Irish Polling Report

A place to discuss Irish opinion polls

Sometimes its the little things….

with one comment

Another poll out tomorrow from RedC in the SBPost. The figures quoted show little movement (and the movement is complicated by the fact that they are quoted as from the last poll published in the paper, rather than the last RedC, which was for Paddy Power), however, they add to a drift, and appear to put FF ahead of Lab in seats for the first time since the GE, ans SF barely behind (both have been ahead in votes in a number of polls).

Figures, and IPR seat projections, are as follows;

FG 30%,60
FF 18%,31
SF 17%,24
LP 14%,25
OTH 21%,26

Some concern there for Labour, and apparently there will be data in the paper tomorrow showing that their remaining support is less fixed than that of other parties, notably SF.

FF of course will be delighted with this showing, but now face a problem that traditionally was one for their opponents. By the time of the next election, they will largely be looking to new candidates, with the class of 1997-2011 retired, and will need to build these up to combat the incumbency of FG and LP TDs. However, assuming this happens post the next LEs, I suspect they’ll cope with this. As long as a new force doesn’t emerge on the populist right to mop up some of the OTH vote (anyone seen Ganley?) they are well placed to present themselves as the “official opposition”.  SF will be very pleased, but given their past difficulties in delivering the votes on the day, and the time that’s likely to pass between now and a GE, they’ll not be getting carried away with themselves.

Other than that, there’s little more can be said before more complete figures emerge.

The same poll shows a majority supporting the fiscal compact vote, although tight enough for this to change. It’s been tweeted by the MD of RedC that there a majority against among older/more likely voters, however, so that will be tight if the text requires constitutional change.  This snippet is somewhat surprising, as there have been a number polls in recent Euro-referenda where older voters were more pro-EU than their younger counterparts.  I’ll read the full figures tomorrow with interest.

Anyways, that’s all we’ve got time for.

Till the next one….

 

D

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Written by Dotski

January 28, 2012 at 10:41 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

One Response

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  1. […] few of the ST’s Behaviour and Attitudes Poll has been out of sync with other recent polls, notably the last Red C poll a few weeks back. But it doesn’t control for likelihood to vote in the way the Red C poll […]


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