Irish Polling Report

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Hi folks,

Still no sign of an Irish Times poll, so I’ve done a constituency-by-constituency projection based on the average of the RedC and Lansdowne/MB polls published yesterday. Knowing my luck, they’ll come out about 10 minutes after I post this….. As ever, if you spot a mistake, please let me know.

For those of you who might be new here, this projection is based on a spreadsheet I’ve developed that extrapolates national votes to local areas. It’s not a portal to the future, and in some areas, parties are likely to outperform the national swing, and in other areas under-perform it, but this shows roughly what they may be deviating from, and largely those differences should cancel one another out.

I’ve made a few adjustments in the base distributions to acknowledge the change of leadership in FF, reducing the FF base vote in Laois-Offaly and increased it in Cork, with a double boost in CSC. Also a couple of tweaks where local factors may impact (e.g. Shane Ross in Dublin South), so the distribution has changed a tad.

Having made these changes, the headline figures are;

FF 16% (19 seats)
FG 33.5% (62 seats)
LP 22.5% (50 seats)
SF 11.5% (13 seats)
GP 1.5% (0 seats)
OTH 15% (22 seats)


Carlow-Kilkenny (5 seats)

2007
FF 47.7% 3 seats – John McGuiness, Bobby Aylward, MJ Nolan
FG 29.6% 1 seat – Phil Hogan
LP 9.4%
GP 8.0% 1 seat- Mary White
SF 3.8%
OTH 1.6%

Local developments:
John McGuiness has distanced himself from the FF party, and his colleague MJ Nolan has announced that he will not run in 2011.

Likely candidates:
FF: McGuiness, Aylward, Jennifer Murnane
FG: Hogan, John-Paul Phelan, Pat Deering
LP: Anne Phelan, Des Hurley
GP: White
SF: Kathleen Funchion, John Cassin
OTH: Conor McLiam (ULA)

Projection based on poll
FF 26.8% (2 seats)
FG 37.5% (2 seats)
LP 16.6% (1 seat)
GP 4.3%
SF 8.6%
OTH 3.1%

FF hold on to 2 of their 3 seats here, with the other falling to LP. Depending on the internal SF transfer (and potentially the eveness of the LP vote) FF2 just holds off SF1, FG3 or LP2.

Cavan-Monaghan (5 seats)

2007 result
FF 37.8% 3 seats – Rory O’Hanlon (C.C.), Brendan Smith, Margaret Conlon
FG 31.2% 1 seat – Seymour Crawford
LP 1.2%
GP 3.6%
SF 20.0% 1 seat – Caoimhghin O’Caolain
OTH 6.2%

Local developments:
Reverts to 5 elected seats as Ceann Comhairle is now from Louth. O’Hanlon and Crawford are retiring. FG field 4 non-TDs in what may be some sort of record.

Likely candidates:
FF Smith, Conlan
FG Joe O’Reilly, Heather Humphries, Peter McVitty, Sean Conlan
LP Liam Hogan
SF O’Caolain + Kathryn Reilly
OTH Johnathon Rainey, John McGuirk

Projection based on poll
FF 16.5% (1 seat)
FG 35.5% (2 seats)
LP 6.1%
GP 1.3%
SF 30.4% (2 seats)
OTH 10.2%

FF hold on to one seat, probably Smith. Reilly makes a gain, with Humphries holding Crawford’s seat.

Clare (4 seats)
2007 result
FF 44.0% 2 seats – Timmy Dooley, Tom Kileen
FG 35.2% 2 seats – Joe Carey, Pat Breen
LP 1.6%
GP 5.1%
SF 3.4%
OTH 10.7%

Local developments:
Popular FF TD and Defence Minister Tony Kileen is retiring. The intentions of former IND FF TD James Breen who lost his seat in 2007 are unclear, but I’m assuming that he’s running. Former Independent MEP candidate Michael McNamara who polled 10,000 Clare votes in 2009 has joined the LP and will be seeking a seat.

Likely candidates:
FF Dooley, John Hillery
FG Carey, Breen, Tony Mulcahy
LP Michael McNamara
GP Brian Meaney
OTH James Breen, Jim Connolly

Projection based on poll
FF 21.8% 1 seat
FG 42.3% 2 seats
LP 10.6%
GP 2.5%
SF 7.2%
OTH 15.7% 1 seat

A scramble for Kileen’s seat, with it falling to Indo Breen on these figures, from McNamara. NB I’m told that SF aren’t contesting here (which appears strange, but there you go) – not clear at this stage what effect that might have.

Cork E (4 seats)
2007 result
FF 38.0% 2 seats – Michael Ahern, Ned O’Keefe
FG 30.9% 1 seat – David Stanton
LP 20.9% 1 seat – Sean Sherlock
GP 2.9%
SF 6.8%
OTH 0.5%

Local developments:
A population of c. 4,250 moves out for CNC. Both LP and FG will be hopeful of picking up a FF seat here. Ned O’Keefe has moved on, with son Kevin hoping to hold the seat in his place.

Likely candidates:
FF Ahern, O’Keefe
FG Stanton, Tom Barry, Pa O’Driscoll
LP Sherlock, John Mulvihill Snr
SF Sandra McLennan
OTH Paul O’Neill

Projection based on poll
FF 16.3%
FG 33.5% 2 seats
LP 34.9% 2 seats
GP 1%
SF 10.2%
OTH 4.1%

FF drop 2 seats, with leakage seeing LP and FG both nipping in, in part on SF transfers. Quite close though, and better SF-FF transfers could see one of the 2 FF candidates hold on.

Cork NC (4 seats)
2007 result
FF 35.7% 2 seats – Billy Kelleher, Noel O’Flynn
FG 25.6% 1 seat – Bernard Allen
LP 12.3% 1 seat – Kathleen Lynch
GP 3.6%
SF 8.2%
OTH 12.6%

Local developments:
Boundary revisions see the new voters from Cork E (above) and also a transfer of a population of c.4,300 from Cork NW, making it a slightly more rural constituency. Noel O’Flynn and Bernard Allen have both retired, the latter being replaced by popular former Mayor Dara Murphy. Lynch has a strong running mate in John Gilroy

Likely candidates:
FF Kelleher
FG Murphy, Pat Burton
LP Lynch, Gilroy
SF Johnathon O’Brien
ULA/SP Mick Barry,
OTH Padraig O’Sullivan, Ted Tyan (WP), Fergus O’Rourke

Projection based on poll
FF 8.3%
FG 32.8% 2 seats
LP 25.0% 1 seat
GP 0.3%
SF 12.2%
OTH 21.3% 1 seat

Comments
FF lose both seats, with one going to FG, and the other to the winner of a scramble between LP2, SF and SP. It looks like SP to me on these figures, but both LP2 and SF are competitive, and LP2 could even be elected in addition to SP if they split the vote well (at the expense of FG2).

Cork NW (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 53.05% 2 seats – Michael Moynihan, Batt O’Keefe
FG 38.42% 1 seat – Michael Creed
LP 4.91%
GP 3.62%

Local developments:
Batt O’Keefe is retiring.

Likely candidates:
FF Moynihan
FG Creed, Derry Canty, Aine Collins
LP Martin Coughlan
GP Mark Collins
SF Des O’Grady
ULA/PBP Anne Foley

Projection based on poll
FF 32.7% 1 seat
FG 43.1% 2 seats
LP 14.2%
GP 1.3%
SF 2.7%
OTH 6%

FG take a seat from FF, with LP too far behind to pull them in, even with SF and GP transfers.

