Irish Polling Report

A place to discuss Irish opinion polls

Some of the crowd are on the pitch…..

with 19 comments

Well, another two polls today. A Hearld Poll of Dublin (using L/MB) as indicated that LP maintain their lead in the Capital, but all eyes this evening are on an national poll from them, in tomorrows Indo, which shows FG pulling well ahead of LP, , and FF and SF falling further behind the second party. While the poll was taken over the weekend, before the Valentine’s Night debate, indications are that this didn’t sway many – if any – voters, and so we can I think say that, short of a car crash moment, FG will emerge from the election as the largest party with LP the second biggest, and the only question now is whether Kenny & Co. will have the option of ruling without LP.

Anyways, the result, with the projections from the spreadsheet in brackets;

FF 12% (8 seats)
FG 38% (74 seats)
LP 23% (49 seats)
SF 10% (8 seats)
GP 1% (0 seats)
OTH 16% (27 seats)

Obviously, the apparent collapse in the FF vote is of course remarkable – but 8 seats? Well, maybe not, but that’s roughly what they’re looking at on these figures. Their big problem is that the areas where they may expect to get about a half above their national polling are largely in 3-seaters in the West of Ireland. To get getting 20%+ in those areas while 12% nationally, they’d have to be averaging 6% or so in places like Dublin , where they’re closer to 10%. Add to this and a transfer repellent brand, and they are utterly dependent on improving their FPV on the day. Now, they may do so, but any ‘Martin Bounce’ has been and gone, and this poll was taken after Martin was adjudged to have won the TV3 debate, so there’s no guarantee they’ll make up ground, and indeed could even lose some, as they may become to be seen as irrelevant – any hope they had of catching LP for 2nd place are surely gone now, with a vote of around half that of LP.

FG will be cock-a-hoop. Two polls in a row, from different companies, showing them at 38%. They go into the last week of the campaign assured of being the largest party after the election, and require only a small swing to get an overall majority. Even on these figures, there are Indos in Monaghan, Clare, DubS, GalE, GalW, KerryS, Mayo, Roscommon, TippN, TippS, Wicklow & poss. DSE that might be open to a deal (in the national interest, of course), which could give them an overall majority.

LP may prefer to not be down 1%, but given the movement in other polls they can’t be surprised, and indeed may even be relieved. It does seem likely that they’ve lost ground to FG on their right, but have gained an almost equivalent amount on their left. They have a week left to push their way back into contention, and it now seems to be a question as to whether Gilmore will be Tanaiste or Leader of the Opposition. Neither would be a poor result for a party historically used to being 10-15%, and to double this would be a historically brilliant result. However, if they don’t improve on it over the last week, they will look back on this as an opportunity missed.

SF will be concerned. Two polls now in a row, from different companies, both showing them at 10%. Again, that would be about half higher than last GE and a good result, but in the 10 polls between 3rd December and 6th February they averaged 13.2%, but two polls at 10% in a couple of days suggests that some of this has slipped. They will hope that Gerry Adams much improved performance in yesterday’s leader debate will turn this around, but there’ll be some nerves in Parnell Square reading these figures.

GP …. well … 1% in one poll, 3% in another ….. they’re in the margin of error, and if they hold a seat or two, it will be the direct result personal, rather than national issues. And OTH will be impossible to work out.

Whatever happens between now and Feb 25th – history of some sort awaits us, I think….

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Written by Dotski

February 15, 2011 at 11:14 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

19 Responses

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  1. No way can i believe SF on only 8 seat, even if they only get 10%. they will have gained a lot of protest votes after Adam’s impeccable presentation last night (of air-headed nonsense IMO though!).

    i find 8 seats for FF to be way too optimistic from an anti-FF POV. it is a 40% reduction on Kavanagh’s FF seat projection.

    i will be a bit sad to be honest if there are no Greens in the next Dail. just because they messed up by supporting FF, doesn’t mean environmental, planning and transport issues have gone away

    bprob

    February 15, 2011 at 11:43 pm

    • Re SF, they’d be close in a few more, but there does appear to be a tipping point for them around the 10% mark, and yes, I’d agree they are likely to gain following the debate last night, but on a tenth of the vote nationally they’d not make a much better breakthrough – don’t forget they got 7% last time but only won 4 seats.

      FF, well as I say, they may poll better, but their problem if they are at 12% is that they are just a bit below that in Dublin (where there are a lot of 4 & 5 seaters they would miss out on) which menas they aren’t much above their average in the West, where most of the constituencies are 3-seaters. It’s a poor distribution to pull seats in when on 12%, and f they break though to 17% or so they greatly improve their bonus, but on 125 it wouldn’t be looking good.

      As for Adrian’s projections, I’m reluctant to say anything that sounds like I’m finding fault with his method, but even before I refined the spreadsheet for regional variations it was much closer than his on the regional figures. Of course time will tell….

      Agree totally on GP, but I’d say that, unlike the PDs, they represent a politics that doesn’t require political representation to continue. Even if reduced to 0 seats in DE, they’ll continue and return renewed in 4-5 years. And who knows, a week left, 2 or 3% must be up for grabs….

      Dotski

      February 16, 2011 at 12:00 am

  2. I’d agree with the SF onm more than 8 seats. To be honest i think it’d be disappointing not to break 10. Looking at the herald poll would suggest 10 yet the national(26 counties mind you) suggests 8. Bit to consider there.

