Irish Polling Report

A place to discuss Irish opinion polls

Table toppers

with 10 comments

Folks,

Family stuff has meant I’ve not had the time to write a narrative over each constituency, but you can find below the output of the most recent RedC poll in table format (please let me know if you have any difficulties reading it on your PC, I know another bloggers whose tables only read OK in Firefox).  The format (if you find it hard to read) is Constituency name; Number of seats; FF share of vote, FF seats;FG share of votes;FG share of seats etc, followed by LP, GP, SF & OTH.  If you have any difficulties, please try downloading the PDF version at https://irishpollingreport.files.wordpress.com/2011/02/redc-feb13.pdf

I’ve been following the regional patterns in the polls with interest, as they’ve had a slight deviation from what the spreadsheet was throwing up (noticeably a higher LP vote in Connaught-Ulster), but given the much higher margin of error in these and the fact that they are often only partially reported, I had to date decided against making an adjustment based on them, but last week Prof Michael Marsh of TCD did an analysis of the composite of these that would have a very low margin of error.  Now, you might say that this is not a good measure of current party support in the respective regions, given the timescale involved, and you’d be right, but that doesn’t actually matter for the purposes of this.  What matters with the spreadsheet is that the distribution of the votes is correct, as it simply takes the national totals and distributes them in a way that strives to be the likeliest distribution at their respective party levels in each constituency.

Now, no doubt you’ll disagree with the likely outcomes in terms of seats in a number of constituencies, and that’s grand, I’d not expect two people to agree on all 43 projections, but I’ve a good track record on these before and have been hard on LP in particular to overcome any bias, and am generally assuming a poor split where they’ve a sitting TD running with a new candidate, and transfers from other left candidates no higher than ’07 (and lower when competing with SF).  I’m also assuming much poorer transfers from FG to LP this time, given the way the campaign has gone.

There will be a few constituencies where the result will appear to have given a party a seat too much, and most often this is a result of a ‘spare’ quota largely squatting among disparate OTH candidates.  For example, in Carlow-Kilkenny FG have 37.8% of the vote or 2.27 quotas, but would go from 1 seat to 3.  Similarly in Cavan-Monaghan, where they are projected as getting 39.1%.  In both constituencies, they are looking at an OTH vote of 10-13%, without an obvious individual likely to consolidate that into a seat-winning campaign, and while they may not especially favour FG, they would have to favour LP and/or SF very substantially for the benefit not to accrue to Kenny.  I don’t believe they will, and there will be a lot of those votes which peter out long before reaching a successful candidate.

In terms of overall analysis, as I said yesterday, I think it’s pretty clear that if the current momentum continues, Kenny will be Taoiseach, and most likely Gilmore will be leader of the opposition.   The fallback in FF’s fortunes continues to surprise me, and if it continues they will return a very weakened parliamentary party  to DE next month.  SF’s drop may only be a statistical blip, but I’d imagine they’ll be eyeing nervously the next poll (rumoured to be Lansdowne/Millward Brown in the Indo next week), as memories of their last minute dip in ’07 are fresh enough.  I suspect they may end up on around 10% come polling day, which while down on their previous poll ratings, would still see them return more than 10 seats, and if more fortunate, could even yield mid-teens in their next PP.

Anyways, read them and weep.  (I know I did…)