Cork SC (5 seats)
2007 result
FF 44.28% 2 seats – Michael Martin, Michael McGrath
FG 28.41% 2 seats – Simon Coveney, Deirdre Clune
LP 9.25% 1 seat – Ciaran Lynch
GP 8.37%
SF 5.11%
OTH 4.57%

Local developments:
Micheál Martin is now leader of FF. Former GP Cllr Chris O’Leary is the SF candidate this time out

Likely candidates:
FF Martin, McGrath
FG Clune, Coveney, Jerry Buttimer
LP Lynch, Paula Desmond
GP Dan Boyle
SF O’Leary

Projection based on poll
FF 19.2% 1 seat
FG 37.2% 2 seats
LP 22.7% 2 seats
GP 2.2%
SF 9.5%
OTH 9.1%

Even Martin taking the leadership (which I give them a one-fifth bonus for) isn’t enough to give FF 2 seats, although it makes Martin’s previously didgy seat very safe. On these figures, Desmond would nudge ahead of O’leary and hold off FG3, but very close, and I’d not write off the former GP man on the basis of this.

Cork SW (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 42.60% 1 seat –Christy O’Sullivan
FG 36.00% 2 seats – Jim O’Keefe, PJ Sheehan
LP 9.60%
GP 6.70%
SF 5.10%

Local developments:
FG’s 2 TDs – Jim O’Keefe and PJ Sheehan are retiring

Likely candidates:
FF O’Sullivan, Denis O’Donovan
FG Jim Daly, Noel Harrington
LP Michael McCarthy
SF Paul Hayes
GP Jennifer Sleeman (although read a rumour on Twitter today that there may be a question mark over her candidacy)
OTH David McInerney, Trich Deeney, John Kearney

Projection based on poll
FF 24.5% 1 seat
FG 37.1% 1 seat
LP 22.1% 1 seat
GP 3%
SF 8.9%
OTH 4.5%

LP take one of the FG seats being retired . FF hold on to the seat.

Donegal NE (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 50.3% 2 seats – Neal Blaney, Jim McDaid
FG 22.6% 1 seat – Joe McHugh
LP 1.8%
GP 1.4%
SF 17.5%
OTH 6.5%

Local developments:
Jim McDaid has retired, and Blaney isn’t running for personal reasons. Former Indo, Cllr Jimmy Harte, has joined LP and will be their candidate. 4 electoral divisions (pop of 2,351) in the former Stranorlar Rural district are being transfered to South West.

Likely candidates:
FF Charlie McConalogue
FG McHugh
LP Harte
SF Padraig MacLoughlain
OTH Ryan Stewart

Projection based on poll
FF 25% 1 seat
FG 28.6% 1 seat
LP 12.9%
GP 0.6%
SF 24% 1 seat
OTH 9.1%

As predicted by most punters, I think, McDaid’s seat goes to SF. FF hold on to 1 seat, although if geogrpahy becomes an issue, he may struggle, with MacLoughlain also based in Inishowen. Hard to see either FF or SF fail to take a seat on these figures, though, although Harte will try to use his Letterkenny base to his best advantage.

Donegal SW (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 50.5% 2 seats – Mary Coughlan, Pat “The Cope” Gallagher
FG 23.0% 1 seat –Dinny McGinlay
LP 2.8%
GP 1.5%
SF 21.2%
OTH 1.0%

Local developments:
Gallagher has gone to the EP, and SF’s Pearse Doherty won the by-election by a country mile. As already mentioned, rural Stranorlar districts are moved from North East

Likely candidates:
FF Coughlan, Brian O’Domhnaill
FG McGinley
LP Frank McBrearty
SF Doherty
OTH Thomas Pringle, Ann Sweeney

Projection based on poll
FF 18.7%
FG 24.9% 1 seat
LP 10.2%
GP 0.5%
SF 28.8% 1 seat
OTH 16.9% 1 seat

Having lost 1 seat to SF in the by-election, FF lose a second, this time Tanaiste Mary Coughlan msot likely losing out to Indo Thomas Pringle, although McBreaty may push closer than expected if he does well in the new Stranorlar districts on his doorstep, coming in from North-East.

Dublin C (4 seats)
2007 result
FF 44.5% 2 seats – Bertie Ahern, Cyprian Brady
FG 9.5%
LP 12.6% 1 seat – Joe Costello
GP 5.8%
SF 9.2%
OTH 18.5% 1 seat Tony Gregory

Local developments:
Bertie Ahern is no longer Taoiseach and not expected to run. Tony Gregory died, and Maureen O’Sullivan won the by-election by a comfortable margin. FF at war.

Likely candidates:
FF Brady, Mary FitzPatrick
FG Paschal Donoghue
LP Costello, Aine Clancy
SF Mary-Lou McDonald
OTH Maureen O’Sullivan, Cieran Perry, Christy Burke

Projection based on poll
FF 5.7%
FG 15.1% 1 seat
LP 33.5% 1 seats
GP 1.3%
SF 13.2%
OTH 31.2% 2 seats

FF collapse, and while it’s possible that they could out-perform this if FitzPatrick plays the maverick card, it’s hard to see them do so to the extent that they hold a seat. On these figures, Donoghue’s dream finally comes true. The other FF seat is taken by and Indo (possibly Perry who haas a very strong base in Cabra and comes from the same republican/left gene poll that MLMcD is hoping will vote SF. Clancy misses out by a very small margin, largely as a result of poor vote management (I’m anticipating she gets no more than 33% of LP vote, but needs closer to 38% or so).

Dublin Mid-West
2007 result
FF 33.0% 1 seat – John Curran
FG 12.0%
LP 10.9% 1 seat – Joanna Tuffy
GP 10.8% 1 seat – Paul Gogarty
SF 9.3%
OTH 11.5% 1 seat- Mary Harney

Local developments:
Mary Harney is expected to retire. Ex-Indo Cllr Derek Keating has joined FG ticket with fellow 2007 hopeful Frances FitzGerald. LP have selected former Mayor Robert Dowds to their ticket alongside sitting TD Joanna Tuffy, and SF candidate will be former Belfast City Cllr Eoin O’Broin. Other than that, not much…. Oh yes, and rival ULA campaigns…..

Likely candidates:
FF Curran
FG Keating, Fitzgerlad
LP Tuffy, Dowds
GP Gogarty
SF O’Broin
OTH Gino Kenny (PBP/ULA), Robert Connolly (SP/ULA), Michael Finnegan (WP)

Projection based on poll
FF 10%
FG 26.3% 1 seat
LP 31.5% 2 seats
GP 4.3%
SF 14.9% 1 seat
OTH 13.1%

FG, LP and SF to take a Govt seat each from FF, GP and Mary Harney.

Dublin N (4 seats)
2007 result
FF 42.1% 2 seats – Michael Kennedy, Dara O’Brien
FG 14.3% 1 seat – James Reilly
LP 9.6%
GP 16.7% 1 seat- Trevor Sargant
SF 2.7%
OTH 14.9%

Local developments:
A large chunk of Swords (pop c. 12,800) has left for Dublin West, and another area around Portmarnock (pop. c. 9,000) goes to NE, making life harder for Kennedy and SP hopeful Clare Daly. Sargant is no longer GP leader.

Likely candidates:
FF Kennedy, O’Brien
FG Reilly, Alan Farrell
LP Brendan Ryan, Tom Kelleher
GP Sargant
OTH Daly (SP/ULA)

Projection based on poll
FF 12.7%
FG 24.2% 1 seat
LP 25.7% 2 seats
GP 6.8%
SF 6.4%
OTH 24.1% 1 seat

FF lose both seats, one to LP and the other to SP, with LP taking a second from Sargant.

Dublin NC (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 44.0% 1 seat – Sean Haughey
FG 25.6% 1 seat – Richard Bruton
LP 7.3%
GP 5.2%
SF 3.8%
OTH 14.2% 1 seat – Finian McGrath

Local developments:
An area around Edenmore (pop. c. 2,750) arrives from NE. Callelly gone. Former GP candidate Browen Maher now in the LP

Likely candidates:
FF Haughey
FG Bruton , Naoise O’Muiri
LP Aodhan O’Riordan
GP Donna Cooney
SF Helen McCormack
OTH McGrath, John Lyons (ULA), Paul Clarke

Projection based on poll
FF 12.2%
FG 32.7% 1 seat
LP 21.4% 1 seat
GP 1.1%
SF 8.6%
OTH 24% 1 seat

LP take a seat from FF, ending the Haughey dynasty.

