Irish Polling Report

A place to discuss Irish opinion polls

Stability Treaty I….

with 2 comments

Well, the polls are closing in about 10 minutes, so you’ve probably made your mind up by now.

I’ll not second guess what’s happened, turnout looks like it will be a factor, which would be expected to eat into the Yes poll-lead, and the NO side appear to have been working harder around town.  I’ll be surprised if it isn’t very close…

What I *do* have for you is a little exercise I did with tomorrow’s tally in mind.  Looking at the last 4 EU referenda, I calculated (estimated in some cases due to constituency revisions) what the average YES vote was in each constituency, and from that worked out the sort of figure I would expect there tomorrow *if it was a dead heat*.

Now, obviously this is just a guide, and there are people who were Yes for Lisbon & Nice who oppose this (and vice versa).  Indeed, there were individuals who both opposed and supported both of those treaties!  But is should give a decent guide as to whether the tallies coming in indicate a likely Yes or No, rather than represent a particular political strain in those constituencies.

The figures come out as follows;

Carlow Kilkenny 52.78%
Cavan Monaghan 48.87%
Clare 54.15%
Cork East 48.16%
Cork NC 42.03%
Cork NW 50.50%
Cork SC 49.42%
Cork SW 49.58%
Donegal NE 39.54%
Donegal SW 40.59%
Dublin C 45.54%
Dublin MW 45.44%
Dublin N 53.35%
Dublin NC 50.97%
Dublin NE 47.30%
Dublin NW 42.04%
Dublin S 60.34%
Dublin SC 43.88%
Dublin SE 57.75%
Dublin SW 42.45%
Dublin W 49.96%
Dun Laoghaire 60.94%
Galway E 51.00%
Galway W 48.22%
Kerry N 44.66%
Kerry S 48.13%
Kildare N 55.83%
Kildare S 52.06%
Laois-Offaly 54.65%
Limerick E 49.73%
Limerick County 50.81%
Westmeath 49.53%
Louth 46.90%
Mayo 45.50%
Meath E 54.44%
Meath W 48.46%
Roscommon-LS 49.60%
Sligo LN 48.44%
Tipperary N 53.22%
Tipperary S 51.44%
Waterford 50.75%
Wexford 49.43%
Wicklow 51.76%

 

As you can see, this suggests that a Yes vote in Dun Laoghaire of, say, 59% actually shows the Treaty in trouble, whereas a No vote in Donegal NE of no more than 60% would mean the Yes side likely to shade it.  Notably, Dublin West (home to Joe Higgins) is a weather-vane, with 49.97%  needed by the Yes side to be the more optimistic (although this could be lower as a result of Joe being one of the more prominent NO campaigners).  Similarly Cork NW and Limerick City are very close to an expected 50/50 were there a 50/50 split nationwide.

So as the results come in, you might compare them with these figures, and it could give you a clearer picture than the spin doctors and local journalists are providing you.

Till the next one….

D

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Written by Dotski

May 31, 2012 at 10:02 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

2 Responses

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  1. Sterling work as ever – will make the early tallies FAR more interesting!!

    roheithir

    June 1, 2012 at 12:47 am

    • Ta, although when one TD declared it YES at 9:08 the drama left that a bit….!

      Dotski

      June 2, 2012 at 10:27 am


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