D



FF FG
LP
GP
SF
OTH
Carlow-Kilkenny 5 24.1% 1 37.8% 3 12.7% 1 6.2%
6.6% 12.6%
Cavan-Monaghan 5 16.1% 1 39.1% 3 4.7% 2.2%
27.9% 1 10.0%
Clare 4 20.6% 1 45.5% 2 8.5% 3.7%
5.7%
16.0% 1
Cork E 4 15.9% 1 36.9% 2 31.0% 1 1.8%
8.7%
5.6%
Cork NC 4 9.8%
40.4% 2 22.0% 1 2.0%
11.3% 1 14.5%
Cork NW 3 30.2% 1 46.9% 2 11.0% 2.5%
4.9%
4.7%
Cork SC 5 17.3% 1 41.4% 3 17.2% 1 5.0%
7.3% 11.8%
Cork SW 3 22.4% 1 39.7% 1 18.4% 1 5.1%
7.6%
6.8%
Donegal NE 3 21.2% 1 33.1% 1 12.8%
1.1%
22.8% 1 9.0%
Donegal SW 3 19.0% 29.1% 1 9.2% 0.9%
28.0% 1 13.7% 1
Dublin C 4 4.5%
20.7% 1 31.2% 1 1.5%
12.1% 1 30.0% 1
Dublin Mid-West 4 9.6% 31.4% 2 27.0% 2 8.7%
11.5% 11.9%
Dublin N 4 13.0% 29.6% 1 22.5% 1 13.7% 1 0.0%
21.2% 1
Dublin NC 3 11.5%
39.1% 1 18.3% 1 3.4%
7.6%
20.1% 1
Dublin NE 3 7.8%
33.0% 1 31.7% 1 3.5%
15.2% 1 8.8%
Dublin NW 3 12.5%
21.9% 1 38.2% 1 1.4%
19.3% 1 6.7%
Dublin S 5 8.2% 36.0% 2 23.8% 1 9.2% 1 4.0%
18.8% 1
Dublin SC 5 4.4%
22.6% 1 41.6% 3 1.4%
10.8% 19.1% 1
Dublin SE 4 11.3% 28.9% 1 26.3% 2 9.9%
5.3%
18.3% 1
Dublin SW 4 9.0%
32.2% 1 28.6% 2 2.2%
18.4% 1 9.6%
Dublin W 4 13.7% 24.9% 1 34.1% 2 0.7%
6.9%
19.8% 1
Dun Laoghaire 4 11.7% 28.8% 1 31.7% 2 4.6%
3.6%
19.6% 1
Galway E 4 13.5% 51.5% 2 15.7% 1 0.1%
5.2%
14.0% 1
Galway W 5 12.2% 1 35.9% 2 15.2% 1 4.3%
5.8%
26.6% 1
Kerry N 3 13.3%
39.3% 1 15.2% 1 1.2%
24.9% 1 6.0%
Kerry S 3 15.5% 31.1% 1 16.9% 0.5%
5.9%
30.1% 2
Kildare N 4 8.6%
35.5% 2 29.0% 1 3.3%
4.8%
18.7% 1
Kildare S 3 23.1% 1 24.6% 1 29.9% 1 5.5%
4.6%
12.3%
Laois-Offaly 5 27.6% 1 40.2% 3 9.9% 1 1.0%
9.8% 11.5%
Limerick E 4 14.3% 1 39.5% 2 26.8% 1 1.8%
7.1%
10.6%
Limerick W 3 22.8% 1 51.6% 2 18.8% 1.9%
1.7%
3.3%
Longford-Westmeath 4 18.1% 1 38.5% 2 32.0% 1 0.5%
6.2%
4.7%
Louth 5 7.2% 1 42.4% 2 14.8% 1 4.7%
24.7% 1 6.3%
Mayo 5 16.7% 1 58.7% 3 6.6% 0.0%
8.3% 9.7% 1
Meath E 3 14.7% 47.0% 2 22.9% 1 2.0%
6.8%
6.7%
Meath W 3 13.4% 46.7% 2 13.9% 1 0.9%
16.4% 8.7%
Roscommon S Leitrim 3 14.3%
46.8% 2 12.0% 1.4%
11.4% 14.1% 1
Sligo N Leitrim 3 17.2% 45.6% 2 8.4% 1.3%
14.4% 1 13.1%
Tipperary N 3 13.4%
31.6% 1 15.2% 1 0.6%
6.1%
33.1% 1
Tipperary S 3 13.5% 29.5% 1 14.4% 0.5%
5.2%
36.9% 2
Waterford 4 11.3% 42.9% 2 20.8% 1 0.1%
10.3% 14.6% 1
Wexford 5 18.9% 1 39.9% 2 21.1% 1 1.4%
7.2% 11.6% 1
Wicklow 5 8.7% 39.4% 2 27.6% 2 3.5%
9.0% 11.9% 1

166 FF 17 FG 73 LP 40 GP 2 SF 11 OTH 23

% seats
% of seats








FF 15.0% 17
10.2%








FG 38.0% 73
44.0%








LP 20.0% 40
24.1%








GP 3.0% 2
1.2%








SF 10.0% 11
6.6%








oth 14.0% 23
13.9%








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Written by Dotski

February 13, 2011 at 10:32 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

10 Responses

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  1. thank you very much Dotski

    very interesting reading.
    i wouldn’t get too despondent.
    i think 38% will be FG’s high water mark, but they won’t drop either.
    there’s plenty potential for FF to implode yet, now that the Martin bounce is a dead cat one, and Labour are strongly positioned to pick up a lot of those.

    a few points:
    word on the ground is that McLellan is flying in Cork East and FF are in freefall. i’d say 2fg, 1lab, 1sf there.

    Kelleher is in mortal danger in CNC, in agreement with your projection. i don’t know if it mentioned was here or elsewhere, but the guy who ran Cork City FC into the ground is canvassing for him. it is a red-rag issue in a sports mad city. i expect SF to comfortably win a seat here, and that Gilroy, not Lynch will be the Lab seat.

    CSC: Pat Kenny debate has played strongly down here and has assured FF of 3rd seat. Desmond has helped her cause because of that debate, but Lynch too unevenly ahead of her ( i like her more than him though) @sendboyle will be mortified by his tally

    CSW/CNW: i am not familiar enough with these locally to give much feedback.