Dublin NE (3 seats)

2007 result
FF 39.7% 1 seat – Michael Woods
FG 22.9% 1 seat – Terence Flanagan
LP 15.2% 1 seat – Tommy Broughan
GP 6.7%
SF 13.3%
OTH 2.1%

Local developments:
As mentioned above, new area in Portmarnock, but losing voters in Edenmore. Killian Forde has left SF for LP, but failed to get the nomination ahead of Broughan and Sean Kenny (the ticket that took 2 seats in 1992!).

Likely candidates:
FF Averil Power
FG Flanagan
LP Broughan, Kenny
GP David Healy
SF Larry O’Toole
OTH Brian Greene (ULA)

Projection based on poll
FF 9.5%
FG 28.2% 1 seat
LP 38% 2 seats
GP 1.5%
SF 17.8%
OTH 5%

On these figures, veteran slug-fest between Larry O’Toole and Sean Kenny favours the LP man, but very close – both are very much in it, and FF transfers likely to decide it.

Dublin NW (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 48.8% 2 seats – Pat Carey, Noel Ahern
FG 10.0%
LP 20.3% 1 seat – Roisin Shorthall
GP 2.8%
SF 15.7%
OTH 2.4%

Local developments:
De Brudder is retiring. Apparently worried that Bill Tormey doesn’t send out the appropriate image for FG in DNW, they have added Clontarf-based LM Gerry Breen to the ticket, which should be good for a laugh – prepare to hear about a wave of Romanian drug-pushing prostitutes on a crime spree in a PR from our first citizen of the capital…… LP have added John Lyons to a ticket that will be aiming for 2 seats.

Likely candidates:
FF Carey,
FG Tormey, Breen
LP Shorthall, Lyons
SF Dessie Ellis
OTH Andrew Keegan (PBP-ULA), Daniel Boyne, John Dunne (WP)

Projection based on poll
FF 12.6%
FG 16.7%
LP 42.7% 2 seats
GP 0.0%
SF 21.6% 1 seat
OTH 6.4%

FF lose both seats, one to SF and the other to LP.

Dublin S (5 seats)
2007 result
FF 41.3% 2 seats – Seamus Brennan, Tom Kitt
FG 27.3% 2 seats – Olivia Mitchell, Alan Shatter
LP 10.4%
GP 11.1% 1 seat – Eamon Ryan
SF 3.0%
OTH 6.9%

Local developments:
Seamus Brennan has passed away, and politically George Lee came and did the same. Tom Kitt insists that he is retiring. A re-drawing of the constituency has seen a largely (upper) middle class area (pop c. 11,700) move in from Dun Laoghaire, and this may prove good hunting grounds for Shane Ross (running on a “Sunday” Independent ticket…) and Peter “Bankers” Matthews, possibly to the detrimnet of Alan Shatter, who will surely know there aren’t 4 FG gene-pool seats here.

Likely candidates:
FF Maria Corrigan
FG Mitchell, Shatter, Matthews
LP Alex White, Aidan Culhane
GP Ryan

Projection based on poll
FF 9.1%
FG 31.6% 2 seats
LP 28.7% 2 seats
GP 4.6%
SF 6.1%
OTH 19.9% 1 seat

Both FF seats go, one to Ross and the other to LP, who also nick in to take Eamon Ryan’s seat. Biggest danger for LP is getting a good split in the vote here, as Aidan Culhane was added very late to the ticket, and failure to do so could see them lose out.

Dublin SC (5 seats)

2007 result
FF 33.1% 2 seats – Sean Ardagh, Michael Mulcahy
FG 14.4% 1 seat – Catherine Byrne
LP 21.1% 1 seat – Mary Upton
GP 5.8%
SF 10.2% 1 seat – Aengus O’Snodaigh
OTH 15.5%

Local developments:
Sean Ardagh is retiring, as is Mary Upton, whose nephew Henry, son of the late Pat Upton, will join Eric Byrne (very narrow loser here in ’07) and Micahel Conaghan as LP try to pull off 3 seats. Their biggest difficulty is likely to be ULA Cllr Joan Collins, who will be supported by former opponent Brid Smith of the SWP/PBP.

Likely candidates:
FF Mulcahy
FG Byrne, Ruairi McGinley, Colm Brophy
LP Byrne, Upton, Conaghan
GP Oisin O’hAlmhain
SF O’Snodaigh
OTH Collins (ULA), Gerry Kelly

Projection based on poll
FF 4.6%
FG 17.9% 1 seats
LP 44% 2 seats
GP 1.0%
SF 12.3% 1 seats
OTH 20.2% 1 seats

FF lose both seats, one to LP, who narrowly lose out to Joan Collins for the last seat. Still, a sign of the times that they would go from narrowly missing a second seat to narrowly missing a third. No doubt this would be a happy outcome for Collins, who was expelled from LP when in the Militant Tendency. LP may yet rue not running Rebecca Moynihan, although one suspects that her day will come.

Dublin SE (4 seats)

2007 result
FF 28.7% 1 seat – Chris Andrews
FG 18.6% 1 seat – Lucinda Creighton
LP 16.7% 1 seat – Ruairi Quinn
GP 13.8% 1 seat – John Gormley
SF 4.7%
OTH 17.4%

Local developments:
Michael McDowell has retired, having got his cards from the electorate. Gormley has become GP leader. Paul Somerville takes time out from his busy schedule to tell us how to do stuff, and Mannix Flynn will be hoping to perform well.

Likely candidates:
FF Andrews
FG Creighton, Eoghan Murphy
LP Quinn, Kevin Humphries
GP Gormley
SF Daithi O’Doolan
OTH Somerville, Flynn, Annette Mooney (ULA)

Projection based on poll
FF 11.5%
FG 21.8% 1 seat
LP 30% 2 seats
GP 5.3%
SF 6.7%
OTH 24.7% 1 seat

On these figures, FF and GP lose their seats to Humprhies and INDs respectively, although LP need to split vote to a good extent to achieve this (their LEs record here suggests that they can do this)

Dublin SW (4 seats)
2007 result
FF 39.3% 2 seats – Conor Lenihan, Charlie O’Connor
FG 20.0% 1 seat – Brian Hayes
LP 20.0% 1 seat – Pat Rabbitte
GP 3.7%
SF 12.2%
OTH 4.8%

Local developments:
Rabbitte is no longer LP leader. None of the last 3 poll toppers were elected here in the following election, which may cause Conor Lenihen some anxiety, and he is reputedly seeking to run in Dub Sth.

Likely candidates:
FF O’Connor, Lenihan
FG Hayes
LP Rabitte, Eamon Maloney
SF Sean Crowe
OTH Mick Murphy (SP/ULA)

Projection based on poll
FF 9%
FG 26% 1 seat
LP 32.2% 2 seats
GP 0.4%
SF 19.6% 1 seat
OTH 12.7%

Collapse in FF vote, sees LP and SF gain a seat each.

Dublin W (4 seats)
2007 result
FF 37.5% 1 seat – Brian Lenihan
FG 20.4% 1 seat – Leo Varadkar
LP 17.1% 1 seat – Joan Burton
GP 3.8%
SF 4.8%
OTH 16.5%

Local developments:
Brian Lenihan’s health problems are likely to result in a sympathy vote, and so I’ve increased the base FF vote in the spreadsheet to 50%. Joe Higgins will run, following his successful foray in the recent EP elections. An additional seat, with voters moved in from Swords from Dublin North.

Likely candidates:
FF Lenihan, David McGuinness
FG Varadkar, Kieran Dennison
LP Burton, Patrick Nulty
SF Paul Donnelly
OTH Higgins (SP/ULA)

Projection based on poll
FF 13.3%
FG 19.1% 1 seat
LP 36.4% 2 seats
GP 0.0%
SF 7.4%
OTH 23.8% 1 seat

Lenihen appears to be in serious trouble, given the positive adjustment made to the FF base vote. On this, he’d lose his seat, with this and the additional seat going to LP2 and SP.

