And they’re off!
Well, the Dail has just been dissolved, and the polls are starting to come thick and fast. The Indo has commissioned a poll from Lansdowne/Millward Browne, only days after the Sindo had them do one, and while it’s out tomorrow, RTE announced the result tonight. It’s good for SF, bad for FG, but not much else to see.
FF 16% (NC)
FG 30% (-4)
LP 24% (NC)
SF 13% (+3)
GP 1% (NC)
OTH 16% (+1)
It has to be said that the last L/MB poll had SF lower than other surveys, and so it’s possible that this was an outlier for them, being corrected here. Either way, it’s good for them. FG on the other hand will be disappointed to see a drop outside the margin of error, the first recorded in a poll at the start of a campaign, and they’ll be hoping that this is just a blip. Cetainly, on p.ie FG supporters have been convinced that they are pulling away from LP in public support, and so they’ll be concerned to see a poll suggesting that their lead over Gilmore’s party has been reduced by two-fifths over the course of a single weekend – one which they thought was good for them (and/or bad for LP).
Everything else is m.o.e. stuff.
In terms of seats, I’ve put it through the spreadsheet, and it give the following results (change on the Sindo results in brackets);
FF 17 (-2)
FG 58 (-4)
LP 51 (-3)
SF 18 (+10)
GP 0
OTH 22 (-1)
As you can see, the big rise in SF (as they pass a tipping point) hits LP almost as much as FG in seats, despite them being stable in votes – this is a result of a lot of seats being between LP and SF, and while LP gain a couple of seats from FG on these figures, they lose more to SF, relative to the Sindo poll.
RedC poll out tomorrow for Paddy Power – I’ll try to get the prediction competition up in the next 24 hours.
D
Irish Polling Report 
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February 2, 2011 at 12:08 am
Get your sleep. I’ve a feeling you’re going to need it.
Two things. Firstly Sinn Fein is clearly the official wild card in the this election, especially with their vote hovering around the entry threshold for most seats. But if you look at the Sindo/LMB details Adams is at his worst rating ever – and some of this before he become the economic facts Mr Bean.
He’s at half his rating of 2007, when the conventional wisdom was that SF under-performed because they were led by this strange bearded creature from the North. Will this happen again or will SF benefit from all Party leaders being treated with contempt?
Secondly, the unofficial wild card are the Independents. In the past, as an outsider I get the impression that these were often FF outsiders and surpluses/transfers would go back home that way. I get the impression (and the poll details hint) it’s different this time. Am I right?
Roger Mexico
February 2, 2011 at 3:01 am
Hard to say re the Indos. Some of the details drip-driped out about them suggests that in demographic terms they are most similar to LP/SF/GP. Now maybe that’s a co-incidence, but given a majority of the leading indos are left-leaning, that would suggest that they are taking votes out of their piles.
On Adams, I do think he’s not a great vote winner for them, but suspect that much of the “new” SF vote isn’t particularly bothered, as they are looking for a trenchant opposition, rather than a competent govt party. Time will tell, though…
Dotski
February 4, 2011 at 10:47 pm