Irish Polling Report

A place to discuss Irish opinion polls

Blue Tide

with 3 comments

Well, the Government (particularly the larger Party), go from strength to strength.  I suspect this may all change after the next Budget, but to date, FG have gone up in popularity, and LP have maintained their support at roughly GE levels.

The Indo has a poll out tomorrow, and this time it’s by Millward Brown/Lansdowne (and not comedy pollsters Quantum ‘Research’).  Figures (with changes from the last MB/L held in the final week of the GE) are as follows;

FG 42% (+4)

LP 19% (-1)

FF 16% (+2)

SF 11% (NC)

Unfortunately, they continue to exclude ULA which, in my opinion, devalues the poll greatly, as you’ll know if you read my previous blog on the recent RedC poll. I’ve done a projection on the trusty IPR spreadsheet, and it makes happy reading for all the FG supporters out there.  Assuming ULA (and GP) at the same level as the GE (and there’s little to assume that the increase in FG is at the expense of Joe Higgins et al), the seat projections come out as follows;

FG 86

LP 35

FF 17

SF 14

ULA 3

OTH 11

 

Big story would be FG having an overall majority (and safe enough to rely on INDApendants), but surprising (to me, at least) is that this isn’t expecially at the expense of LP, who appear to be holding their own (winning and losing seats on these figures).  ULA would proportionately lose badly, despite being assumed not to have lost ground, but of the 2 seats lost, one would be in Dun Laoghiare as a result of the Ceann Comhairle being Sean Barrett, and the other would be Joan Collins losing out (very marginally) to FG in Dublin SC.

I’ll not spend the rest of the night poring over these figures, as (a) I’ve in-laws visiting, and (b) no great surprises here.

But I will say, to the polling companies ….. PLEASE …. ULA in the next poll.  They’ve FIVE seats, which is what SF have usually had, and they’ve been in every poll in the last 15-20 years or so.

D

 

 

 

 

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Written by Dotski

June 21, 2011 at 9:55 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

3 Responses

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  1. […] Originally Posted by hiding behind a poster No, they shouldn't – that'd be a terrible idea, and they'd be roundly punished by the public. And if it did work, they'd then have a much smaller majority, and a much more coherent and credible Opposition party to face (Labour). You're probably right, but I'd be amazed in there weren't a few dizzier heads in the FG camp tonight reading this who'd be on for it, it's probably as good as the polls will get for both FG and LP (unless they manage some loaves and fishes job) My projections (FG on 86 seats) here…. […]

  2. […] non-Quantum Research) poll.  In it, the state of the parties is as follows with changes since the last Millward Brown/Lansdown poll in […]

  3. […] different candidates encompassing all the main elements of their party, was only 29%, despite the same poll having the party on 42% for party support.  That would have disappointed FG at nearly any point of their history, so to be […]


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