Dun Laoghaire (4 seats)
2007 result
FF 34.9% 2 seats – Mary Hanafin, Barry Andrews
FG 23.6% 1 seat – Sean Barrett
LP 16.0% 1 seat – Eamon Gilmore
GP 7.7% 1 seat – Ciaran Cuffe
SF 2.2%
OTH 15.7%

Local developments:
One less seat to go round with the boundary review, and a chunk of the consitiuency (largely FG, FF and PD voting) has left for Dub Sth. Eamon Gilmore has become LP leader, and has a high profile running mate in Ivana Bacik, who will challenge strongly for a seat, although FG’s Mary Mitchell-O’Connor and ULA’s Richard Boyd-Barrett will both be hopeful of beating her to it. 3 Ministers in Hanafin, Barry Andrews and Ciaran Cuffe are all up against it.

Likely candidates:
FF Hanafin, Andrews
FG Barrett, Mitchell-O’Connor
LP Gilmore, Bacik
GP Cuffe
OTH Richard Boyd-Barrett (SWP/ULA), Victor Boyhan, Raymond Whitehead

Projection based on poll
FF 11.7%
FG 23.3% 1 seat
LP 34.8% 2 seats
GP 1.9%
SF 4.2%
OTH 24% 1 seat

FF running both TDs lose both, one to LP and one to the constituency revision, with RBB taking Cuffe’s seat. While FG would fancy their chances, there appear to be insufficient transfers for them to take the seat, with GP and SF voters likely to lean left with their preferences, and FF unlikely to go anywhere in particular.

Galway E (4 seats)

2007 result
FF 39.7% 2 seats – Noel Tracey, Michael Kitt
FG 39.1% 2 seats – Paul Connaughton, Ulick Burke
LP 3.1%
GP 1.9%
SF 3.2%
OTH 13.0%

Local developments:
FG TDs Paul Connaghton and Ulick Burke have both announced thier retirements, and so interim “let’s get this party ended” PD leader Ciaran Cannon seems likely to be in the next Dail. Paddy McHugh is unlikely to run, but another indo (Sean Canney) is likely to take his place on the ticket.

Likely candidates:
FF Kitt, Michael Dolan
FG Cannon, Tom McHugh, Paul Connaughton, Jimmy McClern
LP Colin Keaveny, Lorraine Higgins
SF Dermot Connolly
OTH Canney, Tim Broderick

Projection based on poll
FF 15.6% 1 seat
FG 48.1% 2 seats
LP 13.9% 1 seats
GP 0.0%
SF 6.6%
OTH 15.8%

A tough one to call, given the multiplicity of candidates, but I have SF and GP transfers pushing LP1 ahead of FG3, to see him/her take enough FG transfers on the election of FG2 to beat Canney for the last seat, although Canney could still hold off FF, particularly if he does well on SF transfers. Very tight.

Galway W (5 seats)
2007 result
FF 37.1% 2 seats – Eamon O’Cuiv, Frank Fahey
FG 20.4% 1 seat – Padraig McCormack
LP 11.1% 1 seat – Michael D
GP 5.5%
SF 3.0%
OTH 23.0% 1 seat – Noel Grealish (PD)

Local developments:
Noel Grealish is now an Indo. Michael D and Padraig McC won’t run, and Margaret Cox looks unlikely to stand – I’ve added most of her vote to the FF base figures.

Likely candidates:
FF O Cuiv, Fahey, Crowe
FG Fidelma Healy-Eames, Brian Walsh, Sean Kyne, Seosamh Ó Laoi
LP Derek Nolan
GP Niall O’Brollachain
OTH Grealish, Catherine Connolly, Eamonn Walsh, Mike Cubbard

Projection based on poll
FF 12.1% 1 seat
FG 29.1% 1 seat
LP 17.9% 1 seat
GP 1.6%
SF 6.6%
OTH 32.7% 2 seats

On these figures, FF lose a seat to Catherine Connolly, with Nolan holding on to Michael Dee’s seat at the first attempt. FG take one seat, but FG2 narrowly loses out to Dev Og.

Kerry N – W Limerick (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 31.3% 1 seat – Tom McEllistrom
FG 32.3% 1 seat – Jimmy Deenihan
LP 10.9%
GP 1.9%
SF 20.4% 1 seat – Martin Ferris
OTH 3.2%

Local developments:
Boundary changes are significnat enough to warrant a name change for the old Kerry Nth – and area with a population of c.5,000 moves to kerry Sth, with a chunk of Western Limericak (pop. c. 13,000) moves intot he new constituency. Arthur Spring seeking to bring a third generation of the dynasty to Kerry North

Likely candidates:
FF McEllistrom, Norma Foley
FG Deenihan, John Sheahan
LP Spring
SF Ferris

Projection based on poll
FF 13.4%
FG 35.1% 1 seat
LP 14.8% 1 seat
GP 0.6%
SF 28.1% 1 seat
OTH 8%

FF lose a seat, but on these figures LP heavily dependent on transfers, and vulernable to a FG surge.

Kerry S (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 40.7% 1 seat – John O’Donoghue
FG 25.1% 1 seat -Tom Sheahan
LP 13.5%
GP 1.9%
SF 3.5%
OTH 15.4% 1 seat – Jackie Healy-Rae

Local developments:
As mentioned above, new voters arrive from Kerry Nth. The cap is being passed on to the next generation, with Michael Healy-Rae standing in his father’s stead. FF member Tom Fleming recently announced his intention to run as an Indo, and this will test how much of that vote will stay in the family fold. LP have decided against a dynastic candidate, by fielding a non-Moynihan, and it will be interesting to see how much of that vote was LP.

Likely candidates:
FF O’Donoghue
FG Sheahan, Seamus FitzGerald
LP Marie Maloney
SF Lynn Ni Bhaoigheallain
OTH Michael Healy-Rae, Tom Fleming, Michael Gleeson

Projection based on poll
FF 16.7%
FG 28% 1 seat
LP 19.1% 1 seat
GP 0.6%
SF 6.6%
OTH 28.9% 1 seat

LP re-take the seat, at the expense(s) of the Bull O’Donoghue.

Kildare N (4 seats)
2007 result
FF 39.5% 2 seats – Aine Brady, Michael Fitzpatrick
FG 21.2% 1 seat – Bernard Durkan
LP 17.4% 1 seat – Emmet Stagg
GP 4.9%
SF 2.4%
OTH 14.5%

Local developments:
A small transfer of population (c.1,300) to Kildare Sth. Michael FitzPatrick has been seriously ill for some time, but he has been reported as seeking re-election, although a 2-candidate strategy may sink FF’s hopes of a single seat here, and Martin may intervene.

Likely candidates:
FF Brady , Fitzpatrick
FG Durkan, Anthony Lawlor
LP Stagg, John McGinley
SF Martin Kelly
GP Shane FitzGerald
OTH Catherine Murphy, Eric Doyle-Higgins, Bart Murphy

Projection based on poll
FF 8.6%
FG 28.9% 1 seat
LP 32.6% 2 seats
GP 1.0%
SF 5.5%
OTH 23.3% 1 seat

FF lose both seats, one to LP and one to Murphy. SF transfers are enough to ward off FG’s ambitions for a 2nd seat, unless LP vote split very badly.

Kildare S (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 50.4% 2 seats – Sean Power, Sean O’Fearghal
FG 17.2%
LP 20.7% 1 seat – Jack Wall
GP 6.2%
OTH 5.6%

Local developments:
Former Minister Sean Power has tried to put some distance between himself and the FF leadership. Jack Wall has stoutly resisted to date having to accept a running mate, and is believed to be hoping to pass the seat on to his son the following election, although I understnad that internal polls are resulting in pressure for him to accept a running mate. FG looking to win back a seat here for the first time since Alan Dukes was their local man.

Likely candidates:
FF Power, O’Fearghal
FG Martin Heydon
LP Wall
SF Jason Turner
OTH Paddy Kennedy, Clifford Reid

Projection based on poll
FF 27.8% 1 seat
FG 25% 1 seat
LP 33.5% 1 seat
GP 3.2%
SF 2.7%
OTH 7.9%

FG take a seat from FF (as expected by most, I think).

