It is now?
The two last polls for Sunday papers are out, and both show a swing from LP to FF.
The Lansdown/Millward Brown effort (leaked, denied then re-released on p.ie earlier today) , gives the following figures (my seat projections in brackets);
FF 16% (18)
FG 37% (73)
LP 20% (40)
SF 12% (15)
GP 1% (0)
OTH 14% (20)
The RedC broke later (but was confirmed earlier!) and gives the following figures (again, IPR projections in brackets)
FF 16% (18 seats)
FG 39% (78 seats)
LP 17% (33 seats)
SF 12% (16 seats)
GP 2% (0 seats)
OTH 14% (21 seats)
As you can see, both projections indicate FG reaching mid-70s, and in the RedC figures they are 5 seats (+ CC) short of an overall majority, and the momentum would appear to be with them. Even if they didn’t increase between now and Friday, they could cobble a government together with Indos, which would suggest that, should they fall short of the 84 seats, they will have a number of potential governmental colleagues. It would appear that, short of a car crash performance by Enda next week, FG will be pushing for the overall majority in the final week, and have probably started considering in a strategic way their options.
LP will be very worried by these figures. As you can see, there’s a big difference in seats between the 3% variance in their vote, there’s a tipping point in there somewhere between 17-20%, it seems. While the 3% drop obviously hits them in terms of seats, a big problem for them is the possible recovery of FF, with whom they now appear to be competing with to lead the opposition. In practical terms, it’s hard to see them lose enough ground to be overtaken in seats, but it cold happen in votes, which would for FF mean a successful campaign (and a terrible one for Gilmore). The next week will be a crucial one for them, and Gilmore may prepare himself for having to choose between being Tanaiste, or leader of the opposition.
FF will be quietly relieved to see a small recovery in these polls, and the danger that they may finish behind SF appears to have receded. However, unless their attractiveness for transfers has improved, they will be hard pushed to beat LP on seats.
SF will, while disappointed to see a FF recovery make their 4th placing look settled, will be relieved that two polls placing them on 10% have turned out to be a temporary dip. The Greens appear condemned to losing all their seats, and Indos maintain their strong showing in the polls.
Off to have dinner, but I’ll be back with details of the prediction competition and other stuff, hopefully tonight (assuming I’ve not turned to the drink by then……)
D
Irish Polling Report 
Yes, Drink seems the only solution!
Niall
February 19, 2011 at 7:55 pm
Whisky and Optional Pistol?
irishpancake
February 19, 2011 at 8:28 pm
I’d probably miss! 😉
Dotski
February 19, 2011 at 11:07 pm
[…] Particularly if these projections by dotski and Adrian Kavanagh are […]
More polls… … and Poles « The Cedar Lounge Revolution
February 19, 2011 at 9:21 pm
Seems like a bit of a Gilmore Head Wind at this stage. They put themselves in an invidious position – for the second election in a row (remember Mullingar?!) and can’t really decide where they should be in (as someone on the radio described it earlier) our two and a half party system. The “Gilmore for Taoiseach” slogan might have offered up a hostage to fortune, but there’s a real conundrum for them now. The shift to the center made them less relevant. Unless FF gets completely annihilated, they could find themselves entirely irrelevant in the next Dáil – whether they are in government or in opposition!
TonyB
February 20, 2011 at 3:32 am
Well, I think in opposition they should be relevant if the second largest party in the Dail, as the incoming Govt will be very unpopular within 12-18 months (IMO). A lot will depend on how their new crop of TDs perform, as their difficulty will be that many of the PLP are quite old. Gilmore at 55 not so much, but unless the next GE is a snap one, many of their big guns won’t be running. Rabbitte is 61, Quinn is 64, Burton is 62. Shorthall at 56 would also be pushing it in 5 years time.
Basically there should be a new intake of TDs (although the numbers will depend on how the LP vote holds) but the like of Hannigan, Bacik, Kelly, White, O’Riordan, Nolan, Keaveney/Higgins, maybe Clancy, Gilroy etc will need to show themselves capable of bing more than bit players.
The worst outcome for LP (in my view) is that they go into Govt with 4-5 Ministers, mainly oloder ones, on a Prog for Govt dominated by FG’s agenda. If they do that, they will be wiped out in 5 years time.
Dotski
February 20, 2011 at 10:19 am
Dot, I agree. However even some of the new Deputies are on the wrong side of 50. Alex White I would suggest is a man of huge ability and very wide experience however he is around 54. He would also be someone who could make a deal with Sinn Féin. Some of the others you mentioned such as ÓRiordáin are problematic at this stage, unless of course he takes out Finian McGrath!
Niall
February 20, 2011 at 11:40 am
[…] Labour deputies, this may be their last shot at government. Over at Irish Polling Report, Dotski comments on the demographics: “many of the PLP are quite old. Gilmore at 55 not so much, but unless the next GE is a snap […]
ge11 – day 19 |
February 21, 2011 at 1:38 am