Irish Polling Report

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Another RedC poll came out earlier this week, this time commissioned by Paddy Power.  You’ll probably have read the details already if you follow me on Twitter so I won’t be poring over the details in micro, but I’ve just got around to the seat projections this morning, and so here they are….

Projected result % seats
FG 35.00% 71
LP 16.00% 31
FF 15.00% 13
SF 14.00% 23
ULA 3.07% 5
GP 1.85% 0
OTH 15.08% 23

100.00% 166


As before, they’ve not broken down GP/ULA/OTH, which limits the accuracy of my projections.  I’ve again taken GP at GE levels, and ULA as the same proportion of ULA/OTH as at the GE, but would really prefer if I had the actual data.  But there you go.

FG of course will be well pleased with this, particularly as it comes before, rather than after, the expected post-Ard Fheis bounce parties generally receive, putting them just a wee bit below what they received in the GE.  Anti-FF sentiment resulting from Mahon, and the China trip, can both be expected to have given them a bit of a lift.

LP will be similarly pleased, and the panic that gripped some when  B&A starting polling should be receding somewhat.  The Government is making difficult/unpopular/unfair (delete according to your views) decisions, and yet they are holding steady enough – not as high as the GE, but now, for the first time in a while, are the 2nd largest party in first preferences, and looking good to hold most of their seats, and indeed competitive enough for a gain here and there from FF.

FF may in fact be relieved this isn’t worse, given Mahon, but in reality, most of that was probably priced into their support level as it was.  If anything, they may have dropped a point or so in the Dublin area among those who still regard the Anoraked-one highly.  It’s noticeable that as they drop into the mid-teens, a lot of their seats come into play, and they should still be quite twitchy.  If another party on the centre-right/right emerges in the next year or so, they may sink closer to oblivion.

SF may be disappointed by this one, although it’s not too far south of what they are normally getting.  It may be that their position on the Household Charge (basically, as far as I can make out, “we’re not paying, but we’re not encouraging anyone else not to”) is confusing their supporters, and not as simple as the outright call to arms of the ULA on this matter.  Certainly the surge for OTH is likely to include some movement from SF to ULA, I suspect.  But I’m dubious that this will be a long-term problem for them, particularly if the ULA tactic ends in tears for some voters, as it may well do (a consideration I suspect informed the SF position).

Other than that, not a lot to get excited about.



Written by Dotski

March 31, 2012 at 12:04 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

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