    BTW, who is the other in Mayo?

    bprob

    February 13, 2011 at 11:34 pm

    • Hi! Not really despondent, but certainly I think LP have to pull it out a bit more (whatever strategy they use). I’d agree FG are unlikely to end up too far from 38% at this stage, but on the other hand as you say FF appear to be confirmed in 3rd. This time last year LP were 10% behind FF (17% vs 27% with FG at 34%) and so it would be a great result still, just short of what they could have achieved if, say, they’d made Quinn Finance spokesperson 6 months ago.

      Am interested in the info on Cork E – I had heard that she was a good candidate, and the SF vote there is projected was quite high (not including this poll where they are low nationally), even without an adjustment for her over-performing the national swing. Certainly if she gets ahead of Mulvihill and gets a decent transfer from him I’d not write her off. One to watch.

      Interested to hear Cork City FC connection and Kelleher, as LOI fan I could understand the reaction. Would be amazing if they lose that second seat, and terrible for Martin on his doorstep. A poor election result, and he could be a very short-lived leader.

      CSC am unsure how to call it as a result of the martin issue, have given them a ‘leaders bonus’ of 20% but as you say may be greater, but the problem is that it may be a very lop-sided vote, whatever they try, given how hard it is to corral a ‘leaders’ vote. But a friend who is LP leaning in Cork City did say to me that she was “worried” at the number of ppl she knew who were switching to him on the grounds that he is a local…

      Re Mayo, late entry, but Michael Kilcoyne had indicated that he wasn’t running, and then entered quite late. He’s ex-LP, a Stiptu man, and a consumer advocate (on the TV a bit). I’d expect him to do well on SF and LP transfers, and on these figures pull it off, although as I say OTH are very hard to call on the basis of national polls. he will though be dependent on there being a section of the electorate who are looking to the Indos, and if that dissipates, he’ll probably fall short.

      Anyways, work tomorrow, I’d better head!

      D

      Dotski

      February 14, 2011 at 12:16 am

      • i meant to type FG for 3 seats in CSC, not FF, sorry.

        i don’t see a bounce for Martin personally on the ground. he has made his own seat safe now, but McGrath is a goner.

        perhaps my feelings about CNC are incorrect, after this morning’s Irish Times/MRBI poll of the constituency. Lynch looks stronger than i thought, according to it, and although i still remain to be convinced, it seems 3 left wing seats are a very strong possibility.

        maybe a probability at this stage? only way this won’t happen is if FG2 stays ahead of Kelleher, and Kelleher is eliminated sooner?

        bprob

        February 14, 2011 at 9:02 pm

  2. […] election campaigning and aghast at the thought of eleven more days, cut to the chase by allowing Irish Polling Report give you an advance look at the actual results from each of the 43 constituencies.  Mathematics, […]

  3. Laois Offaly will return 2 seats for FF. Labour will not feature. SF candidate Brian Stanley will increase his vote substantially but FG must be good for 3 seats.

    Michael Moloney

    February 14, 2011 at 3:16 pm

    • Hard to see the left not returning a seat on the national figures Michael, but if so it would indicate that the swing isn’t getting as much traction in the midlands.

      If you hear any internal polls there I’ll be very interested!

      D

      Dotski

      February 14, 2011 at 11:02 pm

  4. Hi dotski

    Can you tell us who are the 23 independents you think are going to be elected?

    I’m very interested to see who you’ve given a seat to in Dublin South East.

    The Sunday Independent poll has Paul Sommerville as the top indpendent with 3%.

    Ste

    February 14, 2011 at 3:25 pm

    • Hi Ste,

      Not decided, but there are 2 in particular who would consider themselves in the running, Mannix Flynn and Somervile. The Sindo poll was done by Quantum Research, and there are very significant questions about how, or even whether, they conduct their surveys, so I’d not put much store in that figure, although I would personally agree that he’s probably over-rated among online pundits.

      On these figures, if Indos attract those sort of figures national polls are predicting, there should be a decent FPV for them in Dublin SE, and getting ahead of the of SF should put someone like Flynn ahead of the GP on their transfers, and then ahead of FF on GP transfers and facing off FG2 for the last seat.

      Personally though I think the OTH vote may be squeezed as we approach polling day, and if that’s the case, FG2 (or “Zoolander” as he’s fondly known) may slip in.

      Dotski

      February 14, 2011 at 10:58 pm

  5. Any thoughts on the MRBI Cork North Central poll in today’s Times (more especially on the difference in the FG vote)?

    Lab 28, FG 20, SF 16, SP 13, FF 13, WP 4, GP 1, Oth 4.

    Paddy M

    February 14, 2011 at 7:03 pm

  6. […] […]


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