Back to reality….

Well, after a flurry of giddy excitement following last week’s B&A poll with the Sunday Times, another poll has come out from a company with a track record, and, as I suggested at the time on Twitter, it continues to show B&A to be well out of line with all the big boys, particularly with in respect of SF and LP.  Last week, B&A were arguing SF were 2.5 times LP’s support.  This week, RedC are reporting them as within the margin of error of one another.  Given the record of them and the other top-3, and given RedC under-estimated LP by 2.5% in their final pre-election poll last year (and over-estimated SF by 2.1%), B&A’s findings look implausible, to say the least.

Anyway, enough of dissing B&A, what do tonight’s figures tell us?  The following are the party standings, with the IPR projections in brackets (I’ve had to assume GP, ULA and OTH as they’re not broken down, basically GP at GE levels, ULA and OTH increasing at the same pro-rata rate.  If you don’t like those assumptions, take it up with the people commissioning the polls, as they tell RedC et al what parties they want tested).

FG (nc)	30%	59
LP (+2)	16%	31
FF (-1)	17%	22
SF (+1)	18%	27
ULA	3%	5
GP	2%	0
OTH	14%	22

 

So, not much to see here.  SF are doing well, but not in the crazy territory previously reported.  I suspect their strategists will be happier to see steady growth in a reliable poll than 25% in one of lesser reliability.  Some might think they’ll have been damaged subsequently by the ‘inkgate’ business, but I suspect, jokes aside, it’ll do them little harm.  FG seem to be steady enough, staying in the 30s (just) and I think they are unlikely to budge too far from there in the near future.  LP will be pleased enough to be reported up 2%, although it’s still down on the GE.  And FF will be worried, as I understand this poll was taken before O’Cuiv broke ranks over the Fiscal Pact Treaty, and yet has them down (albeit by 1%).

Speaking of which, the same poll shows (perhaps surprisingly) some movement in favour of the Treaty.  We are told that in reply to the question “How do you think you would currently vote in such a referendum?”, the figures were;

“Yes: 60% (+7% on Jan 29 Red C poll)

No: 40% (-7% on Jan 29 Red C poll)

Figure excludes ‘don’t knows’ (26%)”

Far too early to call.  But if you’d asked me yesterday to call it, I would have said it was facing defeat.  The fact that this shows a trend in the opposite direction…. I don’t know, but if pushed I’d say it’s 50/50, and will depend on the quality of the campaigns.

Interesting times….