Irish Polling Report

A place to discuss Irish opinion polls

11 and a half hours!

with 11 comments

Well, a third poll in 24 hours, this time from MRBI in tomorrow’s Irish Times. The missus is not pleased ….. 😉

This time, the figures are a lot closer to the Lansdowne poll in this morning’s Indo, and the numbers all companies had last week. Figures (with seat projections from me) are;

FF 15% – 17
FG 33% – 61
LP 24% – 53
SF 12% – 14
GP 1% – 0
OTH 15%-21

FF will be disappointed that the boost they got in the RedC/Paddy Power reported today isn’t borne out here. They may recover, but it appears that if they do it will be a long road back for them.

The more impulsive of FG supporters may be upset to see the 37% figure they got earlier today from RedC contradicted, but at least it’s ahead of the 30% they got in Lansdowne/MB last night, and at 33% is pretty much dead centre of the two. Cannier heads in FG may see this as a good poll, as scaremongering about a majority FG govt with Leo V as Finance Minister will seem less credible.

LP …. well, I’d say relief more than anything. Having got 24% in L/MB, the 19% in RedC was, as I said, not a good result. Had it been corroborated by this poll, they may have started panicking. Now, 2 of the 3 companies have them 24%, and within shooting distance of FG, which they need for their strategy to be credible. Similarly OTH, who had a nasty downwards lurch in the RedC, and they’ll be delighted to be back where other polls, including RedC, had them last week.

SF will be happy – steady as she goes, and GP will be hoping for some sort of game changer, as they are struggling to be even heard at present.

Hopefully no more polls until the SBP/RedC at the weekend – but if you need a ‘statto’ fix, why not enter the prediction competition here ?

D

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Written by Dotski

February 2, 2011 at 10:51 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

11 Responses

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  1. Not that I want to load more work on you, nor indeed inconvenience for your dear missus, but graphs would be nice …any way to get them up here? there are so many polls, that the trends are probably more important than the actual poll numbers…also, any poll of polls thought? great work though, I bow to your efforts 🙂

    TonyB

    February 2, 2011 at 11:05 pm

  2. In spite of a 9% difference, FG and LAB are just 8 seats apart? As I said on p.ie, is this to do with LAB being expected to get far more transfers than FG?

    RahenyFG

    February 2, 2011 at 11:12 pm

    • will be doing a piece on this in the next few days, but largely yes. Small parties usually do much worse on seats to votes ratios, as most of their votes are “wasted” in constituencies where they don’t get a single TD, but LP still managed to get 20 seats on 10% in the last 2 GEs as a result of having good transfers, and would be expected generally to improve this ratio on a bigger FPV.

      They now are getting seats in most constituencies (pushing up the ratio) and also there are more left-wing transfers a-going from unsuccessful left-wing candidates (SF and some ULA etc) which predictably results in better numbers of transfers, and also improving the ratio.

      FG are in contrast hit by the double impact of (a) no more unused PD FPVs transferring to them, and (b) more often SF are about competing with them for those LP transfers that are a-going.

      Of course, a change in fortunes and this could change (see today’s RedC poll) but this is where the cards appear to fall in this poll rating.

      Dotski

      February 2, 2011 at 11:19 pm

      • I’ve heard quite a few people talking about going from FF to FG. I didn’t think I’d believe it, but there could be a significant change of roles here – not to a rainbow type government, but to one where FG genuinely dominate, and could have a number of options in terms of forming a government – Labour just being one. There are some conventions going to be blown away at this election. New rules!

        TonyB

        February 3, 2011 at 12:20 am

  3. Labour too high and FF too low dOTSKI. It s just not possible.

    45- lp
    22- FF

    Forgotten liberal

    February 3, 2011 at 12:36 pm

    • it is really …. try the prediction competition though and see what your projections throw out – one never knows….

      Dotski

      February 4, 2011 at 10:34 pm

  4. I concur with some of the other comments above and based on polls and your extrapolations etc, taking the 2007 GE and the 2009 Locals, I estimate the figures as follows (especially as Others get much too much too and that is in contradiction of your model and hypotheses)

    FF 15% – 17 – 27 (biggest bounce & strict management)
    FG 33% – 61 – 65 (got a large bounce 2009 locals)
    LP 24% – 53 – 45 (little bounce 2009)
    SF 12% – 14 – 14
    GP 1% – 0
    OTH 15%-21 – 15

    Food for thought.

    KevinO

    February 3, 2011 at 2:45 pm

  5. I was speaking to some LP people in relation to Donegal NE. Their view is that there is no FF seat there at all. Neither of their two TDs elected last time are running, Ms Keaveney a former TD & Senator didn’t bother to put her name in the hat. The FF candidate is from the arsehole of Inisowen, while the LP candidate is from the populous part around Letterkenny. It should also be remembered that this is the constituency with the largest % of Protestants on this side of the border. The bookies don’t suggest an upset, but might be work a €20 flutter.

    Niall

    February 5, 2011 at 2:30 pm

    • Have seen Harte tipped as being in the mix from someone who rubbished McBrearty’s chances on p.ie (so not a LP supporter), so it does appear that he’s seen as a contender over the likely lack of Letterkenny representation. Paddy Power (who are very stingy with their odds generally) have him 4th favourite at 9/4

      Dotski

      February 5, 2011 at 2:41 pm


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