Laois-Offaly (5 seats)

2007 result
FF 56.4% 3 seats – Brian Cowen, Sean Fleming, John Maloney
FG 27.4% 2 seats – Olywn Enwright, Charlie Flanagan
LP 2.4%
GP 1.1%
SF 5.1%
OTH 8.6%

Local developments:
A population of c.4,000 in Roscrea is moved from here to Tipp Nth. Big leaders bonus here for Brian Cowen has just gone, and he announced today that he won’t be a candidate (although his brother Barry is very likely). John Moloney rumooured to be quitting. LP will be hoping that the poor LP track record here since Pat Gallagher quit politics will be reversed by their selection of former Leinster Express editor John Whelan, although the local row this provoked may not help him, whatever Oscar Wilde said about bad publicity…although the subsequent split among those who opposed him possibly vindicates LP’s decision to go with him. FG lose Olywn Enright and got almost exactly their national average vote here last time, but are talking up their chances of a third seat.

Likely candidates:
FF Cowen, Fleming, John Foley
FG Flanagan, Liam Quinn, Marcella Corcoran-Kennedy
LP Whelan
SF Brian Stanley
OTH John Leahy, Eddie FitzPatrick, Liam Dumpleton (ex-ULA, now IND), Ray FitzPatrick (ULA), James Fanning

Projection based on poll
FF 28.2% 2 seats
FG 38.5% 2 seats
LP 11.3%
GP 0.5%
SF 12.2% 1 seat
OTH 9.2%

FF lose a seat, with SF looking the best placed to take advantage, although LP are very close to taking a second FF seat

Limerick City (4 seats – reduced from 5 when Limerick East)
2007 result
FF 48.7% 2 seats – Willie O’Dea, Peter Power
FG 25.5% 2 seats – Micahel Noonan, Kieran O’Donnell
LP 10.3% 1 seat – Jan O’Sullivan
GP 2.6%
SF 4.2%
OTH 8.6%

Local developments:
Drops a seat and renamed from Limerick East, with FG-friendly rural wards (pop. c.17,000) deserting Kieran O’Donnell for the County. Willie O’Dea now hoping his removal from cabinet over slandering SF candidate Maurice Quinlivan will distance him from the Govt, and Quinlivan will doubtless be hoping that the trick of winning a court case will give him the sort of boost that helped Pearse Doherty. Both FF and FG may end up dropping a seat, with their better long-term bets (in Power and O’Donnell) losing out to men who probably will be contesting their final GE, and Jan O’Sullivan may have to split her vote generously if she is to pull in running mate Joe Leddin.

Likely candidates:
FF O’Dea, Power
FG Noonan, O’Donnell
LP O’Sullivan, Joe Leddin
SF Maurice Quinlivan
OTH Cian Prendeville (ULA), Kevin Kiely

Projection based on poll
FF 15.7% 1 seat
FG 34% 1 seat
LP 34.7% 2 seats
GP 0.1%
SF 8.4%
OTH 7.1%

O’Donnell (FG) and Power both lose out to the older hands on their ticket, with LP gaining one seat and one leaving the constituency altogether.

Limerick County (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 47.2% 2 seats – John Cregan, Niall Collins
FG 39.9% 1 seat – Dan Nevillle
LP 5.6%
GP 2.4%
SF 0.0%
OTH 4.8%

Local developments:
Gains a bit from Limerick East, and loses a bit to Kerry North. The third seat has done funny things here over the years, going to the PDs, and going to FG2 on one occasion as a result of IND FF candidates splitting the FF vote oddly once, and young LP candidate James Heffernan, who polled very well in the ’09 LEs will be hoping to provide the surprise here this time.

Likely candidates:
FF Cregan, Collins
FG Neville, William O’Donnell , Patrick O’Donovan
LP James Heffernan
Oth John Dillon

Projection based on poll
FF 24.0% 1 seats
FG 48.9% 2 seats
LP 18.4%
GP 1%
SF 2.4%
OTH 5.2%

Not Heffernan’s day on these figures- FF short of a quota, but close enough to hold one of their 2 seats, and FG have enough votes to take the other.

Longford-Westmeath (4 seats)
2007 result
FF 41.2% 2 seats – Mary O’Rourke, Peter Kelly
FG 30.9% 1 seat, James “Bonkers” Bannon
LP 17.7% 1 seat, Willie Penrose
GP 1.7%
SF 3.9%
OTH 4.6%

Local developments:
Former PD TD, Longford-based Mae Sexton, has provoked deja-vu among those who remember Helena McAuliffe Ennis, and apoplexy among others, by joining LP, and is well placed to take Peter Kelly’s seat if it stays in Longford, although FG have high hopes that Nicky McFadden will bring it across the county line to Westmeath.

Likely candidates:
FF O’Rourke, Kelly, Robert Troy
FG Bannon, McFadden, Peter Burke
LP Penrose, Sexton
SF Paul Hogan
OTH Kevin Moran

Projection based on poll
FF 19% 1 seats
FG 34.8% 1 seats
LP 34.1% 2 seats
GP 0.7%
SF 6.9%
OTH 4.4%

Close, but the addition of gender and county balance to the LP ticket here should be enough to take a second seat, given the SF transfers that will be on offer. Sexton will need some Westmeath votes though, as Penrose will be well aware.

Louth (5 seats)
2007 result
FF 42.1% 2 seats – Dermot Ahern, Seamus Kirk
FG 29.4% 1 seat – Fergus O’Dowd
LP 5.0%
GP 7.6%
SF 15.0% 1 seat – Arthur Morgan
OTH 0.9%

Local developments:
Hardly anything here really…. 😉 Dermot Ahern and Arthur Morgan are retiring, Seamus Kirk won’t be on the ballot as Ceann Comhairle, Gerry Adams seeks a seat in a national parliament (that he’d take) for the first time. Technically, the Baron has had to be appointed to a job that doesn’t really exist, in order to resign from a Parliament that he never actually attended. When East meets West, eh…?

LP looking to take the seat that Michael Bell held in the 80s, assisted not just by a Gilmore Gale but also a large chunk of Meath adjacent to Drogheda (pop. c.17,500) which perviously voted LP in large measure and which Drogheda based Ged Nash will be hoping will seal the deal for him. FG replace Mairead McGuiness with GAA man Peter FitzPatrick

Likely candidates:
FF James Carroll, Declan Breathnach
FG O’Dowd, Fitzpatrick
LP Nash, Mary Moran
GP Mark Deary
SF Adams
OTH Thomas Clare, Gerry Crilly

Projection based on poll
FF 8% 1 seat (CC)
FG 36.8% 2 seats
LP 17.5% 1 seat
GP 2%
SF 27.2% 1 seat
OTH 8.6%

FF lose Ahern’s seat to FitzPatrick, with LP picking up the extra seat in the Southern end of the constituency. Adams romps home.

Mayo (5 seats)

2007 result
FF 24.5% 1 seat – Dara Calleary
FG 53.8% 3 seats – Enda Kenny, Michael Ring, John O’Mahoney
LP 1.2%
GP 0.8%
SF 5.0%
OTH 14.7% 1 seat – Beverly Cooper-Class Act-Flynn

Local developments:
We need more politicians with convictions, they say, but they’re losing one here, with the retirement of Beverly Cooper-Flynn – much to the relief, one imagines, of Dara Calleary who should now be safe. FG leader Enda Kenny will again try for the feat of a 4th seat that they weren’t a million miles off last time, but will be hampered by the decision of ex Indo TD Dr Jerry Cowley to join LP, and also any Adams Avalanche. Word is that ex-LP member and Indo Cllr Michael Kilcoyne isn’t running.

