Waiting …
Well,
I’ve sat down and come to my final conclusions, and have (somewhat foolhardily, I suppose) decided to publish them, thereby setting myself up for ridicule, given some of the 43 constituencies are likely to go very differently. As I say, it’s not a portal on the future….
My national projected vote is roughly based on the MRBI figures and the general trend, plus some adjustments to the base votes to take account of constituency polling during the campaign. While RedC had a slight increase for FG in the margin of error in their last poll, the other two companies had them flattening, and I think that’s largely what was happening at the end of the campaign. On these figures, they would be well short of the 84 everyone is talking about, and which they were tipped to achieve on RTE radio the other day. LP similarly had appeared to have stopped the rot in all the polling towards the end. Some people see an on the day problem for them based on the 2009 Local/Euro elections and Donegal SW, but in GEs they’ve generally performed as the last MRBI polls projected, and I don’t see this being too different. Locals and Euros are a very different creature, and by-elections even more so (ask Catherine Murphy), but in GEs most ppl know pretty much how they will vote.
SF I have a little down, being ‘squeezed’ as smaller parties often are at the end. FF I see making only a small recovery on the day, and not enough to push them past territory more associated with LP. I have the GP just missing out in a couple of areas, although close enough that I won’t be surprised if Trevor Sargant in particular holds on. OTHs I see taking a decent block of seats.
Summary of my prediction is as follows.
| % | seats | |
| FF | 16.3% | 20 |
| FG | 37.9% | 73 |
| LP | 19.5% | 42 |
| GP | 2.0% | 0 |
| SF | 9.8% | 10 |
| oth | 14.5% | 21 |
FWIW, even including FF gene-pool, there’s only a mximum 11 “Enda-pendents”, making a FG-IND arrangement impossible without supplementary agreement from FF, who may yet find a role for themselves in the next Dail as a “loyal opposition” should negotiations on a Programme for Government break down between FG and LP.
Anways, these are my predictions – if you disagree with them, why not show me yours? 😉
I’ll be making projections tomorrow, initially based on the exit poll (on RTE sometime between 7am and 8am, but I can’t promise I’ll make it that early!) and then based on the tallies. The initial tally-based ones will be less reliable than the later ones, but if your party does better in the first 7 or 8 tallies that come in than one would expect, you can generally assume that its going to be a good day for you. Similarly, if they are all going badly ….
Anyways, enjoy the count, and who knows, we may be going this all over again in 6 months…..? 😉
| FF | FG | LP | GP | SF | OTH | ||||||||
| Carlow-Kilkenny | 5 | 25.4% | 1 | 40.2% | 3 | 13.5% | 1 | 4.7% | 6.6% | 9.7% | |||
| Cavan-Monaghan | 5 | 16.0% | 1 | 38.7% | 2 | 5.0% | 1.5% | 26.9% | 1 | 12.0% | 1 | ||
| Clare | 4 | 22.0% | 1 | 45.4% | 2 | 8.9% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 19.2% | 1 | |||
| Cork E | 4 | 16.5% | 37.1% | 2 | 29.9% | 2 | 0.8% | 9.2% | 6.4% | ||||
| Cork NC | 4 | 15.9% | 1 | 23.5% | 1 | 22.6% | 1 | 2.1% | 15.9% | 1 | 20.0% | ||
