Party time….

While we’re waiting for tomorrow’s Presidential count, I though it might be distracting to look at the 2 party polls that were largely ignored (in part by me!) that accompanied the Presidential polls at the weekend.

State of the parties (Red C first, then MRBI, then the average) were as follows;

FG 31%,  36%,  33.5%

LP 17%,  19%,  18%

SF 16%,  15%,  15.5%

FF 14%,  15%,  14.5%

GP 1%*  ,   1%,  1%

OTH 21%,  14%,  17.5%

First off, RedC are now lumping the GP into the OTH category, along with ULA, and so I’ve had to assume their score is the same as MRBI to be consistent.  For ULA, I’ve again assumed a similar proportionate rise as the rest of OTH.

Secondly, there is a massive difference between the polls for FG (much higher in MRBI) and OTH (similarly in RedC).  This would normally be off the scale unless one was a rogue poll, but I suspect it’s a spillover related to the ups and downs of Indo candidates in what has been a very volatile presidential election.  Given more FG voters are supporting Independents than Gay Mitchell, you would expect this to have a short-term impact this has on what voters think their behaviour would be in a GE.

Taking the average of the two figures (a mini Poll-of-polls if you like) and the spreadsheet projects the following figures;

FG  68 seats

LP  35 seats

SF  24 seats

FF  13 seats

ULA  6 seats

GP  0 seats

OTH  20 seats

No great surprises I think, the main question is whether FG are artificially low (and OTH/ULA artificially high) as a result of the MRBI poll.  I suspect FG would do slightly better if a GE was held tomorrow, but could go down to close to the MRBI finding if there was a GE after December’s budget, as clearly there’s a ‘new’ FG vote that’s open to offers.  Labour, while they are holding up extremely well, I suspect they are getting a bit of a bounce from Michael D, and will do very well to be in this territory come January.

SF are doing quite well, but no better than in polls before the last GE, and so I would be very slow to say there has been a significant boost generated from the McGuinness candidacy, and they are no longer ahead of Labour in the polls. Even so, they are well placed to pick up on dissatisfaction with Labour post-budget, and unless the Govt has found €20 billion behind a sofa in Merrion Street, I suspect SF will be about 3% ahead of Labour in the January polls.

FF will be disappointed to be back where they were polling before the GE, but with no (explicit) candidate in #Aras11, it probably isn’t as bad as it could be, and they too will be hoping to pick up on post-Budget anti-Govt sentiment (although I suspect their success in this will be limited, given most people will still blame them for the broad thrust of the Budget, if not the individual details). I’d imagine they will try to argue that aspects of the approach of the Govt, rather than the bottom line will be their tack, but their problem is that there is a plurality of opposition parties and Independents.  If they were the only really opposition party, they could expect some traction, but if FG/LP voters don’t like what is proposed in December, they are more likely to go to SF/ULA/OTH than to the party that everyone else blames for the need to have a painful fiscal adjustments in the first place.  That said, if LP fall in Dec/Jan, they are likely to fall below FF in FPVs, if not seats.

Other than that, little to comment upon, given the miserly detail on ULA et al.  I would note that the broad left would have about 73 seats on this projection, which might have longer term implications, but is more likely to reflect a time when a majority of voters are about to give their #1 to Michael D, SF, or David Norris in another type of election.  I suspect it will not be as pleasing to my eyes come January.

But we’ll see, eh?

D