Likely candidates:
FF Calleary
FG Kenny, Ring, O’Mahoney,Michelle Mulherin
LP Cowley
SF Rose Conway-Walsh, Therese Ruane

Projection based on poll
FF 18.7% 1 seats
FG 55.6% 3 seats
LP 8.1% 1 seat
SF 9.3%
OTH 8.4%

FG4 loses out the the last leftist standing, LP on these figures, with the decision of SF to run 2 candidates a strange one…..

Meath E (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 43.6% 2 seats, Mary Wallace, Thomas Byrne
FG 25.9% 1 seat – Shane McEntee
LP 11.9%
GP 3.1%
SF 3.9%
OTH 11.6%

Local developments:
The constituency loses the chunk to Louth and gains c.6.750 votes around Kells from Meath W, dropping the LP vote a percentage point or two. Mary Wallace, has retired, allowing Byrne at least some chance of making it.

Likely candidates:
FF Byrne
FG McEntee, Regina Doherty
LP Dominic Hannigan
SF Michael Gallagher

Projection based on poll
FF 15.1%
FG 40.3% 2 seats
LP 25.3% 1 seat
GP 0.3%
SF 8%
OTH 11%

FF lose both seats, one each to FG and LP.

Meath W (3 seats)

2007 result
FF 51.6% Noel Dempsey, Johnny Brady
FG 29.0% Damien English
LP 4.0%
GP 2.5%
SF 11.3%
OTH 1.6%

Local developments:
Loses Kells to Meath E. This combined with the retirement of Noel Dempsey is expected to give a boost to Navan-based Jenny McHugh who lives in that town and is principal of a local National School. FG and SF both have high hopes here also, with the latter talking up new canididate Peadar Toibin’s chances. Famously, FG supporter Sarah Carey just before the ’07 election said that if Graeme Geraghty ran for the Communist Party in Meath he would be elected, however he ran for FG and got 3%, so perhaps the marxist left will take a seat here in 2011.

Likely candidates:
FF Johnny Brady, Shane Cassells
FG English, Catherine Yore, Ray Butler
LP Jenny McHugh
SF Toibin
OTH Seamus McDonagh (WP)

Projection based on poll
FF 15.8%
FG 39.1% 1 seat
LP 17.1% 1 seat
GP 0.0%
SF 18.2% 1 seat
OTH 9.8%

FF lose both seats, one to LP and the other to SF, FG’s hopes of a 2nd seat being hampered by, IMO, crazy candidate strategy. Expect lots of pictures of Yore in the papers, btw….

Roscommon S Leitrim (3 seats)

2007 result
FF 38.8% 1 seat – Michael Finneran
FG 39.1% 2 seats, Frank Feighen, Denis Naughton
LP 1.8%
GP 1.8%
SF 8.4%
OTH 10.1%

Local developments:
A population of c.3,400 moves from the Leitrim part of this constituency to Sligo-N.Leitrim. Michael Finneran has surprised many by announcing his retirement. Indo candidate John Kelly did very well here in ’07, polling 10%, and LP will hope that his running under their banner will see them pull off an historic seat here. SF however got 4 times as many votes as their candidate last time, and if SF do very well this time, they will be hard to beat. Add to the mix Luke “Ming” Flanagan, who was elected in Kelly’s ward (alebeit with a much lower vote) in ’09, and who is Roscommon’s Mayor, a certain FG seat, a very likely FG 2nd seat, the locally resented partition of Leitrim, and FF hoping to hold on to what was Finneran’s seat, and this could be a long – and contested count.

Likely candidates:
FF Gerry Kilraine, Ivan Connaughton
FG Feighen, Naughton
LP Kelly
SF Martin Kenny
OTH Flanagan

Projection based on poll
FF 15.6%
FG 44% 2 seats
LP 11.1%
GP 0.7%
SF 13.8%
OTH 14.9% 1 seat

Finneran may have known something …. FF lose their seat here, on these figures Flanagan surfing a wave of Indo votes, although he and Kelly are very competitive and competing on the same patch – however wins that tussle appears very likely to be elected.

Sligo N Leitrim (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 41.0% 2 seats – Eamon Scanlon, Jimmy Devins
FG 39.3% 1 seat – John Perry
LP 3.9%
GP 3.0%
SF 11.7%
OTH 1.1%

Local developments:
Again there are local resentments about the partitiion of Leitrim between two constituencies unlikely to return a TD from that county. Here the two FF TDs are, somewhat bizarrely, not taking the FF whip, but voting with the government on every issue. Jimmy Devins won’t run again, leaving the task of holding the FF seat to his fellow “rebel” (ahem) Eamon Scanlon. FG2 will be hopeful of taking a seat, as will LP’s Susan O’Keefe, who polled respectably in Ireland-West in the Euros, but SF will consider themselves favourites to take a seat in this constituency if there is a surge to their party, particulary as they got a decent vote here even when polling 1-2% nationally. The dark horse will be Declan Bree (ULA), having taken a seat in the Sping Tide for LP, but since cast aside his Tankie principals for an alliance dominated by Trotskyists.

Likely candidates:
FF Eamon Scanlan, Marc McSharry
FG Perry, McLaughlin
LP Susan O’Keefe
SF Michael Colreavy
OTH Declan Bree, Gabriel McSharry , Michael Clarke

Projection based on poll
FF 17.9%
FG 43.2% 2 seats
LP 10.3%
GP 1%
SF 17% 1 seat
OTH 10.6%

FF lose both of their non-seats, one to FG and the other to SF.

Tipperary N (3 seats)

2007 result
FF 34.3% 1 seat – Maire Hocter
FG 15.9% 1 seat – Noel Coonan
LP 10.3%
GP 1.1%
SF 3.8%
OTH 34.7% 1 seat – Michael Lowry

Local developments:
Lowry Country. More? Oh, well Alan Kelly is running for LP, and so a rainforest of leaflets promoting him should go through the local letterboxes. But other than that, no, sorry. I’ve got nothing.

Likely candidates:
FF Hocter, Michael Smith (jnr)
FG Coonan
LP Alan Kelly
OTH Michael Lowry, Donal O’Regan

Projection based on poll
FF 13.5%
FG 23.4% 1 seat
LP 14.5% 1 seat
GP 0.4%
SF 6.5%
OTH 41.6% 1 seat

FF lose a seat to LP, although if Lowry had a running mate he’d probably take him/her in with him instead.

Tipperary S (3 seats)
2007 result
FF 46.4% 2 seats – Mattie McGrath, Martin Manseragh
FG 21.1% 1 seat Tom Hayes
LP 8.8%
GP 1.5%
SF 3.1%
OTH 19.1%

Local developments:
Mattie McGrath. Mattie McGrath! MATTIE MCGRATH!!!!
Did I mention Mattie McGrath?

Likely candidates:
FF Manseragh
FG Hayes, Michael Murphy
LP Phil Prendergast
SF Michael Brown
OTH Mattie McGrath (IFF), Seamus Healy (ULA)

Projection based on poll
FF 17%
FG 23.8% 1 seat
LP 13.5%
GP 0.5%
SF 5.9%
OTH 39.3% 2 seats

I’m calling it Mattie, ULA and FG, with LP getting ahead of Manseragh on transfers but just too far behind.

Waterford (4 seats)
2007 result
FF 46.4% 2 seats – Martin Cullen, Brendan Keaneally
FG 27.4% 1 seat – John Deasy
LP 11.3% 1 seat – Brian O’Shea
GP 2.1%
SF 6.7%
OTH 6.0%

Local developments:
Martin Cullen has retired, and FG have high hopes for Paudge Coffey to take his seat. Brian O’Shea has retired, and LP are running City-based John Ryan and Dungarvan based Ciara Conway. Ex-WP cllr John Halligan is also expected to poll well.

Likely candidates:
FF Kenneally
FG Deasy, Paudie Coffey
LP Ryan, Conway
SF David Cullinane
OTH Halligan, Joe Conway, Joe Tobin (WP), Ben Nutty

Projection based on poll
FF 13.1%
FG 36.2% 2 seats
LP 21.9% 1 seat
GP 0.0%
SF 11.5%
OTH 17.3% 1 seat

FF lose both seats, one to FG and the other to Halligan.

