Sometimes its the little things….

Another poll out tomorrow from RedC in the SBPost. The figures quoted show little movement (and the movement is complicated by the fact that they are quoted as from the last poll published in the paper, rather than the last RedC, which was for Paddy Power), however, they add to a drift, and appear to put FF ahead of Lab in seats for the first time since the GE, ans SF barely behind (both have been ahead in votes in a number of polls).

Figures, and IPR seat projections, are as follows;

FG 30%,60
FF 18%,31
SF 17%,24
LP 14%,25
OTH 21%,26

Some concern there for Labour, and apparently there will be data in the paper tomorrow showing that their remaining support is less fixed than that of other parties, notably SF.

FF of course will be delighted with this showing, but now face a problem that traditionally was one for their opponents. By the time of the next election, they will largely be looking to new candidates, with the class of 1997-2011 retired, and will need to build these up to combat the incumbency of FG and LP TDs. However, assuming this happens post the next LEs, I suspect they’ll cope with this. As long as a new force doesn’t emerge on the populist right to mop up some of the OTH vote (anyone seen Ganley?) they are well placed to present themselves as the “official opposition”.  SF will be very pleased, but given their past difficulties in delivering the votes on the day, and the time that’s likely to pass between now and a GE, they’ll not be getting carried away with themselves.

Other than that, there’s little more can be said before more complete figures emerge.

The same poll shows a majority supporting the fiscal compact vote, although tight enough for this to change. It’s been tweeted by the MD of RedC that there a majority against among older/more likely voters, however, so that will be tight if the text requires constitutional change.  This snippet is somewhat surprising, as there have been a number polls in recent Euro-referenda where older voters were more pro-EU than their younger counterparts.  I’ll read the full figures tomorrow with interest.

Anyways, that’s all we’ve got time for.

Till the next one….

 

D

First RedC of 2012….

As most of you will be aware, RedC have published their first poll since last month’s Budget, and it makes somewhat comforting reading for the Government parties, in that they are up from the last RedC, if down from the last General Election.  Party standings, along with the IPR seat projections, as follows….

FG  33% – 63 seats

FF  17% – 23 seats

LP  16% – 31 seats

SF  14%  – 23 seats

GP  3% – 2 seats

ULA* 2.87% – 5 seats

OTH*  14.13%-19 seats

* I have apportioned the ULA share of OTH based on their share of that vote in the last GE.  The poll makes mention of the Socialist Party being 3% in Dublin, which is only what Joe Higgins and Clare Daly got between them last time, but the sample is too low to make any great inference from that.

My initial reaction was very much one of surprise, as I had expected the Government to lose votes following the Budget.  It may be, as Richard Collwell (RedC’s MD) suggested that the harsh budget was already  ‘priced in’ to the polling figures recorded last month.

Otherwise, it’s all pretty much as you were, except for the Greens, who poll 3% (up from 1.85% in the GE), which would give them 2 seats on my projections (although only marginally in both cases).  Given this is the margin of error, it’s too soon to say they are experiencing a recovery, but a couple of more polls saying the same thing and they’ll be – most likely – on the way back into the game.

One aspect of the poll is that it is another mainstream company result that massively contradicts Behaviour & Attitudes, currently the company of choice of the Sunday Times.  Their most recent effort (Dec 18th) had FG 30%, LP 11%, FF 20% , SF 21%, GP 3%(up 1%), OTH 15%.  Obviously, two polls either side of a Budget by different companies would be expected to be different, but FG 3% and LP 6% lower, FF 3% higher, SF 7% higher …. I don’t think so.  As pointed out before, their findings are well out on those of companies with an established track record of accurately predicting GE results, and unless something has happened to the other companies, there’s something wrong somewhere with B&A.  No offence intended (and it appears to have caused some in some quarters) but they’ve yet to convince me that they’re in the same league as the big 3 for this sort of poll.

Getting back to today’s RedC.  There’s also polling regarding the €100 annual Household charge.  The headline figures are;

42% say they are liable, and intend paying

24% say they don’t know if they are liable

19% say they are not liable (which seems a tad low to me)

15% say they are liable, but do not intend paying

Interestingly, Dublin voters are more likely to pay than those outside the capital (only 7% of Dubs are in the ‘liable but won’t pay’ category).  The more working class (and the more likely one is to vote for the left) the liklier one is to be a refusnik, with SF voters the most opposed to paying the charge.  Whether this is related to an ideological opposition, or simply that these voters have the least disposable income, is of course a matter of conjecture.  This shoudl be good news for SF, as they are better placed to pick up the votes of these people than ULA, who are very heavily based in Dublin (OK and Tipp South).  Unsurprisingly, those who are undecided about which party they would vote for are also the group who are most likely to be unsure as to whether they are liable for the tax….bet they vote in X-factor though…!

Anyways, sin é….  TTFN

D