Archive for May 2011
Sorry for the delay there, I’d forgotten about the Champions League final – thankfully my better half didn’t….
I’ve run the figures, and quite a few very close calls, but not much movement. One difficulty is that ULA (and GP) figures have to be assumed as there’s no breakdown. As I’ve suggested before, there’s no excuse for this. ULA are a clearly identifiable group, with as many TDs as SF had in the past when measured in opinion polls, and as much a single entity as other formations in other countries that are measured by professional, reputable polling companies. Lumping them in with Shane Ross and co. is frankly unprofessional, and RedC have to put this right if they are going to start mending their reputation (which was over-egged by many in the run up to the last 2 GEs). In the absence of this, I’ve assumed no change in the respective ULA and GP votes, with the main swing from OTH to FG/LP coming from the “like-minded Independents” who are closer ideologically to FG in particular than ULA.
Anways, seat total projections are as follows;
Very close to the GE, FG and SF up a bit, FF and OTH down (ULA only lose a seat as a result of the Ceann Comhairle’s appointment), but all just a few hundred votes away from the same seats totals. It would appear that no-one is especially surprised to date with what the govt is doing, and any movement is unlikely to be seen until after the Summer recess and, IMO, after December’s Budget.
RTE have reported a RedC poll in tomorrow’s SBP which continues to show a relatively stable political landscape. Figures reported are;
FG 41% (up 2%)
LP 19% (up 1%)
FF 16% (n/c)
SF 11% (n/c)
OTH 13% (down 3%)
A slight bump for the Govt, possibly a result of the positive press the recent visits to these shores would have created. Interestingly I would have expected a slight downward movement for LP as Kenny got much more coverage than LP, but perhaps it all had very little impact. Certainly, the more recent events around the JLC pay schemes could be expected to have had a greater impact on the electorate.
Am in the middle of getting dinner together, but will do a seats projection later.