Wexford (5 seats)
2007 result
FF 42.2% 2 seats – Sean Connick, John Browne
FG 31.6% 2 seats -Paul Kehoe, Michael D’arcy
LP 13.4% 1 seat Brendan Howlin
GP 1.2%
SF 7.4%
OTH 3.9%

Local developments:
Contrary to earlier rumours, I’m now told that ex-SF candidate John Dwyer will be running as an Independent left-wing candidate, rather than hitch his wagon to the ULA. The outcome here could depend on whether Brendan Howlin splits his vote, as otherwise his running mate Pat Cody could lose out to SF, Dwyer or, conceivably, FG3. FF got just over their national vote here last time, and so require a significant recovery if Browne and Connick are to be doing more than fighting over a single seat.

Likely candidates:
FF Connick, Browne
FG Kehoe, Darcy, Liam Twoomey
LP Howlin, Cody
SF Anthony Kelly
OTH John Dwyer (IND), Seamus O’Brien (ULA)

Projection based on poll
FF 19.4% 1 seat
FG 36.6% 2 seats
LP 24.2% 2 seats
GP 0.7%
SF 8.5%
OTH 10.6%

FF lose a seat to Cody, who edges ahead of Cody of the pack, assuming he manages about 38-40% of the LP vote – much less and he’d most likely lose out. I’d not write off Dwyer though, and if he holds on to more of the SF vote than I’ve given him here, he could be in the running also.

Wicklow (5 seats)

2007 result
FF 38.0% 2 seats – Dick Roche, Joe Behan
FG 23.2% 2 seats – Andrew Doyle, Billy Timmons
LP 16.3% 1 seat – Liz McManus
GP 7.4%
SF 5.0%
OTH 10.1%

Local developments:
Joe Behan has since reigned from FF in protest over the early phase of the cuts, although since then has supported much harsher measures, and might decide against running again. Liz McManus has retired, and her son didn’t make it on the 3 person ticket that seems well balanced in terms of geography.

Likely candidates:
FF Dick Roche, Pat Fitzgerald
FG Doyle, Timmons, Simon Harris
LP Anne Ferris, Tom Fortune, Conal Kavanagh
SF John Brady
OTH Joe Behan, Robert Kearns, Peter Dempsey TC,Stephen Donnelly, Thomas Clarke, Gerry Kinsella, Pat Kavanagh

Projection based on poll
FF 8.8%
FG 33.2% 2 seats
LP 29.4% 2 seats
GP 2.4%
SF 10.2%
OTH 15.9% 1 seat

FF lose both the Roche and Behan seats, to LP and Behan, although SF very much in the mix.

———–

So that’s it. Next post will be post GE being called, and will have full details of the predictions competition.

D

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Written by Dotski

February 1, 2011 at 1:56 am

Posted in Uncategorized

20 Responses

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  1. Looking at North Dublin constituencies,

    Dublin NE – The loss of Edenmore will hit Seán Kenny. In the last 3 local elections, he has received the majority of the votes in that area. I would lean towards Larry O’Toole of Sinn Féin & Bohemians taking the last seat.

    Dublin West- Patrick Nulty is a weak candidate and while his election would give election day a “Portillo” moment, I just can’t see it. The LP will need serious vote management here for anything to happen.

    Dublin NW – You are giving the 2 right wing parties 29.3% between them and no seat. I wonder what the transfer rate will be? If Ellis falls below 20%, then he could be in trouble. Shortall is also running a very personalised campaign. She seems scared of young Mr. Lyons, who is well known locally. If there is a big difference between herself & Johnny, the LP could mess up badly here, as they did for example in 1969 when Gervaise (Gerry) Thornley’s father ran here. If Shortall takes say 30% of the vote here as is quite possible, then the last 2 seats could go anywhere. However you are most probably correct.

    Dublin Central – I just can’t see Perry taking out Mary Lou. She is older, wiser and a good deal more mature than the last time and less prone to putting her foot in it. I think she is also likely to pick up more transfers than he is. Clancy’s core area is Glasnevin/Drumcondra, her votes, if she is eliminated could go all over the place.

    Dublin N C – I am just not sure that Aodhán Ó Riordáin will do it here. Remember FF had 3 out of 4 here not too long ago. Ó Riordáin’s performance in the local elections was below the LP’s average in Dublin with 16.45% in historically their worst electoral area in Dublin. He will need to get every vote possible from the Artane end of the constituency. Had he been allowed to stay in Central, it might have been a different story, but you are probably correct.

    Finally, it is good to see Robert Dowds in with an excellent chance of a seat in DMW. Robert first stood in Local elections in Finglas in 1979 and is a strong Christian Socialist. As a proud member & active member of the Church of Ireland he would be a good addition to the Dáil

    Niall

    February 1, 2011 at 10:41 am

    • Niall,

      Thanks for that, agree that where you’ve taken issue with the predictions they could all go either way – a lot of twists and turns between now and polling day I suspect. Also interested to read about Robert Dowds, about whom I know very little – it does indeed sound like he could be a good addition to DE.

      Dotski

      February 4, 2011 at 11:07 pm

  2. Interesting as always Dotski.

    Think FF will do better than 19 seats, on the above figures there are plenty where an FF cand on 10-14% is missing out to an Ind or Lab cand on 12-16% so even a slight shift upwards in the polls might make them competitive again. I do appreciate a transfer difficulty but they may come from less traditional sources, e.g. an FG red scare follow through.

    Couple of point of information:

    Dublin South Central, Outgoing TD Michael Mulcahy TD is joined on the FF ticket by Cllr. Eamonn Walsh.

    Meath East – Sharon Kaeoghan, former member of the FF national executive is going it alone on what I gather to be a sort of IndoFF ticket.

    Kildare North – Can confirm both incumbent FF Deputies Michael Fitzpatrick and Aine Brady back in the hunt with both launching campaigns within past 48 hours.

    Kildare South – Allegedly FG are running scared of Indo Clifford “Stop the Paedophiles” Reid. Not sure how much substance to that rumour but gather at least part of it stems from geography.

    Prediction – FF on 20% in next poll ~ 25 seats.
    We’ll take that for week 1 🙂

    James Lawless

    February 1, 2011 at 11:19 am

    • Cheers James.

      I think you may well be right on FF – i do detect a certain ‘release’ among some FF members I know since the leadership changed, and a good leadership debate could put them back on the road, if not to govt, well to a much better place in opposition than current polls suggest. A hard fight though, and I don’t envy you it!

      Many thanks for the candidate information.

      D

      Dotski

      February 4, 2011 at 11:02 pm

  3. Galway West

    You are calling 2 left seats with Nolan and Connolly. How do you figure this?

    Forgotten liberal

    February 1, 2011 at 12:26 pm

    • You think Kevin Kiely’s decision to run as an independent is essentially it for Kieran O’ Donnell?

      HandsofBlue

      February 1, 2011 at 6:20 pm

      • I’d not write him off yet, last RedC showed FG well up, and if this is true he could take a second FG seat, but yeah, it’s not a good development for him I’d have thought.

        Dotski

        February 4, 2011 at 10:57 pm

    • basically there’s a big big swing to the left, LP are double or more their ’07 rating, SF are double or more their ’07 rating, OTH are well up on ’07 also, so 1 LP becoming 1 LP and 1 l/w indo is hardly surprising – sure MDH’s retirement will hit them, but FG have been hit by the retirement of their only TD also.

      Dotski

      February 4, 2011 at 11:00 pm

  4. A lot of people in Limerick are saying Willie O’Dea has had his day. Can’t see him beating O’Donnell on only 17%.

    Brian

    February 1, 2011 at 8:05 pm

  5. Also in Limerick County, John Cregan has announced he’s not running. I’m not sure if this is good for Collins but it’s probably bad for FF.

    Brian

    February 1, 2011 at 8:11 pm

  6. […] most recent constituency-by-constituency analysis based on national […]

  7. Great stuff as usual Dotski, but I would take issue with the claim of rival ULA campaigns in DMW, Rob and Gino having completely different support bases. The decision to run two candidates (passed without incident by all ULA groupings) is based more on a long-term strategy with the local elections in mind. They’re no more rival than any other political formation running 2 candidates for strategic reasons.

