Some of the crowd are on the pitch…..

Well, another two polls today. A Hearld Poll of Dublin (using L/MB) as indicated that LP maintain their lead in the Capital, but all eyes this evening are on an national poll from them, in tomorrows Indo, which shows FG pulling well ahead of LP, , and FF and SF falling further behind the second party. While the poll was taken over the weekend, before the Valentine’s Night debate, indications are that this didn’t sway many – if any – voters, and so we can I think say that, short of a car crash moment, FG will emerge from the election as the largest party with LP the second biggest, and the only question now is whether Kenny & Co. will have the option of ruling without LP.

Anyways, the result, with the projections from the spreadsheet in brackets;

FF 12% (8 seats)
FG 38% (74 seats)
LP 23% (49 seats)
SF 10% (8 seats)
GP 1% (0 seats)
OTH 16% (27 seats)

Obviously, the apparent collapse in the FF vote is of course remarkable – but 8 seats? Well, maybe not, but that’s roughly what they’re looking at on these figures. Their big problem is that the areas where they may expect to get about a half above their national polling are largely in 3-seaters in the West of Ireland. To get getting 20%+ in those areas while 12% nationally, they’d have to be averaging 6% or so in places like Dublin , where they’re closer to 10%. Add to this and a transfer repellent brand, and they are utterly dependent on improving their FPV on the day. Now, they may do so, but any ‘Martin Bounce’ has been and gone, and this poll was taken after Martin was adjudged to have won the TV3 debate, so there’s no guarantee they’ll make up ground, and indeed could even lose some, as they may become to be seen as irrelevant – any hope they had of catching LP for 2nd place are surely gone now, with a vote of around half that of LP.

FG will be cock-a-hoop. Two polls in a row, from different companies, showing them at 38%. They go into the last week of the campaign assured of being the largest party after the election, and require only a small swing to get an overall majority. Even on these figures, there are Indos in Monaghan, Clare, DubS, GalE, GalW, KerryS, Mayo, Roscommon, TippN, TippS, Wicklow & poss. DSE that might be open to a deal (in the national interest, of course), which could give them an overall majority.

LP may prefer to not be down 1%, but given the movement in other polls they can’t be surprised, and indeed may even be relieved. It does seem likely that they’ve lost ground to FG on their right, but have gained an almost equivalent amount on their left. They have a week left to push their way back into contention, and it now seems to be a question as to whether Gilmore will be Tanaiste or Leader of the Opposition. Neither would be a poor result for a party historically used to being 10-15%, and to double this would be a historically brilliant result. However, if they don’t improve on it over the last week, they will look back on this as an opportunity missed.

SF will be concerned. Two polls now in a row, from different companies, both showing them at 10%. Again, that would be about half higher than last GE and a good result, but in the 10 polls between 3rd December and 6th February they averaged 13.2%, but two polls at 10% in a couple of days suggests that some of this has slipped. They will hope that Gerry Adams much improved performance in yesterday’s leader debate will turn this around, but there’ll be some nerves in Parnell Square reading these figures.

GP …. well … 1% in one poll, 3% in another ….. they’re in the margin of error, and if they hold a seat or two, it will be the direct result personal, rather than national issues. And OTH will be impossible to work out.

Whatever happens between now and Feb 25th – history of some sort awaits us, I think….