Irish Polling Report

A place to discuss Irish opinion polls

The next 7 years may drag on a bit….

with 3 comments

I’m assuming they’re correct (am tied up a bit later) but RedC figures have been extensively leaked, and they suggest that Gallagher is entering the final week in a very strong position.  The figures are;

Gallagher 40% +1,

Michael D 26% -1,

McGuinness 13% NC,

Norris 10% +3,

Mitchell 6% -2,

Dana 3% +1

Davis 2% -1

Apparently the polling took place early this week, but while there has been bad publicity for Gallagher in that period, there had been before it and he’s increased his vote, so I’d not be sure that would make much of a difference.

On the face of it, it looks nearly over.

Is there any comfort that Michael D’s campaign can take from this? Nothing really, and they’ll be hoping there is something in the detailed data that will make it closer in practise.  Firstly, the transfers of McGuinness, Norris & Mitchell.  If these are going to Gallagher/MDH in the same proportion as last week, it *is* over.  However, if the identification of Gallagher as FF has consolidated that “ex-FF” vote, it’s equally possible that the anti-FF vote will transfer better among each other. Michael D didn’t make up the ground he needed among these transfers last week, and will be hoping to do better in this week’s sample.

Another detail which will be pored over is the “likeliest voter” figures, which last week suggested Gallagher’s 12% lead last week would shrink to 8% if restricted to voters who rated their likelihood of voting as 7-10 to 10/10.  51% of voters were 10/10, close to the likely turnout, and so that’s not unlikely to be the actual voters on the day.  If that stays the same, the margin on FPVs would be 10% this week.  Combined with a better transfer rate, you could still be looking at a final count of 53/47, the sort of gap that could still be made up in the final week of the campaign.

But this would be lazarus stuff.  Michael D hasn’t really dropped, it’s just that everyone he would expect good transfers from has seen a decline in their vote, apparently moving to Gallagher.  Mitchell is now at 6% and doesn’t even seem a good bet for saving his deposit, something that would at least have got more FG voters out to vote, and then to transfer for him.  Similarly, Norris has not prospect, and those who demanded his right to run may have found other things to divert their attention.  McGuinness transfers were going strongly to Gallagher last week, and unless they have moved significantly they are not going to benefit Michael D.  And Davis now has slipped into the margin of error with Dana, and their transfers will be negligible.

Not over.  But not far off.  Only an effective “stop Gallagher” effort will stop his election next week, and at this stage it seems unlikely that this will materialise.

I need a glass of wine…..

D

EDIT: The Sunday Times also have a Behaviour and Attitudes poll. Slightly more encouraging for MDH, but less of a track record means less reliable. It gives Gallagher a lead of 38/26, MMG 17%, GM 8%, DN 6%, MD 3%, DRS 2%.

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Written by Dotski

October 22, 2011 at 5:36 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

3 Responses

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  1. I wonder would the age profile of Gallagher voters make any headway likely for MDH? I doubt it would do more than tinker the result slightly. Too much ground to make up I think.

    John Murray (@murrayhead84)

    October 22, 2011 at 5:50 pm

  2. With all the attacks, i think it only leaves one plausible explanation.
    Gallagher has been clearly identified as FF. The FF collapse at the last election wasn’t down to an anti-FF vote; it was down to an anti-Ahern, anti-Cowen, anti-economic collapse vote.

    The FFers who abandoned the party at the general election had/have no intention of abandoning the party long term.

    Once they knew Gallagher was one of their own, but wasn’t involved with Bertie et al, they were happy to give him their support
    Attacking him for FF links is the worst possible strategy it turns out.
    QED

    bprob

    bprob

    October 22, 2011 at 7:22 pm

    • After the developments of last night and today, i think we’ll have to disregard the last opinion polls. I cannot see those numbers being repeated on thursday.
      Gallagher might still win, but it will be marvellously close

      bprob

      October 25, 2011 at 9:56 pm


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