Park Life

As I’m sure you all know by now, the Millward Brown/Lansdowne poll also queried people on their Presidential choices. It’s still very early days, and there were 4 FG candidates on offer, and so there’s only so much we can take from it, but still, let’s see what there is…

Ratings given were as follows (figures after undecideds excluded in brackets);

Norris 21% (28%)

Michael D 19% (25.3%)

McGuinness 10% (13.3%)

Cox 7% (9.3%)

Gallagher 6% (8%)

Davis 4% (5.3%)

O’Dowd 3% (4%)

Doyle 3%(4%)

Mitchell 2% (2.6%)

Well, what does us tell us?  The only other poll by a reputable company on this election was last January, before the GE, when RedC did a survey.  On that occasion, 83% expressed an opinion, and so the 27% supporting Norris worked out as 32.5% after undecideds were excluded, and while it was a different set of candidates presented, it may be that he has lost some first preference support as a result of his own ‘Greek Crisis’.  Harder to measure (particularly as you won’t get honest answers) is how much worse he’ll do on transfers, as while there may have been a hardeneing of some support for him among those inclined to support him, he may also have lost a lot of casual preferences that he would’ve been dependent upon.  Still, he’ll be pleased that the headline is that he’s still the front-runner, a card he’ll use strongly in his efforts to be nominated.

Michael D will be very pleased.  He was on 11% in January with Finlay on 10%, and this suggests that he has taken most of his votes, pretty much en bloc, and then some.  He also knows that he’s seen as a front runner now, and this, combined with an enthusiastic campaign behind him (he is loved by many, and not just in the Labour Party) has to see him as very much a main contender.

Fine Gael will be bemused by this poll, particularly given its the same sample as yesterday’s party poll, and so can’t be attributed to a statistical oddity.  Four candidates on the ballot, each appealing to very different aspects of FG support, and they are at 29% between them.  Hard to see a single candidate garnering more than 22-24% on this basis, and so they’ll be looking closely at this.  McGuiness does appear their best bet, although Cox will argue that he would run the best campaign.  Doyle had barely entered the race formally, but will still be very disappointed at this showing, but not compared to Gay Mitchell (once dubbed “The Evil of Two Lessers”), who will be humiliated by this showing.  Certainly, it will take a brass neck for either of them to continue seeking the nomination, and I would expect at least one of them to quietly step aside in the next week or so.  HQ, however will be concerned to see none of the candidates setting the electorate alight, and I suspect their attentions may return to John Bruton, who they seem to think would be a big vote winner.

Of the rest, they’re all out of it.  On these figures, no-one cares for Gallagher (who is well known already), Davis (who many only know from her gaffe on the Presidential debate where she showed a poor knowledge of the powers of the President), and O’Dowd (whose heart is, apparently, in Ireland) are all polling too poorly to be considered in the race, and I suspect this will impact on their ability to be nominated.

A long way to go, and there may be surprises yet.  But there’s a few names we can start crossing off, on the basis of this poll.

D

Blue Tide

Well, the Government (particularly the larger Party), go from strength to strength.  I suspect this may all change after the next Budget, but to date, FG have gone up in popularity, and LP have maintained their support at roughly GE levels.

The Indo has a poll out tomorrow, and this time it’s by Millward Brown/Lansdowne (and not comedy pollsters Quantum ‘Research’).  Figures (with changes from the last MB/L held in the final week of the GE) are as follows;

FG 42% (+4)

LP 19% (-1)

FF 16% (+2)

SF 11% (NC)

Unfortunately, they continue to exclude ULA which, in my opinion, devalues the poll greatly, as you’ll know if you read my previous blog on the recent RedC poll. I’ve done a projection on the trusty IPR spreadsheet, and it makes happy reading for all the FG supporters out there.  Assuming ULA (and GP) at the same level as the GE (and there’s little to assume that the increase in FG is at the expense of Joe Higgins et al), the seat projections come out as follows;

FG 86

LP 35

FF 17

SF 14

ULA 3

OTH 11

 

Big story would be FG having an overall majority (and safe enough to rely on INDApendants), but surprising (to me, at least) is that this isn’t expecially at the expense of LP, who appear to be holding their own (winning and losing seats on these figures).  ULA would proportionately lose badly, despite being assumed not to have lost ground, but of the 2 seats lost, one would be in Dun Laoghiare as a result of the Ceann Comhairle being Sean Barrett, and the other would be Joan Collins losing out (very marginally) to FG in Dublin SC.

I’ll not spend the rest of the night poring over these figures, as (a) I’ve in-laws visiting, and (b) no great surprises here.

But I will say, to the polling companies ….. PLEASE …. ULA in the next poll.  They’ve FIVE seats, which is what SF have usually had, and they’ve been in every poll in the last 15-20 years or so.

D