    Also the Indos seem to have captured a vote block that was residing with SF. Strong show by ADams will help but also the fact that when you ask a lad on the phone who’ll he vote for and he says indo then he may be thinking Shane Ross, david mcWilliams (I know not running but point holds) but when people go into the booth they wont be able to vote for them. I think (maybe hope) that when it comes down to it that indos wont get 16% because people simply cant vote for the indo they have in mind.

    any thoughts?

    que

    February 15, 2011 at 11:49 pm

    • Would absolutely agree that the OTH is by far the hardest category to call. They are (IMO) likely to fall back over the last week, but where they will go, really your guess is as good as mine.

      I do think the fact that a FG/IND govt is now being talked of will have some effect, but it will be both positive and negative, with the net effect too hard to call.

      Dotski

      February 16, 2011 at 12:03 am

  3. 8 seats for Fianna Fáil? jaysus that’s really bad but hopefully it comes true.

    RahenyFG

    February 16, 2011 at 12:08 am

    • Yeah, but I suspect they’ll poll better on the day. Also there’s several “Indos” (e.g. Mattie McGrath) who I can see re-joining the party over the course of the next Dail.

      Still, we’ll see…

      Dotski

      February 16, 2011 at 12:10 am

  4. I wonder if the 8% jump in FG’s share is more down to the 30% in the previous poll being a rogue and the poll is coming back into line. The Red C poll showed a clear shift to FG so there is a move to them not surprising as they have run the best campaign.

    As was said above I’ll will be astounded if SF don’t show a pick up in the post debate polls, as for FF 8 seats is way too low but a Canada ’93 result would be well deserved!

    A nice thought to dwell on!!

    The Oncoming Storm

    February 16, 2011 at 12:26 am

    • hopefully it’s not raised ppl’s hopes too much! I find it hard to see them polling that low on the day, and just a few percentage points increase would put a lot of their seats over the tipping point, so odds are it’ll be more than 8. But they’ll ahve to work like bejasus locally to pull it out, and one does wonder if these figures will galvanise or demoralise their teams.

      Dotski

      February 16, 2011 at 1:46 am

  5. […] more like it may happen. The most recent poll put them on 12% – that could leave them with as few as 8 seats. That would surely mean the end of the party. It’s hard to see how they could climb back from […]

    ge11 – day 14 |

    February 16, 2011 at 2:59 am

  6. Dotski, I take your point that many last seats are marginal, in particular where there are far left candidates running & also strong second Labour and good SF candidates.

    Personally I think SF will end up with somewhere around 15 seats. I have listed 13 below.

    Cav/Mon 2
    Louth 1
    Don N W 1
    Don S W 1
    Dub SC 1
    Dub C 1
    Dub NE 1
    Dub NW 1
    Dub MW 1
    La/Of 1
    Ker N 1
    Co N C 1

    The transfer rates between left candidates is going to be crucial. However it seems clear that all right thinking people are moving rapidly towards FG.

    The Lab party’s mistake seems to have been to assume that those people would ever vote for them. SF seem to be losing votes in some areas to ULA, however I think they will still end up in the 13-16% range. The problem is that their candidates need approx. .7 of a quota on the first count in a 4 seater & perhaps .6 of a quota in a 5 seater to stay in long enough to get ahead of competing left candidates and garner transfers. The IT poll of Cork NC showed exactly that.

    Niall

    February 16, 2011 at 11:49 am

    • 15 seats for sf would be more in line with other polls, and they may well recover to that level, and Id agree all those seats should be very real targets for them.

      Anonymous

      February 16, 2011 at 3:19 pm

  7. Seems like a very big seat bonus for Labour there Dotski? 49 seats on 23%.

    Daniel Dunne

    February 16, 2011 at 2:42 pm

    • Not especially, it’s 2.13 seats for every percentage point of the vote. They won 2.0 seats per percentage point in both of the last two GEs, and that was despite being a smaller party, with more ‘wasted’ votes in constituencies where they didn’t win a seat, dragging that average figure down. In this election they’ll win a seat in most constituencies, and would, mathematically, expect a better ratio as a result, but the increase is in fact very modest.

      Anonymous

      February 16, 2011 at 3:14 pm

    • First of all, “anonymous” is me, dotski, was unaware I’m not logged in when using phone app…. just another point, on the boards.ie poll, LP are on 23.6%, and they have used the preferences to conduct stv ‘elections’ for constituencies comprising of 119 of the 166 seats, and LP have ‘won’ 39. Assuming the remaining seats fall proportionately to that, they’d end up with about 53 seats, which is a ratio of 2.29, so 2.13 isn’t over generous at all.

      Anonymous

      February 16, 2011 at 6:35 pm

      • Oh, this is all more complicated that I realized! Hope you and family are all well! DD

        Daniel Dunne

        February 16, 2011 at 11:44 pm

  8. So whats the seat bonous for Fine Gael

    nailer

    February 18, 2011 at 6:59 pm

    • It would represent 1.95 seats per percentage point, an increase of about 4% on ’07

      Dotski

      February 18, 2011 at 8:09 pm

  9. […] […]

    RedC predictions? - Page 6

    February 19, 2011 at 12:28 pm


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