| Cork NW | 3 | 31.2% | 1 | 46.8% | 2 | 10.4% | 1.6% | 4.8% | 5.2% | ||||
| Cork SC | 5 | 22.4% | 1 | 40.2% | 3 | 16.1% | 1 | 3.0% | 7.3% | 11.0% | |||
| Cork SW | 3 | 23.3% | 1 | 40.0% | 1 | 17.7% | 1 | 3.8% | 7.6% | 7.7% | |||
| Donegal NE | 3 | 18.5% | 33.8% | 1 | 15.3% | 1 | 0.7% | 22.3% | 1 | 9.5% | |||
| Donegal SW | 3 | 19.4% | 1 | 28.8% | 1 | 9.4% | 0.6% | 27.3% | 1 | 14.6% | |||
| Dublin C | 4 | 7.9% | 20.5% | 1 | 27.7% | 1 | 0.6% | 11.3% | 31.9% | 2 | |||
| Dublin Mid-West | 4 | 13.3% | 31.8% | 2 | 25.5% | 1 | 6.1% | 12.1% | 1 | 11.2% | |||
| Dublin N | 4 | 14.9% | 32.7% | 2 | 23.7% | 1 | 10.7% | 0.0% | 18.0% | 1 | |||
| Dublin NC | 3 | 12.0% | 39.4% | 1 | 17.3% | 1 | 1.9% | 7.5% | 21.8% | 1 | |||
| Dublin NE | 3 | 11.6% | 32.6% | 1 | 30.0% | 2 | 2.2% | 14.6% | 9.0% | ||||
| Dublin NW | 3 | 13.2% | 22.3% | 1 | 36.9% | 2 | 0.5% | 19.5% | 7.6% | ||||
| Dublin S | 5 | 8.1% | 37.0% | 2 | 23.1% | 2 | 6.9% | 4.0% | 20.9% | 1 | |||
| Dublin SC | 5 | 4.6% | 23.0% | 1 | 40.1% | 3 | 0.6% | 10.9% | 20.9% | 1 | |||
| Dublin SE | 4 | 11.9% | 29.8% | 2 | 25.6% | 1 | 6.9% | 5.4% | 20.5% | 1 | |||
| Dublin SW | 4 | 11.5% | 32.9% | 2 | 27.5% | 1 | 1.1% | 18.7% | 1 | 8.3% | |||
| Dublin W | 4 | 14.3% | 25.0% | 1 | 32.5% | 2 | 0.0% | 6.8% | 21.4% | 1 | |||
| Dun Laoghaire | 4 | 17.4% | 1 | 30.7% | 1 | 31.7% | 2 | 3.2% | 3.9% | 13.1% | |||
| Galway E | 4 | 14.0% | 51.3% | 2 | 14.6% | 1 | 0.0% | 5.1% | 14.9% | 1 | |||
| Galway W | 5 | 13.5% | 1 | 36.5% | 2 | 14.3% | 1 | 2.5% | 5.8% | 27.4% | 1 | ||
| Kerry N | 3 | 13.8% | 39.3% | 1 | 17.1% | 1 | 0.7% | 22.5% | 1 | 6.7% | |||
| Kerry S | 3 | 15.9% | 30.6% | 1 | 15.8% | 0.4% | 5.7% | 31.5% | 2 | ||||
| Kildare N | 4 | 9.8% | 36.9% | 2 | 28.3% | 1 | 1.9% | 4.9% | 18.2% | 1 | |||
| Kildare S | 3 | 24.0% | 1 | 24.8% | 1 | 28.8% | 1 | 4.0% | 4.6% | 13.7% | |||
| Laois-Offaly | 5 | 28.6% | 2 | 40.4% | 2 | 8.0% | 0.6% | 9.8% | 1 | 12.6% | |||
| Limerick E | 4 | 15.1% | 1 | 40.0% | 2 | 25.5% | 1 | 0.7% | 7.1% | 11.7% | |||
| Limerick W | 3 | 24.3% | 1 | 51.8% | 2 | 17.1% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 4.0% | ||||
| Longford-Westmeath | 4 | 18.7% | 1 | 37.1% | 2 | 32.6% | 1 | 0.4% | 6.0% | 5.2% | |||
| Louth | 5 | 11.4% | 1 | 40.2% | 2 | 15.0% | 1 | 2.8% | 23.8% | 1 | 6.7% | ||
| Mayo | 5 | 16.9% | 1 | 56.9% | 3 | 8.2% | 0.0% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 1 | |||
| Meath E | 3 | 15.5% | 47.6% | 2 | 21.7% | 1 | 0.9% | 6.8% | 7.5% | ||||
| Meath W | 3 | 14.0% | 47.1% | 2 | 13.0% | 0.1% | 16.4% | 1 | 9.5% | ||||
| Roscommon S Leitrim | 3 | 14.6% | 46.1% | 2 | 12.4% | 1 | 0.8% | 11.1% | 14.9% | ||||
| Sligo N Leitrim | 3 | 17.4% | 1 | 45.3% | 2 | 9.6% | 0.8% | 13.7% | 13.2% | ||||
| Tipperary N | 3 | 13.7% | 31.1% | 1 | 14.2% | 1 | 0.4% | 5.9% | 34.6% | 1 | |||
| Tipperary S | 3 | 13.2% | 31.5% | 1 | 14.6% | 1 | 0.4% | 5.1% | 35.2% | 1 | |||
| Waterford | 4 | 13.4% | 43.9% | 2 | 18.6% | 1 | 0.0% | 9.5% | 14.6% | 1 | |||
| Wexford | 5 | 19.5% | 1 | 39.8% | 2 | 20.0% | 1 | 0.8% | 7.1% | 12.7% | 1 | ||
| Wicklow | 5 | 9.1% | 40.2% | 2 | 26.4% | 2 | 2.0% | 9.0% | 13.2% | 1 | |||
| 166 | FF | 20 | FG | 73 | LP | 42 | GP | 0 | SF | 10 | OTH | 21 |
Irish Polling Report 
Dotski, Thanks for all of your hard work. I was surprised to see the crowd in my own polling station earlier. It looked far greater than the normal after tea rush.
