RedC breaks from the pack …..



The final poll from RedC during this campaign (and one presumes the last of any company until the polls close) has come out, and unlike those from the other companies, it suggests that the FG surge has continued, pushing them to the magical 40% figure.  Figures (plus uniform swing projected seats in brackets) are as follows;

FF 15% (17)

FG 40% (79)

LP 18% (35)

GP 3% (2)

SF 10% (11)

OTH 14% (22)

Clearly this is so close to FG getting a majority as makes no difference, the poll margin of error is significantly greater than that required to push them past 84 seats, and they could be lucky on transfers (although I’m assuming they’ll do well on these, especially OTH except in areas where this is a left-wing candidate).  They will be conscious though that they have been doing better in RedC (and LP worse) for 2 years or so, and in the last GE, RedC’s final poll was much further out than MRBI, particularly for the 3 main parties, despite being taken later than the MRBI one.  Then, RedC were 3.6% out for FF, 1.3% for FG, 0.9% for LP.  The MRBI effort was out by 0.6% for FF, 0.3% for FG, and  0.1% for LP.

LP will be hoping that the other polls (notably MRBI) which have them higher are more accurate, but it is notable that they are either steady or slightly up in the last poll for each company, and so it appears their campaign has been ending in a more successful manner than it started.  However, if the trend in RedC is correct, Gilmore may be leading a PLP of about 35-40 into opposition against a FG govt with a series of “understandings” with the Indo TDs.  Some will say, better to reign in hell than to serve in heaven, I suppose….

FF will be disturbed to see another poll pointing to a decline, rather than a recovery in their fortunes.  On these figures they are in real trouble, and it’s only the lower than average performance by SF that stops them doing even worse.  At this stage it’s hard to see them having the sort of recovery I initially expected of them.

SF will be slightly concerned to see a dip back to 10%, but can console themselves that this is (probably) normal movement within the margin of error.  GP by contrast may be given hope by a similar movement within the margin of error that puts them in “getting seats” territory, but this may be equally illusory.

Anyway, a reminder of the prediction competition – the prize is only a small donation to the charity of your choice, but bragging rights will of course be secured.  If you’re someone who has been slagging of the spreadsheet over on p.ie, I’d particularly suggest that you enter, to show us all how it’s done! 😉

 

EDIT: I’ve seen the poll report, and an interesting set of figures is the “how likely are you to vote for your party” question.  59% express themselves as having either made up their mind before the campaign (22%) or during it (37%), with the reaminder being either pretty sure but not completely (32%), or not at all (9%).

So what percentage of each party’s supporters made up their minds?  Figures are FF 61%, FG 69%, LP 71%, SF 69%, OTH 51% (no figure reported for GP, oddly enough).  While RedC say FF can take some comfort from this (reasoning being that many of the OTH vote is ex-FF), the quite low level of certainty among the FF voters suggests that they could do even worse on the day. It shoudl also not be assumed that uncertainty among former FF voters is a sign that FF will do well among those voters, as they may just be trying to choose among their non-FF options, and in most cases will take longer to decide as they’ve never voted against FF before.

Their deliberations could be informed by the question on most favoured Govt, with a FG/LP the most popular at 33%, but a growing number either wanting FG or FG/IND (32% combined between 2 options).  56% want LP in some sort of govt combination, although presumbly not all those who want LP/FF/SF wish to see them in with FG.