12 hours

It now appears that even half a day is a long time in politics. Only last night, this mornings Lansdowne/MB poll was recording a drop of 4% in FG’s support, and now a poll run by RedC over (roughly) the same period shows an increase of the same amount. While polls will often disagree on party levels, they really shouldn’t disagree on the trends, which leaves us to conclude that one of these may be, to come extent, a rogue poll. Either that, or FG are in the 33-34% range that both companies had them last week, and the two ratings of 30% and 37% are outliers at the limit of the margin of error (which is statistically unlikely, but not impossible). Both companies have a comparable record in predicting General Election results, and so, while many partisans will choose the company that gives a higher rating for their party (particularly on p.ie), and some pessimists may choose the lower, I’m personally inclined to think that the average of the two ratings is the most reliable of the lot.

Only time (and further polling evidence) will tell.

Anyways, the RedC/Paddy Power. Poll ratings (and seat projections) are as follows;

FF 18%-26
FG 37%-72
LP 19%-34
SF 12%-15
GP 3%-1
OTH 11%-18

Starkest movements here (only ones outside the margin of error) are FG up 4%, and OTH down 4%. It’s hard to be sure what is behind this movement, given how little has happened in the intervening period. Perhaps there was a cohort out there that was awaiting McWilliams to launch his “New Ireland” movement as a political force, and having seen him decline to do so are going to FG. But 37% is the highest in RedC for an eternity, and they have been 30-36% in their ratings since October 2008. If this isn’t an outlyer but represents a sudden trend towards FG, talk of an overall majority for FG, or at least a minority FG administration with support from FF or “independents” such as Shane Ross, can’t be discounted.

FF will also be pleased at this poll finding. Despite not enjoying any significant new leaders bounce in last week’s RedC poll (and polling an identical 16% in the L/MB polls) they appear to have started making headway since then. This would be unusual, as it would be more normal for the party to get a bigger bounce immediately upon changing leader and then fall back a bit, and it’s possible that it means that Cowen’s continued position as Taoiseach means that it is only dawning on some voters that there has in fact been a change of leadership in the party. If this is the case, they may make further gains in the coming week.

LP are down, and while it is in the margin or error, they will be concerned, as it is one of a number of such polls in RedC, with a cumulative figure that is very much outside the margin of error. They need the launch of their campaign to start moving them I the opposite direction if they are to have the sort of election that will break new ground for them. Only yesterday they were at 24% in Lansdowne, and a 5% differential will make them nervous, particularly those candidates who had expected to be competing with FG for the last seat. I understand the SBP will have weekly RedC polls form now on, and Labour will be looking to be back up to at least 20% in that if their nerves are to be steadied, as FF are now just 1% behind them. Even if they stabilise at 19%, the next poll won’t be good news for them.

SF will be satisfied, I suspect, at holding their support relatively level, and GP would no doubt be happier with the 3% recorded here than the 1% yesterday. But all those supporting candidates in the OTH category will be nervously wondering what the big drop in support for them means.

Finally, as I said, I’d be inclined to consider the average of the two polling company figures as, most likely, closest to where we’re at at the moment (certainly it’s closer to the polls that were out before these two). This, when fed into the spreadsheet comes out at;

FF 17% – 19
FG 33.5% – 63
LP 21.5% – 45
SF 12.5% – 18
GP 2% – 0
OTH 13.5% – 21

I suspect that these totals are going to move a lot over the next 3 weeks…..