Plus ça change….
Sorry for the delay there, I’d forgotten about the Champions League final – thankfully my better half didn’t….
I’ve run the figures, and quite a few very close calls, but not much movement. One difficulty is that ULA (and GP) figures have to be assumed as there’s no breakdown. As I’ve suggested before, there’s no excuse for this. ULA are a clearly identifiable group, with as many TDs as SF had in the past when measured in opinion polls, and as much a single entity as other formations in other countries that are measured by professional, reputable polling companies. Lumping them in with Shane Ross and co. is frankly unprofessional, and RedC have to put this right if they are going to start mending their reputation (which was over-egged by many in the run up to the last 2 GEs). In the absence of this, I’ve assumed no change in the respective ULA and GP votes, with the main swing from OTH to FG/LP coming from the “like-minded Independents” who are closer ideologically to FG in particular than ULA.
Anways, seat total projections are as follows;
FG 79
LP 38
FF 16
SF 15
ULA 4
OTH 14
Very close to the GE, FG and SF up a bit, FF and OTH down (ULA only lose a seat as a result of the Ceann Comhairle’s appointment), but all just a few hundred votes away from the same seats totals. It would appear that no-one is especially surprised to date with what the govt is doing, and any movement is unlikely to be seen until after the Summer recess and, IMO, after December’s Budget.
TTFN,
Dotski
Irish Polling Report 
Mr. Hogan is suggesting reducing the number of deputies by approx. 20 using the existing provisions of Article 16.2.1, i.e. a TD per 30,000 people.
2° The number of members shall from time to time be fixed by law, but the total number of members of Dáil Éireann shall not be fixed at less than one member for each thirty thousand of the population, or at more than one member for each twenty thousand of the population.
This would raise particular issues outside of Dublin. For example all of Kerry could become the one five seater, Donegal would also follow suit, Mayo would fall to a four seater with a few thousand spare moving to Galway, Duiche Sheoige in South Mayo, which is really physically part of Galway, would do the job.
I wonder how much the results would change on the reduced number of deputies? Doing some back of the envelope calculations, it would be bad news for Fianna Fáil, however I wonder what your views are?
Niall
May 29, 2011 at 10:56 am
Good point. While we’d have to see precisely the mix of revisions and 3,4,5 seaters, it should reduce representation of smaller parties more so than others. However, the positioning of parties is quite volatile. The Tullymander of 1977 would probably have worked had there not been a swing in the vote from 1973.
If I have a chance over next week I might have a stab at likely outcome, particularly if I can find a suggested likely redrawing I can work from.
Dotski
May 29, 2011 at 5:11 pm