    Budapestkick

    February 1, 2011 at 10:23 pm

  8. Possibly a nuanced point but … 🙂

    For Dublin Mid West, the word “rival” is probably a bit strong for the two ULA candidates. Neither expects to win, and both are running with a view to building support so both can get seats in the next locals. Not exactly co-operating, but ‘rivals’ isn’t quite right either.

    Tomboktu

    February 2, 2011 at 12:04 am

    • Tomboktu/Budapestick,

      Sorry if the ULA thing came across as a bit “off”- I do think though that if there’s 2 ULA candidates in DMW and only one had that Joe Higgins supports them on their posters, it will look very odd to potential ULA voters – there’s 2 LP candidates in my area, and if one and only one had “Supported by Eamon Gilmore” it would have the locals wondering what was going on.

      Just my tuppence worth…

      Dotski

      February 4, 2011 at 10:56 pm

  9. OK – excuse the lengthy reply which turns out, in the end, to be not so very different to your own analysis! And thanks for the amazing work!

    AGREE
    Cavan-Monaghan (5 seats)
    FF 1 FG 2 SF 2
    Clare (4 seats)
    FF 1 FG 2 Breen IND 1
    Cork E (4 seats)
    FG 2 Lab 2
    Cork NC (4 seats)
    FG 2 Lab 1 SP (Barry) 1
    Cork NW (3 seats)
    FF 1 FG 2
    Cork SC (5 seats)
    FF 1 FG 2 Lab 2
    Donegal NE (3 seats)
    FF 1 FG 1 SF 1
    Dublin Mid-West
    FG 1 Lab 2 SF 1
    Dublin NW (3 seats)
    Lab 2 SF 1
    Dublin S (5 seats)
    FG 2 Lab 2 IND Ross 1
    (Conor’s arrival isn’t going to change this)
    Dublin SC (5 seats)
    FG 1 Lab 2 SF 1 ULA 1
    Dublin SE (4 seats)
    FG 1 Lab 2 OTH 1
    You don’t specify which OTH –presume you mean Somerville? Hmmm … not sure he will go down as well as Ross. Could Andrews hold on? Nah.
    Dublin SW (4 seats)
    FG 1 Lab 2 SF 1
    Dublin W (4 seats)
    FG 1 Lab 2 SP 1
    Galway E (4 seats)
    FF 1 FG 2 Lab 1
    (but one of the toughest constituencies in the whole election to call)
    Galway W (5 seats)
    FF 1 FG 1 Lab 1 IND 2 (Grealish, Connolly)
    Kerry N – W Limerick (3 seats)
    FG 1 Lab 1 SF 1
    (but the point about a possible FG 2 is well taken)
    Kerry S (3 seats)
    FG 1 Lab 1 OTH 1
    Kildare S (3 seats)
    FF 1 FG 1 Lab 1
    Laois-Offaly (5 seats)
    FF2 FG 2 SF 1
    Would love Lab to take one of the FF seats but – at the moment – doesn’t look like it is going to happen.
    Limerick City (4 seats – reduced from 5 when Limerick East)
    FF 1 FG 1 Lab 2
    Limerick County (3 seats)
    FF 1 FG 2
    Longford-Westmeath (4 seats)
    FF 1 FG 1 Lab 2
    Louth (5 seats)
    FF 1 FG 2 Lab 1 SF 1
    (Why are SF not running a second candidate here ?)
    Mayo (5 seats)
    FF 1 FG 3 Lab 1
    Meath E (3 seats)
    FG 2 Lab 1
    Meath W (3 seats)
    FG 1 Lab 1 SF 1
    Roscommon S Leitrim (3 seats)
    FG 2 OTH 1
    (I have a bottle of champagne-type wine in the fridge; I will crack it open when Ming the Merciless is elected!!)
    Sligo N Leitrim (3 seats)
    FG 2 SF 1
    Tipperary N (3 seats)
    FG 1 Lab 1 OTH 1
    Waterford (4 seats)
    FG 1 Lab 1 Halligan 1
    Wexford (5 seats)
    FF 1 FG 2 Lab 2
    Wicklow (5 seats)
    FG 2 Lab 2 OTH 1

    AGREE….BUT
    Dublin N (4 seats)
    FG 1 Lab 2 SP 1
    (though I really, really wonder whether FF mightn’t hang on here at the expense of the Labour second seat)

    DISAGREE

    Carlow-Kilkenny (5 seats)
    Projection FF 2 FG 2 LP 1
    Overall, I thought your projections were too negative towards FF but here the opposite: LP to pick up the second FF seat FF 1 FG 2 LP 2

    Cork SW (3 seats)
    Projection FF1 FG 1 Lab 1
    Don’t see Labour picking up the FG seat here
    FF 1 FG 2

    Donegal SW (3 seats)
    Projection FG 1 SF 1 OTH 1
    Don’t quite see Pringle picking off Coughlan
    FF1 FG 1 SF1

    Dublin C (4 seats)
    Projection FG 1 Lab 1 OTH 2
    Nah, Mary Lou will make it.
    FG 1 Lab 1 SF 1 OTH 1

    Dublin NC (3 seats)
    Projection: FG 1 Lab 1 OTH 1
    I would love this to be true. But … I think the Haughey will hang on
    FF1 FG 1 OTH 1

    Dublin NE (3 seats)
    Projection: FG 1 Lab 2
    Can’t see it – Larry is going to romp in
    FG 1 Lab 1 SF 1

    Dun Laoghaire (4 seats)
    Projection: FG 1 Lab 2 ULA 1
    Yeah. Would like this but not sure Bacik is the right candidate, FG are disorganised. Enough of Andrews’ transfers might just transfer to Hanafin to get her home.
    FF 1 FG 1 Lab 1 ULA 1

    Kildare N (4 seats)
    Projection: FG 1 Lab 2 IND 1
    Figure Martin will intervene, impose one candidate and FF will hang on
    FF 1 FG 2 Lab 1

    Tipperary S (3 seats)
    Projection: FG 1 Healy ULA 1 Mattie 1
    OK – triumph of hope over sense but I just do NOT want to believe that the archetypal hypocrite and chancer will make it. So …
    FG 1 Lab 1 Healy ULA 1

    Your total
    FF 16% (19 seats)
    FG 33.5% (62 seats)
    LP 22.5% (50 seats)
    SF 11.5% (13 seats)
    GP 1.5% (0 seats)
    OTH 15% (22 seats)

    My total
    FF 22
    FG 63
    LP 47
    SF 15
    GP 0
    OTH 19

    Ruairi O hEithir

    February 2, 2011 at 12:14 am

    • Ruairi,

      Great post, enjoyed reading it, you should enter the prediction competition. Even on the ones we disagree, I think could go either way. Mind you, if you’re going to celebrate Ming being elected, I can think of something other than champagne that might be mroe appropriate! 😉

      D

      Dotski

      February 4, 2011 at 10:52 pm

      • The two times I tried it in college (a LONG time ago) I came out in an all-over-body rash so I figured on sticking to the more socially-accepted (and legal) alternatives!

        Ruairi

        February 4, 2011 at 10:59 pm

        • LOL! have you tried baking with it? (God I sound like a middle-aged hippy!)

          Dotski

          February 4, 2011 at 11:09 pm

  10. Hi dotski

    Fantastic information do you have any more recent poll imformation

    Seosamh

    February 4, 2011 at 2:43 pm

    • Hi Seosamh!

      many thanks. Next poll I’m aware of is a RedC on the SBP – I understand it was completed today and is with SBP, I suspect it will be leaked around 5pm tomorrow (sat.). I heard the Sindo may have a poll also based on ballot papers (although that would understate parties with a lot of new candidates who are just getting them known to voters), but I don’t know if that’s definite.

      D

      Dotski

      February 4, 2011 at 10:32 pm


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