Stability Treaty I….

Well, the polls are closing in about 10 minutes, so you’ve probably made your mind up by now.

I’ll not second guess what’s happened, turnout looks like it will be a factor, which would be expected to eat into the Yes poll-lead, and the NO side appear to have been working harder around town.  I’ll be surprised if it isn’t very close…

What I *do* have for you is a little exercise I did with tomorrow’s tally in mind.  Looking at the last 4 EU referenda, I calculated (estimated in some cases due to constituency revisions) what the average YES vote was in each constituency, and from that worked out the sort of figure I would expect there tomorrow *if it was a dead heat*.

Now, obviously this is just a guide, and there are people who were Yes for Lisbon & Nice who oppose this (and vice versa).  Indeed, there were individuals who both opposed and supported both of those treaties!  But is should give a decent guide as to whether the tallies coming in indicate a likely Yes or No, rather than represent a particular political strain in those constituencies.

The figures come out as follows;

Carlow Kilkenny	52.78%
Cavan Monaghan	48.87%
Clare	54.15%
Cork East	48.16%
Cork NC	42.03%
Cork NW	50.50%
Cork SC	49.42%
Cork SW	49.58%
Donegal NE	39.54%
Donegal SW	40.59%
Dublin C	45.54%
Dublin MW	45.44%
Dublin N	53.35%
Dublin NC	50.97%
Dublin NE	47.30%
Dublin NW	42.04%
Dublin S	60.34%
Dublin SC	43.88%
Dublin SE	57.75%
Dublin SW	42.45%
Dublin W	49.96%
Dun Laoghaire	60.94%
Galway E	51.00%
Galway W	48.22%
Kerry N	44.66%
Kerry S	48.13%
Kildare N	55.83%
Kildare S	52.06%
Laois-Offaly	54.65%
Limerick E	49.73%
Limerick County	50.81%
Westmeath	49.53%
Louth	46.90%
Mayo	45.50%
Meath E	54.44%
Meath W	48.46%
Roscommon-LS	49.60%
Sligo LN	48.44%
Tipperary N	53.22%
Tipperary S	51.44%
Waterford	50.75%
Wexford	49.43%
Wicklow	51.76%

 

As you can see, this suggests that a Yes vote in Dun Laoghaire of, say, 59% actually shows the Treaty in trouble, whereas a No vote in Donegal NE of no more than 60% would mean the Yes side likely to shade it.  Notably, Dublin West (home to Joe Higgins) is a weather-vane, with 49.97%  needed by the Yes side to be the more optimistic (although this could be lower as a result of Joe being one of the more prominent NO campaigners).  Similarly Cork NW and Limerick City are very close to an expected 50/50 were there a 50/50 split nationwide.

So as the results come in, you might compare them with these figures, and it could give you a clearer picture than the spin doctors and local journalists are providing you.

Till the next one….

D