Ryan, Conway
SF David Cullinane
OTH Halligan, Joe Conway, Joe Tobin (WP), Ben Nutty
Projection based on poll
FF 13.1%
FG 36.2% 2 seats
LP 21.9% 1 seat
GP 0.0%
SF 11.5%
OTH 17.3% 1 seat
FF lose both seats, one to FG and the other to Halligan.
Wexford (5 seats)
2007 result
FF 42.2% 2 seats – Sean Connick, John Browne
FG 31.6% 2 seats -Paul Kehoe, Michael D’arcy
LP 13.4% 1 seat Brendan Howlin
GP 1.2%
SF 7.4%
OTH 3.9%
Local developments:
Contrary to earlier rumours, I’m now told that ex-SF candidate John Dwyer will be running as an Independent left-wing candidate, rather than hitch his wagon to the ULA. The outcome here could depend on whether Brendan Howlin splits his vote, as otherwise his running mate Pat Cody could lose out to SF, Dwyer or, conceivably, FG3. FF got just over their national vote here last time, and so require a significant recovery if Browne and Connick are to be doing more than fighting over a single seat.
Likely candidates:
FF Connick, Browne
FG Kehoe, Darcy, Liam Twoomey
LP Howlin, Cody
SF Anthony Kelly
OTH John Dwyer (IND), Seamus O’Brien (ULA)
Projection based on poll
FF 19.4% 1 seat
FG 36.6% 2 seats
LP 24.2% 2 seats
GP 0.7%
SF 8.5%
OTH 10.6%
FF lose a seat to Cody, who edges ahead of Cody of the pack, assuming he manages about 38-40% of the LP vote – much less and he’d most likely lose out. I’d not write off Dwyer though, and if he holds on to more of the SF vote than I’ve given him here, he could be in the running also.
Wicklow (5 seats)
2007 result
FF 38.0% 2 seats – Dick Roche, Joe Behan
FG 23.2% 2 seats – Andrew Doyle, Billy Timmons
LP 16.3% 1 seat – Liz McManus
GP 7.4%
SF 5.0%
OTH 10.1%
Local developments:
Joe Behan has since reigned from FF in protest over the early phase of the cuts, although since then has supported much harsher measures, and might decide against running again. Liz McManus has retired, and her son didn’t make it on the 3 person ticket that seems well balanced in terms of geography.
Likely candidates:
FF Dick Roche, Pat Fitzgerald
FG Doyle, Timmons, Simon Harris
LP Anne Ferris, Tom Fortune, Conal Kavanagh
SF John Brady
OTH Joe Behan, Robert Kearns, Peter Dempsey TC,Stephen Donnelly, Thomas Clarke, Gerry Kinsella, Pat Kavanagh
Projection based on poll
FF 8.8%
FG 33.2% 2 seats
LP 29.4% 2 seats
GP 2.4%
SF 10.2%
OTH 15.9% 1 seat
FF lose both the Roche and Behan seats, to LP and Behan, although SF very much in the mix.
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So that’s it. Next post will be post GE being called, and will have full details of the predictions competition.
D
Irish Polling Report 