We will know in the morning if participation is up or not. Historically the higher the vote, the poorer FF does.
Better go and fill out my guesses, more in hope than expectation!
Niall
February 25, 2011 at 9:03 pm
Dotski – I love reading your predictions and as we both vote the same way I really hope your predictions come true – especially in Dun L – am slightly surprised that you are giving FF a seat there.
Valerie McDermott
February 25, 2011 at 9:33 pm
Cheers folks, I’ve enjoyed it myself (well most of the time!)
Yes, in DL I just think that FF have 2 strong candidates, and it only takes one of them to do well on the day to pull a seat. Mightn’t happen, but I think there will be a very modest FF bump on the day (that’s my gut, not my heart) which will be enough to push one of them over the line.
I may of course end up with egg on my face, and certainly don’t expect to get everything right, but we’ll see….
Dotski
February 26, 2011 at 1:04 am
Hey Dotski…very glad your (final) prediction was wrong for DSW with Lab/Eamonn Maloney winning the 2nd labour seat!..out of curiosity was it the poll trend or you intution/constituency analysis that caused you to change you foreecast at the last minute from 2 Lab to 2 FG?…you were calling it as 2 LB for months
abhaile
February 27, 2011 at 10:42 am
I was glad I called.t wrong too, but was hearing that the vote management wasn’t great, that combined with LP slipping and fg on the up, and them managing their vote better, was worried LP2 would slip behind ff1 whose transfers i reckoned would favour maloney. Worked out fine on the day, sorry if it had you unduly worried!
Dotski
February 27, 2011 at 1:21 pm
[…] Originally Posted by sport02 So John McGuirk's tweet about what he is hearing that FF will have an awful day, and Labour and SF will be disappointed may hold some merit? Not sure that's so true. Those figures (if true) are FF 16%, LP 19% and SF 10%. My final predictions were 16.3%, 19.5% and 9.8% (posted before I went off to vote) Irish Polling Report […]
Anonymous
February 26, 2011 at 2:24 am
[…] […]
No FG overall majority !!! - Page 2
February 26, 2011 at 9:09 am
[…] […]
RTE Exit Poll : FF 15.1% FG 36.1% LAB 20.5% SF 10.1% Green 2.7% Ind 15.5% - Page 3
February 26, 2011 at 9:14 am
[…] […]
RTE Exit Poll : FF 15.1% FG 36.1% LAB 20.5% SF 10.1% Green 2.7% Ind 15.5% - Page 7
February 26, 2011 at 9:20 am
[…] close to the exit poll, and arguably closer to my prediction yesterday (described by one tweeter as “spooky” earlier today) which […]
17:50 update « Irish Polling Report
February 26, 2011 at 6:55 pm
[…] system that keeps us awake for weekends on end. My system isn’t of course perfect, but my final prediction for the last GE was closer than any in the media or blogosphere, so you can have some confidence […]
Resolutions…. « Irish Polling Report
January 12, 2013 at 12:54 am