Irish Polling Report

A place to discuss Irish opinion polls

Govt in “popular polling figures” shock

with 3 comments

I have to admit, but at this stage, even I’m surprised….

Until very recently, the new Govt were polling exceedingly well, to an extent that probably had  Minsters pinching themselves.  Then along came a poll from “Behaviours & Attitudes” that suggested that, while FG were climbing, LP were suddenly plummeting to 12%.  I didn’t run them through my spreadsheet as they have no track record compared to other polling companies (no party polls on record) and running a simulation based on that poll would give it some credibility (like Quantum Research), but still ppl questioned this, and quoted the poll as if it was more reliable than that of previous polls from tried and tested companies.

Well, there’s been a poll from a real company since then, and it actually shows LP up and FG down, so it would appear that B&A was, to be charitable, a bit out of line…

The Sindo tomorrow have commissioned a real (i.e. non-Quantum Research) poll.  In it, the state of the parties is as follows with changes since the last Millward Brown/Lansdown poll in brackets;

FG 40% (- 2%)

Lab 20% (+1%)

SF 11% (NC)

FF 10% (-6%)

Greens 2%

Inds (incl ULA)  17%

The biggest story here is the collapse of FF (and the polling period, of Aug 30-Sep 14 missed the Presidential policy meltdown), and when I run the simulation, this is particularly stark.  It comes out at;

FG 80 seats

LP 41 seats

SF 16 seats

FF 6 seats (yes, yes, I know…)

ULA 4 seats

GP 0 seats

OTH 19 seats

Just a poll, I know, but very troubling for Martin, particularly with rumours of Dev Og wielding a dagger…. I’ve not got time to analyse further (missus has a TV show paused on Skyplus and is waiting…), but will post again tomorrow.

The same poll, by the way has figures for the Presidential election, however it doesn’t poll for SF and so is a little overtaken by events, missing out on the “My Goodness, McGuiness” factor.  However, for your info, it comes out at;

Higgins – 32%
Norris – 18%
Davis – 18%, up 5%
Mitchell – 17%, down 4%
Gallagher – 14%

On those figures, Gay Mitchell is sinking fast, and the Norris vote is likely to largely find itself in the Galwayman’s column come polling day.  Davis is making ground, but still a long way behind MDH, and a fair bit of that Indo vote is probably SFers who are reluctant to support another party.  Of course, Marty will take a fair bit from from Michael D,and Mitchell will be hoping that voters will react against the Derryman by swinging to him,  but its hard on those figures to see anything but the LP and SF candidates fighting it out on transfers, and I suspect MDH will do somewhat better in that department.

Anyways, am off. Have fun and stay safe….

D

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Written by Dotski

September 17, 2011 at 9:27 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

3 Responses

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  1. I wouldn’t rule B&A out, they’re a reputable co and they have some history in pol polls, certainty from a few years ago. Quantum are of course fictitious.

    david

    September 18, 2011 at 11:52 am

  2. […] comparison with the SDLP is tempting, but it’s also misleading. For one thing, there’s the pre McGuinness announcement poll… Fianna Fail is already down by 7% points on February’s disasterous showing. Sinn Fein […]

  3. I agree with the other David. B&A have a real quality reputation in the industry. Their latest poll looks really interesting. If anything Redc were out quite a bit on the last election.

    David mulligan

    October 22, 2011 at 11:26 pm


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